USC is coming off a tipsy turvy year. USC was part of the 8 teams who had to play their way into the NCAA tournament where they lost to the miracle VCU team who shocked college basketball like Butler last season. USC finished 19-15 overall and 10-8 in conference, one game back from UW.

Unfortunately for USC, the Trojans look to be taking a huge step backwards after graduating 4 seniors and junior, Nikola Vucevic. Alex Stephenson and Nikola Vucevic combined for 27 points and 20 rebounds a game in what was one of the best frontcourt duos in the nation. Stephenson was .2 points and .8 rebounds from averaging a double-double along with Vucevic.

After losing so much size, experience, and talent the Trojans will have a lot of work to do, especially in the frontcourt. Their backcourt was looking fairly solid until Jio Fontan, last season’s second leading scorer, blew out his knee during their Brazilian tour. He had season ending surgery and will not return until 2012-2013.

The Trojans will likely be without Curtis Washington this season as he suffered a torn labrum (shoulder injury). The Trojans’ new 7 foot center, Dwayne Dedmon, suffered a broken hand in mid October that has kept his practice limited for the past few weeks (common recovery time is 2-3 weeks for the injury he suffered, so he should be back to full mobility in his hand quite soon).

As you can see its been a rough off season for USC, so much so that during the Pac-12 media day Trojan coach, Kevin O’Neil, made this statement: “If Mo gets hurt we can’t really play the game. … We’d have to start a freshman point guard and that would be a disaster. … I need him (Jones) to do more all the time. … His impact on our team is unbelievable. If he’s in trouble or gets hurt, don’t come to our games because it will be ugly.”

Key Losses:

• Alex Stephenson 6-10 250lb - A big man with a big game. The second best rebounder in the conference behind teammate Nikola Vucevic, Stephenson was a big, talented body who helped USC battle their way to the NCAA. Stephenson had a strong inside game, but his shooting from range struggled a bit in comparison to his counterpart.
• Nikola Vucevic 6-10 240lb - A top prospect in the Pac-10, Vucevic was drafted with the 16th overall pick in the NBA draft. He averaged 17 points and over 10 boards per game. Dominating is the only way to describe him. He could push his weight around inside and drop the long ball every now and then. USC will be missing him greatly.
• Jio Fontan 6-0 170lb - Fontan has a terrific junior season. Second in scoring at 11 ppg and first on the team with 4 assists per game, Fontan was the guard they needed after losing a lot of backcourt talent the previous seasons. He was going to be the saving grace for the Trojan until his knee injury. He’ll be back next season.

Incoming Freshmen:

• Alexis Moore 6-2 180lb - Moore adds some much needed depth at the PG position. He is a solid passer who has been developing his shooting game with relative success. His biggest problems lie in his form when passing and a tendency to take too many shots. Moore will have to quickly learn how to play at the collegiate level because Maurice Jones is going to need a hand.
• Byron Wesley 6-5 210lb - Wesley will be a terrific 2/3 for the Trojans if he can add a 3 point shot to his arsenal. He has a solid mid-range game that is tough to stop with his strength and height. He strikes me as a less talented, but stronger Terrence Ross. Regardless, the backcourt is USC’s weak point Wesley could find himself getting immediate play time.Haven’t heard or seen much about his defensive skills so I can’t comment on what type of impact he could have there, but at 210lbs he can bang with the best of them on the outside.

USC also added two JC transfers in 7-1 260lb,  James Blasczyk, and 6-3 180lb, Greg Allen. Both players could bring in much needed experience to an underdeveloped team.

Returning Players:

• Maurice Jones 5-7 155lb
• Tyler Sugiyama 5-10 150lb
• Daniel Munoz 5-10 175lb
• Eric Strangis 6-4 190lb
• Daniel Dragovic 6-5 195lb
• Aaron Fuller 6-6 235lb
• Garrett Jackson 6-6 225lb
• Evan Smith 6-7 225lb
• Curtis Washington 6-10 245lb

Not a whole lot of big name talent coming back for USC. Like O’Neill said, if Maurice gets hurt then the Trojans are in for a world of hurt. The talent coming in doesn’t come close to replacing the talent going out and honestly, the talent remaining is far from spectacular with all the injuries they have sustained. That being said, USC should not be the worst team in conference. They have enough size and “veteran” players win against teams like Utah and ASU, maybe even WSU.

Predicted Starting Line-Up:

G – Maurice Jones 5-7 155lb
G – Alexis Moore 6-2 180lb
G – Byron Wesley 6-5 210
F – Aaron Fuller 6-6 235 lb
F – Dewayne Dedmon 7-0 255lb

Look at that line-up. Recognize anyone from last season? Jones is the only player who had an impact last season for USC at nearly 10 points and over 3 assists per game. Jackson played in all but one game for USC, though he only averaged 3 points.

What To Expect:

USC is going to have to do all it can to keep its guards healthy as well as find a way to get the frontcourt developing. Not a lot of talent to be seen here and they’ll be scrapping for every win they can get. USC has a tough match-up as their last non-conference game against Kansas. They also face Georgia (who UW beat in the NCAA last season) and New Mexico (who UW beat two season ago in the NCAA). USC will have a losing record and finish in the bottom four of the conference. I’d be surprised if they finished higher than 8th. Utah will keep USC out of the basement, but not far from it. Keep your heads up Trojan fans. There is always football to look forward to.

AP Photo/Elaine Thompson

Final Score: UW-60 USC-62

A terrible way to end the season as well as senior night. Justin Holiday went scoreless the entire game, while Venoy Overton did everything in his power to will this team to a victory.

Rebounding and free throws killed us tonight. USC out rebounded UW 36-25. UW missed 6 free throws including a few huge ones down the stretch when the Dawgs were trying to fight back from 12 down.

UW handled the ball well, only turning the ball over 7 times. They dished out 8 assists on 21 makes. UW also had 6 blocks and steals on top of 11 forced turnovers. Overton was a Venoying machine out there and was critical down the stretch. At one point Romar pulled Overton out and Holiday told Romar “We need him.” Romar then chewed him out. I’m on Holiday’s side. Overton was the reason we came back. He made 4-6 from the field and 7-9 from the line.

Isaiah Thomas and Matthew Bryan-Amaning continued to struggle with their shooting. MBA was 5-11 and I.T. was 5-13. Holiday was 0-6, 0-3 from range. Our shooting woes were another reason we lost this game. 39% shooting on the night and 2-16 from outside is not going to win a game when compounded with the free throw and rebounding issues. Scott Suggs shot well on the other hand. 6-8, 2-3 behind the arc. C.J. Wilcox collapsed again. 1-7 from the field, 0-5 from range. Ugly.

Terrence Ross did not play tonight. Not sure the reason yet. This is extremely puzzling especially when one considers he was the reason we beat USC on the road at the onset of the Pac-10 season. Aziz played a team low 12 minutes and was hardly used in the second half. Aziz had 0 shots attempted, 0 rebounds, 1 steal, and 2 fouls. Useless tonight. He was just plain outclassed by the extremely strong duo of Alex Stephenson and Nikola Vucevic who combined for 24 boards and 30 points.

The crowd was dead tonight. I don’t know what has been going on, but the general fan base has been extremely apathetic and it kills me that it continued into Senior Night. Yes, I know the Huskies got down early, but being quiet is only supporting the opposing team.

What Needed Improvement

Rebounding

MBA led the Huskies with 6 boards. 6. Not solid at all. Vucevic and Stephenson work MBA in the post all night. Holiday and Overton each added 5. Pretty hard to win a game when you give up a ton of offensive boards and lose too many of your own.

Free Throw Shooting

You cannot afford to miss free throws. Ever. Especially down the stretch in AND1 situations. I.T. missed a front end of a 1 and 1 as well as an AND1. I believe Overton also missed an AND1 shot.

Shooting

I don’t know what to say about this. We have lost that oh so sweet touch that we were renowned for in the beginning of the year. Sure the non-conference opponents were not the most stellar of teams but this team has scored over 100 points 6 or 7 times this season and 98 on another occasion. This is a team that can shoot and we aren’t doing it well any more. Even if your defense is doing everything it can, you will not win if you aren’t scoring.

What Was Good

Defense

UW held USC to 41% shooting and 20% from range. The blocks, steals, and turnovers forced were solid. Donte Smith was held to 1-9 shooting. UW also forced USC into 21 fouls, 18 by the starters with 3 of them picking up 4 a piece.

Suggs and Overton

Couldn’t ask two players to do much more. When one of your seniors doesn’t hit a shot and the other is missing gimmes along with being dominated by their assignment its hard to win. This was a night I thought Holiday was blow up and drop 20 again. Not even close. Overton wanted to win and worked his ass off trying to do it. Suggs shot well and defended his man pretty well.

Player by Player Reviews

Justin Holiday

Bleh. Not how you want a senior to end his career at home and in the regular season. I feel bad for the kid. Glad he didn’t cry coming out with his family, I would have lost it. He was out sized trying to guard Vucevic and its hard to expect him to really challenge a guy that much bigger than him. If Aziz had been successful this may not have been a problem as Vucevic would not have been able to guard Holiday without giving up size somewhere else. He rebounded well enough. 5 boards is pretty good for a wing. Too bad he didn’t have help from the post players. Holiday got beat up this game. He got jabbed in the eye, twisted his ankle, and like a champ, played through it all to the best of his abilities.

Grade: C

Matthew Bryan-Amaning

Got worked tonight. Stephenson is a strong player and MBA always struggles against guys who are as athletic as he is. He took some longer range shots that baffled me, shots he hadn’t attempted all year. Don’t know who he was trying to show off for, but I wasn’t impressed. I’d rather have seen him make some post moves and get to the rim. He struggled on the glass and went 1-3 from the line. He did have 2 steals and 3 blocks to offset 2 turnovers.

Grade: C

Venoy Overton

My personal MVP for the night. He worked his ass off and the Venoyance meter read LEVEL 5 the entire second half as he battled and battled, trying to spark some offense into the Huskies on both ends of the court. Even when USC dropped 4 back on free throws to defend the hoop Overton was able to get straight to the rim and quickly. It was impressive. He forced USC into a 5 second call and was continually tapping the ball away from guards, forcing them to lose their handle at least for a moment or two. He finished with 15 points, 1 behind Thomas who led the team. Venoy led the team in assists with 4 of UW’s 8.

Grade: A

Brendan Sherrer

Did not play.

Grade: N/A

Darnell Gant

Was not terribly successful tonight. Only 2 rebounds and 0 points on 0-2 shooting. He only played 15 minutes. Did not remember much of his defensive efforts so I can’t really comment on how he performed on that side of the ball. The lack of blocks or steals tell me he was likely not to successful.

Grade: D

Isaiah Thomas

He may have led the team in points, but only 3 assists and 38% shooting is just not going to cut it. 6-8 from the free throw line official. In my mind, however, he is 6-9. Missing the front end of a 1 and 1 should always count as two misses. You can’t make what you don’t attempt. He missed a huge AND1 free throw in the final minutes that would have cut the lead to 3 rather than 4.

Grade: B

Scott Suggs

A solid night from the junior. His level of play has really elevated this season. He finished with 14 points and was the only successful outside shooter with the only 2 makes UW had behind the arc on the night. Both his rebounds were offensive and he added in a block to finish off his stat line. No assists, but no turnovers as well. As with Gant I don’t remember any outstanding defensive efforts by Suggs, but I also don’t remember any big lapses so it could not have been that bad.

Grade: B+

Aziz N’Diaye

He may as well have stayed on the bench the whole game. His stat line is empty minus a steal and 2 fouls. Not sure when the big man is going to turn a corner in his career and start putting up consistent numbers. With MBA leaving after this season and all the big name recruits falling through for the Huskies there isn’t a whole lot of talent in the post for the Dawgs.

Grade: F

Antoine Hosley

Did not play.

Grade: N/A

Terrence Ross

Did not play. He did not look injured so to me this screams team rule violation. No reason not to put him in when Suggs is the only one having success outside. Listening to Romar’s interview it sounds as though Ross did not play because “there weren’t enough minutes.” Eff that. C.J. wasn’t hitting, put Ross in and let him try his hand. It wasn’t as though Romar was trying to keep size in the game as I remember moments where MBA was the lone post player on the court. So between C.J.’s minutes and Gant’s minutes I find it hard to believe Romar couldn’t find a few to give Ross. As I said before, Ross was a monster against USC earlier this year so why would you not try him again.

Grade: N/A

C.J. Wilcox

As I said with my preview I wasn’t expecting a great performance from Wilcox tonight, but this was just pathetic. 4 points on 1-7 shooting. We needed his range and it was nowhere to be seen. His free throw shooting was brilliant though. Love his free throws.

Grade: D

Final Thoughts

Not how you want to end the regular season. UW finished 3rd in a year where they could have finished 18-0 and in first place. UW, in my mind, needs to win at least 1 game in the Pac-10 tournament. They face WSU in the first round. WSU will likely have Klay Thompson back, despite his father’s wishes, as well as Reggie Moore who sat out the UCLA game today with a sprained ankle. UW has a lot of work to do and I don’t know what to expect from them any more. I really am lost as to how this team can struggle so much with their shot. This reminds me of our stretch last year on the road where we couldn’t buy a win. Got to hope someone steps up and gets this team going again. I don’t want the NIT. I want the NCAA and a run to the Final Four.

USC enters this game with an 17-13 record and are 9-8 in Pac-10 play, most recently having lost to WSU 85-77. Nikola Vucevic had 22 points and 11 rebounds.Maurice Jones added 16 points and Jio Fontan dished out a very nice 7 assists with only 1 turnover.

USC is currently averaging 67.1 points per game and 33.9 rebounds per game. They also bring in 12.1 assists per game and 11 turnovers per game, including 2.2 per game by starting point guard Maurice Jones and 2.3 per game by guard Jio Fontan.

Nikola Vucevic is by far the most dangerous player in the USC line up, averaging a double double with 17.6 ppg and 10.3 rpg. He is a beast in the post and will be a tough challenge for our bigs to contend with. Add in Alex Stephenson who is also near a double double average with 9.9 ppg and 8.8 rpg and you have yourself a very dangerous duo. MBA will likely guard Vucevic as Vucevic has a nice outside shot. This will allow Aziz to stay close to home in the middle of the key to get rebounds and play tough defense. The one bonus is the USC frontcourt is not deep. After Vucevic and Stephenson, USC does not have any contributing forwards. Garrett Jackson averages 3.7 ppg and 1.8 rpg. Thankfully we have Darnell Gant who is averaging 5.2 ppg and 3.4 rpg, though he can score much more than 6 on any given night.

Another tough assignment is Jio Fontan. Isaiah will likely be given the responsibility of handling Fontan. Fontan has made 17 of his 48 three point attempts. Fontan is averaging a team high 4 assists, but is a measly 61% from the free throw line.

Starting Line Ups:

USC

Maurice Jones 5-7 155lb G
Jio Fontan 6-0 175lb G
Marcus Simmons 6-6 220lb G
Nikola Vucevic 6-10 240lb F
Alex Stephenson 6-10 250lb F

UW

Isaiah Thomas 5-9 185lb G
Venoy Overton 6-0 185lb G
Justin Holiday 6-6 185lb F
Matthew Bryan-Amaning 6-9 240lb F
Aziz N’Diaye 7-0 260lb C

Keys to the Game:

Rebounding - This is the biggest issue the Huskies will have to deal with. USC does not rebound by committee, rather USC rebounds via Vucevic and Stephenson who account for half of USC’s rebounds. MBA and Aziz will have their work cut out for them. Aziz needs to show he can be dominate once more on the glass against tough foes. Now that he is able to play 20+ minutes a game, his numbers are improving and his impact is becoming greater. If MBA and Aziz can combine for 15 or 16 boards while limiting the USC duo to 12 or 14 we should consider their play a success. Vucevic and Stephenson will get boards no doubt, how many depends on the sort of effort MBA and Aziz put out. Our other players need to limit their opponents from getting loose balls as well, especially off long range misses. The less second chance points USC gets the better off we shall be.

Pressure Defense - Though USC is only averaging 11 turnovers a game, their three main guards are averaging a combined 7.2 turnovers a game, the lowest is Bryce Jones at 1.7  per game. Vucevic is also averaging 1.6 turnovers while Stephenson is averaging 1.5 per games. Last season, USC was highly susceptible to 3/4 and full court pressure defense and so far it appears it is true once more. If UW want to control this game they need to get the tempo going in their favor and that means getting the ball out in transition. USC usually runs a good half court offense so forcing them to step up the tempo and play faster than usual should create more turnovers and opportunities for the Huskies to score. This will also limit 3 point opportunities for Fontan and Bryce Jones, both of whom can shoot the long ball with some proficiency. The soft on ball, full court pressure UW applied against UCLA was highly successful and kept the game competitive when our shots weren’t falling.

Shooting - If we can get our perimeter shots to drop, our post players will have an easier day with a little less pressure on their backs. If we can’t get the ball to drop from range, we will struggle mightily. USC’s frontcourt is tough and scoring on them will prove to be tough as well. If we can get scoring, USC won’t stand a chance. Look for C.J. Wilcox to have another good night, but I highly doubt he is going to drop 24 again. USC will be looking to shut him down.

Passing - Game in and game out, this is a very deciding factor. When we play lazy and don’t pass well we tend to lose. We only had 13 assists against UCLA, but also only had 22 makes so the percentage is nice and the number is actually better than it looks. UW needs to continue to work in transition, moving the ball around quickly. On the road against USC, UW had 0 transition points. USC likes to fall back and cram the middle, its why they rebound so poorly.

Final Thoughts:

It’s senior night. If the Big Three have half the night Quincy Pondexter did on his senior night, USC won’t stand a chance. Venoy Overton will start the game. No doubt in my mind. C.J. will still see plenty of minutes. Minus the atrocious play against WSU, UW is undefeated at home with all but the UCLA game being a 10 point win. No way the seniors let this game fall. No way in hell. Big players play big on big nights. Time for the Seniors to do their job and go out with a bang.

Final Score Prediction:

UW-86 USC-70

The Least You Should Know:

This one looked to be headed for a blowout when USC built a 16-point lead with 9:05 remaining in the game, but the Huskies went into a full-court press and fought back, getting as close as a single point before falling in the game’s final moments after two clutch shots by USC guard Mike Gerrity.

Dwight Lewis owned the Huskies in the first half, scoring 16 of his 22 in the opening 20 minutes.

Other than Quincy Pondexter (18 points, seven rebounds), Matthew Bryan-Amaning was the Huskies’ best player tonight, finishing with 14 points and seven rebounds.

Analysis and observations:

Ugh. Tough, tough loss for the Dawgs who fall back to the middle of the Pac-10. There’s little doubt now that the Huskies must win the Pac-10 Tournament in order to make the NCAA Tournament.

After seeing the out-of-town scores, it turns out that this was an even more costly loss for the Huskies because of what they could’ve gained by winning. With Cal losing at Oregon State, the Huskies would’ve closed within a game of first place with a victory tonight.

The full-court press was the key decision Coach Romar made that helped the Huskies avoid a blowout loss. I can’t help but wonder whether the Huskies should’ve been playing more full-court pressure all season. By this point, the tactic would’ve been old hat, as opposed to something the Dawgs have only practiced on rare game-time occasions.

It felt like every time the Trojans needed a basket they were able to grab offensive rebounds and create two- and three-shot possessions, eventually getting the bucket they needed. The Dawgs were simply overmatched in the paint.

It’s easy to second-guess after a heartbreaking loss. But in a game the Huskies were trailing for the entire second half, why didn’t the coaches ensure we’d fouled USC into the bonus before the game’s final moments? The Dawgs wasted at least 2-3 seconds chasing USC on two intentional non-shooting fouls. In a game this close, I would’ve loved to have that time back.

Another very good game from Matthew Bryan-Amaning, who finished with 14 points, seven rebounds, and looks more confident and aggressive. Even if time is running out on the Dawgs’ 2009/2010 season, MBA’s play is a great sign for 2010/2011.

Some uncharacteristic play from a few Huskies tonight, both good and bad. Good: Abdul Gaddy (six points, 3-9 shooting) looked more aggressive offensively. Nice to see him play with confidence late in an up-and-down freshman year. Bad: A career-high five turnover night for Justin Holiday.

If there’s a bright side, or an understandable side, to tonight’s loss, it’s that the Trojans may be the most dangerous team in the conference. Take your Cal and your ASU, but if USC could go to a post-season tournament, my money would be on them over any of this year’s other Pac-10 squads.

Isaiah Thomas spent crunchtime planted on the bench, and finished with only five points. With Venoy Overton’s on-ball skills necessary to guard point guard Mike Gerrity, there simply wasn’t a place for I.T. and, result aside, the Husky comeback says to me that Romar was right to have Elston Turner in there during that key stretch.

Saturday’s game against UCLA is the last home game of the year, and Quincy Pondexter’s last game ever at Hec Ed. Unless…

The Huskies, now firmly outside the NCAA bubble, could wind up in the CBI Tournament, which might mean one or more games at Hec Ed. That’s obviously not the outcome anyone wants from this season, but it happened two years ago when the Huskies lost to Valpo at Hec Ed in the first-ever CBI. Just something to keep in mind during the season’s last three weeks.

Thanks for coming!

I really thought the momentum with the Huskies would go the other way after the near-win at UCLA. (Maybe the fact that I was heartened by a “near-win” on the road says all that can be said about how this season’s gone so far.)

Last night, the Huskies were bad and the Trojans were good. The result was the Huskies’ worst loss in about three years. Here’s some thoughts on the loss:

Even at their best this year, it’s hard to imagine the Huskies beat this USC team when it’s going on all cylinders. While the Huskies have some very talented individuals, somehow, with all of the program’s issues, Kevin O’Neill has put together a balanced team of players who fit together beautifully.

When Abdul Gaddy got off to the good start, scoring the Huskies’ first four points, why take him out less than five minutes into the game?

Scott Suggs was on the floor 15 minutes and took two shots. If he’s gonna play, he’s gotta shoot.

I’m trying to look at our team objectively for a minute, and really we can’t be too surprised that they’re struggling, right? Here’s some of the things the team isn’t doing well right now: defending the interior, defending the three-pointer, shooting from the outside, scoring on the inside, winning on the road. That’s not good, right?

Going to the zone was a neat idea. But, the Huskies looked like they knew they were compromising out there. Almost like Coach calling for the change in defense was an admission that they were overmatched tonight (which they, of course, were).

I don’t know if he’s looking for style points or what, but Tyreese Breshers has a nasty habit of pulling down rebounds with one hand. Tonight he got burned for it by losing a ball out of bounds.

Again, a 9-4 run by the Trojans to start the second half. Whatever’s happening in the locker room at halftime, the coaching staff needs to do, or say, the opposite.

If the game could be summarized in one play, it was with about 11 minutes left, the Huskies down 13. The Dawgs put together their best defensive stand of the game, and with the shot clock almost at zero, forced Mike Gerrity into a crazy 25-footer. It bounced wildly off the rim. . . and right into the hands of Nikola Vucevic, reseting the shot clock. Ugh.

Speaking of Gerrity, he had seven assists. The Huskies had a grand total of five.

Tough night for Quincy, and a bad night for his draft prospects, I think. Marcus Johnson may not quite be an NBA-level talent, but he’s an NBA-level athlete, and Quincy couldn’t do anything against him at all.

I love Coach Romar, and hope he’s the Husky coach forever. But we’re clearly not getting consistent performances this season, or finding a way to win with what we have.

I still don’t think the season is lost. Not in this Pac-10. Just when you thought Arizona State was in pole position to pull away in the Pac-10, they lose by 19 at home to the Wildcats last night. But. . .

Each loss makes it more and more likely that the Huskies will need to peak during the Pac-10 Tournament, and win it, to make an appearance in the NCAA Tournament this season.

For most of the season, the coverage of the team’s losses has generally criticized the poor effort by this talented team. Tonight, I’m wondering if the problem has actually been the talent and not the effort.

Thanks for coming!

Here’s the link to Percy Allen’s recap of the worst Husky loss in about three years.

Tough night to be a Dawg fan.

Thanks for coming!

The Dawgs are picked 13th in the nation in today’s preseason USA Today/ESPN Coaches’ Poll, just behind Cal (12th). No other Pac-10 school made the top 25, but UCLA earned the 29th-most votes, just missing out.

USC earned multiple votes at well. Go figure.