Season Preview

Ryan Petitt / UDubSports.com

The Huskies start their 11-game non-conference schedule this Friday night. What kind of record can fans expect from the team during this first part of the season? And, what should we be happy with?

Last season: Starting the 2008/09 season with only modest expectations, the Huskies went 9-3 in their non-conference slate (10-3 if you count the midseason game vs. Seattle U.), before going 14-4 to win the Pac-10 championship. Two of those non-conference losses were to Kansas and Florida, teams (arguably) stronger than any on this year’s non-conference schedule.

This season: The Huskies non-conference schedule this year isn’t particularly rigorous. In order, the Dawgs have Wright State, Belmont, Portland State, San Jose State, Montana, Texas Tech, Cal State Northridge, Georgetown, Portland, Texas A&M, and San Francisco. (We also have Seattle U. in late January in the midst of the Pac-10 season.)

The two thorniest looking games: At this point, the two Husky opponents generally considered the toughest are Georgetown (December 12 in Anaheim) and Texas A&M (December 22 at home).

Georgetown is currently ranked #21 in the ESPN/USA Today poll, and has one of the best big men in the country, Greg Monroe. Texas A&M, though unranked, is expected to compete for a solid finish in the Big 12, and has made the NCAA Tournament the past four seasons.

 Loading ...

We’re not playing world-beaters, but we aren’t playing losers either: Seven of our eleven opponents finished in the top half of their conference last season (Wright State, Belmont, Portland State, Portland, Montana, CS Northridge, and Texas A&M), and two that didn’t are Georgetown and Big 12 opponent Texas Tech (December 3 in Lubbock, TX).

Three games that could be tougher on the court than on paper: There’s no telling when the Huskies might come out flat on a given day and leave themselves open for an upset, or when the Dawgs’ opponent will come out at and play out of its mind, but these are three I’m uneasy about:

Portland State (November 15 at home) came from 16 points back in the final six minutes, and almost shocked the Huskies at home last season in a game the Dawgs salvaged by holding on 84-83.

Cal State Northridge (Dec. 6 at home) returns several key players from their squad that won the Big West conference last year and led Memphis with eight minutes to go in their first round NCAA Tournament game before falling by 11.

Portland (Dec. 19 at home) beat the Dawgs last season in the first game of the season. They know they can play with us and will be anxious to make it two in a row.

What kind of record can fans expect after the first 11 games?: It’s hard not to look at these 11 games, 10 against teams regarded as inferior to the Huskies, and fully anticipate being 11-0 or 10-1 at the end of this stretch.

While that’s possible, it’s more likely, I think, that the Huskies will lose three or four of these 11 games. With such a young team, it’s hard to imagine that they’ll beat Georgetown and win at Texas Tech and beat Texas A&M at home and not drop even one of these other games.

We’re a young team with a huge ceiling, but if I were betting, I’d say 8-3 is what I expect. (And, for what it’s worth, if I’m off by a game, I think 7-4 is much more likely than 9-2.)

So, how many non-conference wins = success?: Entering the season ranked thirteenth in the nation means the Huskies will be defending that mark of distinction as long as they can hold onto it. They’ll be a target for their opponents every time out, since for many of these teams, the Dawgs will be the best they’ll play against all season.

That said, it’s entirely possible that these Huskies could lose three or four of these non-conference games without it signaling that the season is doomed at all. If the Huskies are sitting at, say, 8-3 when they host Oregon State on December 31st, they’ll likely still be ranked, or be close to it, and have proved that they’re a winning team, while also seeing that they’re not invincible. For my money, I’d say that would count as a successful start to the 2009/10 season.

It’s time for part I of the Montlake Madness 2009/10 Pac-10 Season Preview. Below are my picks for all of the postseason awards the conference will give out, and some explanation for why I’ve chosen the players I have.

These guys won’t start battling it out with each other until the Pac-10 season begins on December 31st. But, with the season less than two weeks away, it’s time to look at the players and teams that will try to stop the Huskies from repeating as Pac-10 champions this season.

What do you think? Let me know your picks in the comments section or by email: MontlakeMadness@gmail.com.

Why?: Oregon center Michael Dunigan was excellent last season, given the fact that he was a freshman, but only when he could stay on the court. If he can stay away from foul trouble and improve his conditioning, he (not Roeland Schaftenaar) should be the conference’s best true big man.

Why not?: Arizona State’s Derek Glasser just doesn’t have the ceiling to be significantly better than he was last year, which was “good,” but not all-conference. The scoring numbers will go up because someone besides sharpshooter Kuksiks has to put up some points, but it’ll be a result of taking more shots, not playing at a higher level.

Why?: Klay Thompson, with his sweet stroke and super pedigree, is a candidate to lead the league in scoring this season now that Wazzu will run Ken Bone’s less-deliberate offense.

Why not?: Cal forward Theo Robertson will undoubtedly be good again this season. Likely, very good. But, if you’re Mike Montgomery, who also has Jerome Randle and Patrick Christopher to score from the wing, you’re probably looking at your disappointing exit from last year’s NCAA Tournament and considering how to broaden your attack. My sense is that Robertson’s numbers suffer most as Cal tries to feed its thin frontcourt more regularly on its way to a solid finish in the Pac-10.

Why?: New WSU point guard Thames will likely be the starter soon, if not right away. While he won’t make the impact Abdul Gaddy should at UW, Thames is another big point (6’3″) who can score, but really understands the idea of being a distributor. Look for Thames and Gaddy to have some epic battles over the next two seasons.

Why not?: Someone from UCLA’s talented group of frosh will make a name for himself, but who? Tyler Honeycutt the most polished of the group is recovering from a back fracture? 6’8″ Mike Moser, who’s too thin for the post, but not the shooter he needs to be to play the wing? Or, hard-nosed Reeves Nelson who needs polish, but reminds some people of Jon Brockman? Too hard to tell at this point which of these guys, or the other freshman on the Bruin roster, will thrive.

Why?: It’s time for some recognition for Justin Holiday. Strangely, I think it’ll take Justin putting a few more points (and rebounds) into the box score for the guys covering the Pac-10 to appreciate his effort, hustle and effectiveness on the defensive side of the ball.

Why not?: It was hard not also putting Quincy Pondexter into this group, as I think he’ll likely deserve the accolade as well, just not quite as much as the other five.

Coach of the Year – Ernie Kent, Oregon: All it’s going to take from Kent’s plucky Ducks is a finish in the top half of the conference to shock the world (well, the Pac-10, at least). You’ll see where I pick the Ducks in part II of this preview, but I’m guessing that Kent brings this unheralded mix of weathered veterans and dynamic youngsters back to the NCAA Tournament.

Most Improved – Malcolm Lee, UCLA: Lee, who averaged just three points per game last season in a crowded UCLA backcourt (Darren Collison, Jrue Holiday, Josh Shipp), is the trendy pick to score big in Westwood this season. He should have no such trouble carving out playing time as the two-guard job is his. It’s likely that the high expectations this über-athlete came in with (as a top-50 recruit and early 2011 lottery prediction) will bear fruit this year.

Defensive Player of the Year – Alex Stepheson, USC: The word on UNC transfer Stepheson is that he’s an absolute beast in the paint on both ends. You’ll see that we also picked him for All Pac-10 First Team, (I also picked him for a starting spot on my college hoops fantasy team) and he’s the reason I think people may be slightly underrating USC this season.)

Freshman of the Year – Abdul Gaddy, UW: The Gaddy era at starts now at UW, and while it may be only two seasons long, he has a chance to be one of the best point guards in the country during that time. While replacing Jon Brockman will be impossible, a very strong freshman season by Gaddy, who will have the ball in his hands on most offensive possessions, is the only way for the team not to miss a beat.

Player of the Year – Quincy Pondexter, UW: One recent Pac-10 preview picked Q-Pon as the most underrated player in the league. I agree with that wholeheartedly, and so will the league after Pondexter has a monster season. A 20/10 (points/rebounds) season isn’t out of reach, which, coupled with UW finishing near the top of the conference, should mean Quincy leaves school with some nice hardware.

And a prediction…

The Pac-10 won’t send nine players to the NBA Draft again this season, but it could be closer than a lot of people think. NBADraft.net predicts three Pac-10 players will be drafted (Quincy Pondexter, Patrick Christopher, Dwight Lewis) — all in the second round. But, it’s not out of the question that Nic Wise could play his way in as well. And, if some of the league’s underclassmen, like Michael Dunigan, Malcolm Lee, Klay Thompson, or (gasp!) Isaiah Thomas leave early, the league might not be quite so poorly represented come June.

Thanks for coming! Part II coming up soon!