I’m seeing a wide range of opinions about the Huskies out there right now. Some fans are panicking after Saturday’s beating by Georgetown, while others are exhibiting patience.
No matter what, we’re only eight games in. Florida lost two of its first nine games in 2006/07 and went on to win the NCAA title. There’s still a lot of basketball to play.
Here’s where my head’s at right now with regard to this year’s Husky squad:
I’m not in panic mode. I’m really not. But, Saturday was a big-time wake-up call, and if you’re still looking at the Huskies as a darkhorse Final Four contender, it may be time to rethink your expectations, for now. (There’s actually a silver lining to this loss, but you’ll have to read on for a bit first.)
Why am I, for the moment, penciling the Huskies out of the national power category?
It’s easy to think that if Elston Turner buries a free throw in Lubbock, the Huskies are 7-1 right now – a good second half against Georgetown away from a perfect record. But, the danger signs have been on display for a while now, not only at Texas Tech, but in wins against San Jose State, Montana, and Cal State Northridge: poor shooting, too many turnovers, the lack of a third option on offense, a startling propensity to get beat by the ridiculously straightforward backdoor pass — the list goes on.
There was a part of me, and maybe you too, fellow diehards, that hoped the Dawgs would just raise their play when it was necessary to the level of their opposition. Saturday told me that these danger signs are actual weaknesses, not minor transgressions that can be turned on and off at will.
So, where does that leave us?
Now, instead of lamenting how weak the Pac-10 looks, I’m kind of glad. Consider the alternative: These 2009/10 Huskies might’ve been up a creek in the Pac-10 circa 2007/08. Weaknesses aside, we’ll compete this season and hopefully win the conference, because every team has obvious flaws.
We’re at the point now where the NCAA Tournament shouldn’t be considered a given anymore. We may be looking at a league that gets only two teams in this year. And if Cal were to win the conference, and, say, Oregon won the Pac-10 tournament, it’s not inconceivable the Huskies would find themselves out of luck, no matter what happens against Texas A&M on December 22nd.
And, now, for that silver lining. . .
There’s no question that the Huskies aren’t going to be handed anything now, despite their gaudy preseason reputation. Everything the Huskies achieve from here on out will be because they earned it.
There’s only so much fun you can have rooting for a prohibitive favorite all season long, isn’t there? Watching a season’s worth of games the Dawgs are expected to win puts fans in the position of being, at best, relieved, and otherwise thoroughly disappointed after every game.
The Pac-10 season is just three games away, and it’s clear now that every single game is going to matter. That certainly keeps things interesting.
For fans, it’s just a matter of coming to terms with a new definition for a successful season. Personally, I’m going to try to transport myself back to last year’s mindset, when an NCAA Tournament appearance was all I wanted. Anything else was icing.
I came into the season feeling like another Pac-10 title was, at worst, a 50/50% proposition. And, even then, I was only semi-excited about the idea of a second straight championship — a tasty appetizer on the way to the NCAA Tournament.
Now? I know it’ll be a dogfight just to get back to March Madness. The real question is, after being knocked down a peg, how big is the fight in these Dawgs?
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Thanks for coming! And, where’s your head at? Let’s hear it in our comments section: What did the Georgetown game do to your thoughts about this Husky team? Have you adjusted your expections? Let me hear you!!
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I agree with everything you said….but I want to add in an “optomistic wild card.”
Here is the thing, we have turned the ball over at EPIC levels. This is not a personnell thing, this is not a talent thing, this is a “calm down and belive in yourself” thing.
If we can just play well in one big game, I think the jitters that are causing these Huskies to throw the ball around the court like a hot potato, will cease. If John Brockman were here, he would huddle the guys up and tell them to take care of the ball…and they would listen.
Maybe it is that simple. If we turn the ball over 15 times (which is still not amazing) I think we would have been in that Georgetown game right until the end….with 15 turnovers, we would have beaten Texas Tech by 8 or 9.
I think it was interesting that the Huskies played this defining game against Georgetown in the John Wooden classic. One of his more famous quotes is “Be quick, but don’t hurry.”
This team is quick…and to date, they hurry everything they do. Whether its Venoy diving for a loose ball and then trying to turn it into a fast break, instead of controlling it, IT driving into three guys routinely on a break, MBA refusing to take his time, pump fake and dunk the basketball, etc…
Being quick doesn’t mean being careless. The strength of these Brockman-less Huskies is that we are the fastest team in college hoops. Control the turnovers and we are one of the more dangerous teams in the country, allow the speed to be our detriment, by giving opponents 20+ possessions without getting off a shot, and this will be a long season.
The Wild Card is Gaddy. He plays with poise. Let the kid play and lets see what happens. Make him the starter, get Venoy back to being the change of pace guy. Put Turner back on the bench and play Holiday at the 3. Holiday and Gaddy on the floor will insert poise and pace and good passing right from the start.
I STILL BELIEVE…lets go Dawgs.
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I’m still confident in this team. We lost two games away from home to teams with a combined record of 17-0. And in spite of playing absolutely poorly in both games, should have won one and battled back in the other. It would hav been nice to see a win, but the fact that the team didn’t roll over and get blown out in both games tells me that this team can still be very good. It’s just a matter of improving as the season goes along.
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Was at the game in LA this weekend……and I believe we just didn’t play our game.
25 turnovers…..that’s the stat we need to focus on because that’s what killed us. I just think it’s a product of trying to do too much. Plus, our patience escaped us.
MBA was trying to take on two premier big men (which, it’s clear, he simply doesn’t have the skill to do). We were driving to the post, but many times stopped and tried to make the inside pass (and it would get taken away almost every time). I love the quickness of our guards….but they were playing too quick on Saturday without control on offense (I call it Venoy-itis).
It was frustrating…..especially having to hear it from Georgetown fans ,who had nearly as many people representing as UW, but you wouldn’t know it from the noise they were making. It pretty much sounded like a pro-Georgetown crowd. Felt almost like a home game for them. It was very sad since we were still in Pac 10 country.
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Ps…..I still think the Pact 10 is ours to lose. We have the talent…..we just need the discipline. Romar will pull it out of our guys.
Go Dawgs.
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Does anyone think that we should perhaps bring MBA off the bench and replacing him with Tyrese Breshers in the starting line up. MBA simply does not have the skill to play the minutes he is receiving. He is still shying away from contact and tries to elude defenders on his shots instead of going strong. Allowing Tyrese to develop into the B-Rock of old could be worthwhile for us.
I also think that Trent deserves way more playing time than he is receiving. He plays with a lot more passion than the other players in his spot. He is simply a more athletic than any player on this team (aside from QPon). We need that energy more often, circa Bobby Jones 3-4 years ago.
Ideal starting line up:
Venoy, IT, Qpon, Breshers, Gant
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I agree with what montlake is saying. I think that there are several components why we lost and lost big in almost everyway possible.
1. I said that at the begining of the year MBA was going to be the key to this teams success. He is in great shape this year running the court but he doesnt look as strong as he was last year. He is playing softer offensively too. Instead of drawing contact he is fading away from it. Romar has to get him more involved offensively to be a legitimate third scorer and he has to play him 30 minutes a game not 22. I am going to say that if the huskies cant get MBA more involved offensively there season is really going to be on the rocks. Qpon is going to score and IT is going to get his shots we all know that, but they need a legit low post scoring presence and MBA is the only one capable of that right now.
2. Their defensive strategy of on ball pressure to force turnovers and help defense from backdoor cuts is obviously not working. It will work for some stretches of games or against lesser oponents like who the huskies have been playing but against quailty oponents like geogretown and texas tech they are getting exposed big time to the point that they are losing because of it. It would be one thing if they had twin towers of david robinson and tim duncan defending their backline where you can afford to gamble defensively on the perimeter but their backline is 6’9 MBA and 6’7 Qpon. Romar has to make the nessecary adjustments. How bout some old fashion straight up defense and keeping your man in front of you?
3. The huskies were man handled by georgetown. It was like men playing teenagers. I dont understand why romar played with a small lineup all night. Even the guards were tossing ours around the second half. I would like to see qpon at the 3 were he should be and getting gant and breshers some legitimate minutes at the 4. We can’t expect MBA to go up against 2 guys his size or bigger all night. He needs help. Romar has to see this.
4. Romar has to do a better job of reigning in IT and Overton. They simply play out of control sometimes and quite frankly selfish. I have seen overton especially going for a steal on a few occasions and his man beats him and drives to the hole and overton can only turn and watch while someone else has to help now on two players. Their defense breaks down. IT has to become a better passer. His going up and trying all these crazy acrobatic shots while some fall for him he cannot go up against 3 players a foot taller than him and expect good things to happen. Pretty soon everyone starts standing around watching IT play and stop moving and that is what happens when you play with a guy who is a black hole. The ball goes in but doesnt come out. If he can transform his game from only a scorer to a playmaker for his team where they get better playing with him than he will sky rocket but until then the huskies are going to not get any better either.
5. Gaddy is better than VO right now. He is more productive and he is better teammate than VO. Gaddy needs to be running this team with VO off the bench where he belongs. To many turnovers, selfishness, and fouls. Gaddy will have some growing pains but give him the confidence.
6. Better coaching. I love Romar but he needs to put his foot down on these guys and get a better handle on them. They look to undisciplined. Too selfish. He has to make the adjustments. I feel like Romar knows his way of playing ball and that is small ball perimeter oriented offense and pressure defense with help on back door cuts. I have yet to see the 5 best players play on the court at the same time. My starting 5 would be
C MBA ( Huskies have to get him more involved offensively to have any shot at taking this team to the next level, give him 30 minutes a game)
PF Breshers (He needs to get in better shape and cut down his fouls but give him 20 minutes a game and see what he can do)
SF QPON (One of the best players in the nation doing everything to help huskies win has really took his game to another level)
SG IT (Has to make better decisions with the ball and be a better playmaker not just gunner, also would like to see him get better defensively, too many turnovers and bad shots)
PG Gaddy (Give him 25 minutes a game and let him run the offense, he will at least take care of the ball, needs to improve defensively and get stronger but he will get better)
Bench
Overton ( Until he can play better without turning over the ball, taking bad shots, making bad fouls, and play better defence I would reduce his role. He is hurting the team as much as he helps it right now. 18 minutes a game)
Gant ( Offensively he isnt going to do alot but he is at least a presence defensively and will get some rebounds and can give some rest to MBA, 15 minutes a game)
Holiday (He has gotten alot stronger and seems to be playing better this year. 15 minutes a game)
Turner (Until he can be more consistent with his shooting he has to be a bench player. He is not this teams third scoring option and if romar keeps trying to figure this out it will be a long year for this team. 15 minutes a game)That leaves Trent and Suggs on the bench and I really like Trent and suggs is playing better but the team needs more consistency with playing time and cannot have a 11 man rotation. What do you think Montlake?
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In the debate between playing Scott Suggs, Elston Turner, and Justin Holiday, I like Scott Suggs the best. He is more sound with the ball, with better ball handling skills, and doesn’t seem to panic and try to force things as much as Justin and Elston. Also, he seems to be the most consistent one making 3-pointers when they are wide open, already having knocked down a couple important shots. What impressed me most during his 19 minutes in the Georgetown game was his ability to dribble out of trouble around the perimeter to look for open guys, instead of getting stuck on his pivot foot. Although Elston is also a good ball handler, I feel that when he puts the ball on the floor he is looking to score instead of passing.
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Lots of excellent comments…like montlake, I made the conscious decision Saturday afternoon that my expectations for the remainder of the season are adjusted.
however, though there are some obvious issues concerns I would be curious how things would look if Huskies simply had 1/2 the amount of turnovers in their last two losses.
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I like that starting lineup posted by Matt Davis.
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i cant believe Gant’s Moustache can actually post comments. That’s so crazy.
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Good thing the pac ten is having a really down year this year. I thought it wouldn’t be that bad, but man, our league isn’t that good.
I still believe too, and feel like Romar is a good enough coach to turn it around come pac 10 time. I expect to go to the dance -
Sooo, Montlake…your “silver lining” is “its more FUN to be mediocre and be an underdog than be good and be the favorites”(!?!) Sorry, doesn’t do it for me. In fact the “silver lining” was the most pathetic and depressing part of the post. I have some suggestions for a better “silver lining”:
This team should get much better, because several of it’s biggest flaws are likely to take care of themselves as the season progresses. First, once Romar gets it together and commits to Gaddy as a starting point guard, the TO’s will go way down and the assists will go way up. Also, although this team will never be a great outside shooting team, there will be far more open looks once Gaddy gets comfortable w/ the offense, and this will undoubtedly lead to a higher shooting % overall and from outside the arc.
Second, Breshers is a work in progress, and he has shown glimpses of being that post scorer that this team desparately needs. But it’s gonna take time w/ Tyrese due to his recovery from injury, conditioning issues, and obviously, his lack of experience. Still by the end of the year, Breshers and MBA could provide us w/ a pretty solid scoring presence down low, especially against the the weak interior players in the Pac10.
Third, the defensive rotation will get faster and better over the course of the season. It always does, and w/ this team’s blazing speed and quicks, there’s no way we will be giving up dunks and layups off of backdoor cuts by the middle of the conference season. Romar’s teams always improve dramatically in this regard from the beginning to the end of the year. IMO this is the primary reason that all of Romar’s UW teams have had better (or at least equal) records in the “back 9″ of the pacx schedule than in the first half.
Fourth, as I alluded to, Romar’s Washington teams have a history of getting better from beginning to end of season. Especially very young groups like this one.
I am not lowering my expectations. I’m just expecting it to take a while to get where we need to be.
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