by: John Chase

This is how UCLA’s year has gone.

After looking like the powerhouse of the Pac-12, UCLA suffered some humiliating losses in the early non-con and have had to drag their way out of the basement, back into some semblance of a competitive team. The Bruins have stumbled to a 12-9 (5-4 in conference) record, leaving them tied for 5th place alongside Stanford and Arizona. Their record includes two very ugly home losses to Loyola Marymount 69-58 and a humongous 20 point loss 86-66 to Middle Tennessee.

ESPN penned a nice article a while back about the Wear twins and how they are holding UCLA back. The article argues that the Wear twins are the same player, so playing both on the court at the same time is wasteful and severely reduces game planning ability.

UCLA has yet to tally a quality win, much like the rest of the Pac-12, the big difference has been bad losses to non-tournament teams. Their team has played better as of late, especially with Reeves Nelson no longer part of the team. The Bruins come into this game with two straight wins over newcomers Colorado and Utah after getting swept on the road by the Oregon schools. This has been the Bruins’ story throughout conference play, solid games at home, weak performances on the road. This should be huge and with the Bruins historically playing bad basketball at Hec-Ed, the Dawgs should definitely be considered the favorites coming into the match.

The Bruins are a forward heavy team, lacking in solid guard play, which has certainly been the core of their problems. Lazeric Jones has had to really step up his play for UCLA to find any type of success and has been doing a very reasonable job of playing above his past levels. Jones is currently first on the team in both scoring and assists with 13.4 and 4.6 per game respectively. He is also first in turnovers per game with 2.5, something the Dawgs should be looking to heavily exploit. Personally, I would like to see Tony Wroten guard Jones as Wroten is a much better defender than Gaddy (2 steals per game versus .7 indicates more stringent defense, though Wroten has been known to miss assignments on occasion). Jones is just one of several respectable shooters on the team, hitting 37% of his shots behind the arc and 44% from the field. Jones is a respectable free throw shooter with a 75% average on the season. Keeping Jones in check will be critical for the Husky defense as the UCLA offense runs primarily through Jones.

The Wear twins each average at least 10 points per game (Travis is averaging 12 per game) and 5 rebounds (David is picking up 6 per game). Both are solid post players with a great inside shot and show decent mobility on the wings, though David is the better shooter of the pair with 9 makes on 15 attempts to Travis’ 3 makes on 6 attempts. Travis is the better foul shooter. At 6-10 225lb, the twins are tall enough to do shoot over their defenders, but thin enough to move past them as well. Aziz N’Diaye should have the muscle to take either of them to the rack without too much difficulty and should be able to keep the twins out of the paint as well. Austin Serferian-Jenkins may be undersized compared to the twins, but is much stronger and likely much faster than either, which will be important if they begin to rove around the perimeter.

Josh Smith. The kid could be an athlete, a dominate one at that, but his weight issues continue to hold him back. Smith averages only 17 minutes per game, but is solidly over 300lbs. Smith often uses his girth to push others out of his way, but as I said with the Wear twins, our post players have distinct strength advantages. Smith scores an average of 9.7 points and 5 boards per game. Smith is not a great shooter outside the paint and is almost as bad of a free throw shooter as N’Diaye, hitting only 53 of 93 attempts from the foul line. Smith also averages 2 turnovers per game. If the Dawgs can play tight defense, they can cause real havoc due to the poor ball handling UCLA often displays.

Tyler Lamb and Jermine Anderson may be the most dynamic and potentially explosive players for the Bruins. They each average around 9 points, 3 rebounds, as well as 3-4 assists per game. Both commit nearly 2 turnovers per game. Their shooting percentages are nearly identical and have made 25 and 23 3-pointers respectively. Lamb scored a season high 26 against California, while Anderson had 20 against Chaminade, a DII school, in the Maui Invitational.

Predicted Starting Line-Ups:

UCLA:

Lazeric Jones 6-0 187lb
Jermaine Anderson 6-2 183lb
Tyler Lamb 6-5 200lb
Travis Wear 6-10 220lb
David Wear 6-10 225lb

Washington:

Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
Tony Wroten 6-5 205lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Desmond Simmons 6-7 225lb
Aziz N’Diaye 7-0 260lb

Keys to the Game:

• Rebounding - Offensive boards were the number 1 reason the Huskies won their game against the Wildcats last Saturday. Rebounds will continue to be the biggest key to success. The Husky offense has been slumping lately from deep, due mainly to the absence of C.J. Wilcox from the line-up. Speaking of Wilcox, he will not practice the remainder of the season and will be day-to-day for games, much like B-Roy his junior season. Our players have superior strength and size, despite UCLA’s depth in the frontcourt, and must utilize this to box their men out and clear house on the glass.
• Backcourt Defense - The Husky backcourt defense is definitely the strong point of our team and where UCLA’s offense is weakest in terms of ball handling. If the Dawgs can abuse this and get into transition, they stand a very good chance of blowing UCLA out of the water. The UCLA big men are not good in transition, especially Smith, and getting numbers in our favor will be much easier this way.
• Free Throws - I really don’t know what to say that I haven’t already said a thousand times. Free throws win ball games and with some home cooking hopefully heading our way, the Dawgs need to capitalize or risk keeping UCLA in the game. The best way for our team to get and score free throws is by having Wilcox and Ross attack the lanes. They are great foul shooters and are extremely capable in the paint.

Final Thoughts:

This is a very winnable game for the Dawgs and one has to think that with the Arizona win still in the back of their minds, the Huskies are feeling strong and capable. Hopefully this means a big time win and an impressive home showing, something that hasn’t truly happened since the opening tournament. I would really like to see this squad control the game from the opening tip, keeping their foot on the Bruins’ necks until the final minute. Too often, the Huskies slow their game down in the waning minutes and allows the opposition to close the gap. I’m all for getting our bench players in, but at this point in the season and our current weak standing, in terms of a tournament resume, we need all the big time wins we can get. This means going hard the full 40 minutes versus killing the clock.

Final Score Prediction: UW-88 UCLA-74

UCLA finished second in the conference last season with a 13-5 record and 24-11 overall. The Bruins will be a scary team this season. With six returning seniors, Josh Smith, and the Wear twins, UCLA will have a lot of talent especially in the front court.

They will be tall, strong, and skilled. A very dangerous combination that makes them the clear front runner in the Pac-12 and likely a top 20 to top 15 team. Their guard play may be slightly weaker than in previous seasons with the early departure of Malcolm Lee (he went in the second round to the Chicago Bulls and then was traded to Minnesota) and Tyler Honeycutt (picked in the second round by Sacramento).

UCLA brings in 3 new freshmen as well as gaining the eligibility of the Wear twins to pump up their roster. They have 6 players standing 6-8 or taller, including 4 players at 6-10. No one is shorter than 6-0 on the team.

Key Losses:

• Malcolm Lee, 6-5 200lb - Lee was a great PG and SG talent for the Bruins. He was second in scoring behind Reeves Nelson at 13 points per game as well as dishing out 2 assists per outing. His outside shot was a little suspect at only 30%, but he had a dangerous slashing drive attack that gave him a lot of opportunities in the key. Lee had great ball handling and defensive skills that made a huge mismatch for opposing point guards. He had the height to shoot over smaller guards and the speed to move around stronger opponents. Big loss for the Bruins. Lazeric Jones and Jermine Anderson will have to step up their games to fill the gap.
• Tyler Honeycutt, 6-8 188lb - Honeycutt was third in scoring for the Bruins at nearly 13 points per game. He was second in rebounding behind Reeves Nelson and ahead of Josh Smith. In my mind, Honeycutt could have used another year to develop his game, but he and the NBA decided they were ready and it probably has a lot to do with his height. Honeycutt did struggle at times against solid defenders and against UW he had trouble getting open shots (he went 4-12 and 0-6 from the field in two games against UW). Honeycutt is very similar to UW’s Terrance Ross in that he has a wide skill set from outside shooting to driving the lane and crashing the boards. Brendan Lane and Tyler Lamb will likely try to fill the hole left by Honeycutt.

Incoming Freshmen:

• Khalid McCaskill, 6-6 190lb - A new walk-on for the Bruins, replacing Alex Schrempf who has transferred to UW but will not play this season. McCaskill is known for his driving abilities, but also possesses a decent jump shot. I suspect McCaskill will redshirt or see very little if any play time. Even with a lack of talented depth in the back court, McCaskill is a ways back in the line-up.
• Norman Powell, 6-3 200lb - Powell is a slash and drive guard first and foremost. His mid-range and 3 point shot are still in development, but with his speed and athleticism he can create opportunities for himself and others in the open court. Powell will play the 2 as his ball handling skills are rough when going to his left, something that a 1 guard needs to be able to do. Give Powell a year or two to fine tune his game and he’ll be a much better guard for the Bruins.

Returning Players:

• Kenny Jones 6-0 190lb
• Lazeric Jones 6-0 187lb
• Tyler Trapani 6-0 190lb
• Nick Kazemi 6-0 175lb
• Jermine Anderson 6-2 183lb
• Larry Drew II 6-2 190lb
• Matt DeMarcus 6-3 203lb
• David Brown 6-3 185lb
• Tyler Lamb 6-5 200lb
• De’End Parker 6-6 215lb
• Reeves Nelson 6-8 235lb
• Brendan Lane 6-9 223lb
• Anthony Stover 6-10 235lb
• David Wear 6-10 225lb
• Travis Wear 6-10 220lb
• Josh Smith 6-10 305lb

Parker is a JC transfer who averaged about 12 points and 6 rebounds per game. A solid prospect with two remaining years of eligibility, Parker should contribute almost immediately at the 3 position.

Smith still remains to be overweight and out of shape, which greatly limits his ability to contribute in transition plays and often led to sloppy fouls when defending outside the post.

Between Nelson and the Wear twins, the Bruins have the strongest 4 and 5, possibly, in the nation. A lot of rebounding and post scoring ability to be sure. Nelson is a work horse who is the returning leading scorer for UCLA at nearly 14 per game and a team high 9 rebounds. Nelson will likely average a double double next season much like former UW star Jon Brockman. I like Nelson for a possible Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate.

Predicted Starting Line-Up

G – Lazeric Jones, 6-0 187lb
G – Jermine Anderson, 6-2 183lb (After his two game suspension for theft)
G/F – Tyler Lamb, 6-5 200lb
F – Reeves Nelson, 6-8 235lb
C – Josh Smith, 6-10 305lb

What to Expect:

Smith and Nelson will be the leading scorers and rebounders this season, without a doubt. Smith uses his weight to make up for his lack of agility in the post to score against defenders. Aziz N’Diaye will need to keep his foul situation under control against UCLA to prevent Smith from dominating inside.

UCLA has a tough tournament ahead in Maui (which UW participated in last year). UCLA’s success will largely depend on how well the backcourt can move the ball around to feed it inside where their true strength lies.

Expect UCLA to dominate a lot of smaller teams and, even in conference play, they should find a few teams they can push around at will. Teams can beat UCLA by excellent guard play and defense, preventing the ball from moving inside.

UW should be able to compete, but I expect a series split this season with each team winning at their home court. I can’t see UCLA losing to many games in conference and should finish no lower than third, though finishing lower than second in conference should be considered disappointing considering the talent on the team.

Word is that UCLA signee (and former Husky recruit) Josh Smith has a partially torn patellar tendon, an injury he suffered in Tuesday night’s Kentwood High School game against Federal Way. No word yet on how much time he’ll miss,  but obviously not good news for him or the Bruins.

Here’s the link to the Seattle Times’ coverage of the injury.

Best wishes to Josh for a speedy recovery. We’ll monitor this as there’s more news.

This week, though, had its share of fun too, and most importantly left the Huskies still unbeaten:

Yo Adrian, how rocky did you leave things at UW!?: The Huskies defeated San Jose State, 80-70, in a mostly uninspired effort on Friday night. Quincy Pondexter, though, played like a man on fire, and let us all in on some of the dirty laundry left over from when Spartan guard Adrian Oliver transferred away from UW.

Jinx whut?: Isaiah Thomas made the cover of Sports Illustrated. There were six regional covers, and I.T. and the Dawgs were the only west coast team represented, and the cover distributed (as far as I can tell) throughout all of the Pac-10 areas.

A great pleasure this week was buying my copy from a newsstand at Oakland airport, and thinking about all of the Cal fans who must be tickled to walk in and buy their issue of SI with Isaiah’s mug on the cover. Buy an 11″ x 14″ print of the cover here.

The underappreciated superstar: We did this piece about how Isaiah Thomas looks like a better ballplayer this season, despite having such a strong freshman campaign last year. Percy Allen also pointed to this marked improvement and wrote this piece for the Times.

Big Josh signs and T.J. waiting: Josh Smith signed his letter of intent to play ball at UCLA on Tuesday, after announcing his decision last week. Here’s our post, which many readers disagreed with, listing three good things about not getting Josh. And, just as news of one recruiting drama was being put to bed, Terrence Jones decided to wait until the spring period to sign, likely meaning many more months of speculating about where he’ll end up.

Pac-10 floundering: No school in the conference has played more than four games, and only four teams remain unbeaten. Without a quality win yet, and several very bad losses (cue up the Sacramento State fight song!), the Pac-10 is looking more and more to be fulfilling the “down year” label it received from mcuh of the national media.

Thanks for coming!

Here are three positive things about not signing Smith:

1. There’s no need to examine the possibility of changing the entire offense for a back-to-the-basket post player. An interesting chart in ESPN’s College Basketball Preview issue showed that Spencer Hawes was one of the rare, recent one-and-done players to have a negative effect on his team’s results. With their current makeup, post guys like Jon Brockman or Tyreese Breshers may be better suited to thrive at UW. That’s not to say Josh wouldn’t have put up spectacular numbers here, but maybe it would’ve been to the detriment of the program as a whole. Maybe.

2. “One-and-done” guys are a mixed blessing. Yes, the results bear out that teams generally have success in the years that one-and-done players attend their schools. Carmelo Anthony at Syracuse is the best example of a guy coming in for a single season and, basically, delivering a national championship all by himself. But, is there a more icky part of following the sport than seeing a guy unapologetically use a season of college ball as nothing more than a pro audition?

I know, I’m naive. A lot of the players we watch will stay in school only as long as they need to in order to land an NBA job. There’s just something that doesn’t sit well when it’s so obvious from the very start. (I know: there’s no guarantee that Josh leaves school after his freshman year. But, the “one-and-done” tag has been applied to Josh for months, so I’ll bet he is.)

3. It’s going to be even sweeter whooping UCLA’s butt next season. There’s an old saying that goes, “the best revenge is living well.” I’m thinking we’re going to live very well next year, even without Josh, while UCLA may be in year two of what looks like a semi-rebuilding phase.

Montlake Madness truly wishes Josh well: no injuries, a basketball career as great as he’s willing to work to make it, etc. Everything but victories at the college level.

Sure, it hurts to lose a blue-chip, hometown guy. But, if it should turn out that the Dawgs are busy making a run through the Tournament long after Josh and UCLA have finished their season?

We’ll send a postcard, and you can bet it won’t say “wish you were here.”

Here’s the report from the Times’ Sandy Ringer.

UW now sets its sights firmly on Terrence Jones, who may or may not announce his choice during the early signing period.

Boo, Josh. Boo. . .

The situation: The early signing period starts next Wednesday, November 11th, and runs for a week. Both Josh Smith and Terrence Jones are expected to announce their decisions during this period. If the Huskies go two-for-two, their recruiting class for 2010 will be one of the best in the country, if not the consensus #1. Even if the Huskies get one of these two likely future stars, their prospects for next season, even with the graduation of Quincy Pondexter, will likely be even higher than this year.

Josh Smith: Josh is a 6’10″ center from nearby Kentwood High School, ranked somewhere in the top five big men in the country, depending on who’s doing the ranking. ESPN currently has Josh as the #1 center in the land, and the #10 prospect overall. The good news: UW is one of the two schools Josh is still considering. The bad news: nearly all of the intel coming from the voices covering the Huskies points to Josh choosing UCLA.

The buzz on Josh: One theory says that he’s worried about cheap shots on the football field, so he doesn’t want to announce he won’t be playing at home until the gridiron season is over. Another supposition says that Josh’s mom wants UW, but his dad wants UCLA. The biggest reason to hold out hope is that Josh still hasn’t announced anything, even though UCLA has been the word for months.

Terrence Jones: Terrence Jones is a 6’8″ forward from Portland, ranked fifteenth overall by ESPN. Jones has narrowed his list to five schools: UW, Oregon, UCLA, Oklahoma and Kentucky. He takes his final visit, down to UCLA, this weekend. Jones is less of a sure bet to make his choice during the early signing period, but has crammed a whirlwind tour of five schools into a short period of time, which means there’s a good chance he’d like to get the process over with.

The buzz on Terrence: Word on the street is that UW and Oregon are in the driver’s seat, based on the thought (wishful thinking?) that he may be leaning toward staying close to home. Like Josh, Terrence has been mostly silent of late. He’s been complimentary of Coach Romar, but also of Coach Capel at Oklahoma. And, then there’s Kentucky, which can’t ever be counted out of a recruiting battle. Oh… and then there’s UCLA right there in the mix.

Here’s what I think is going to happen: I think we’re not going to get either of them.

Why I don’t think we’ll get Smith: Sometimes, where there’s smoke, there is really fire. While I don’t know which of the theories, if any, I really buy into, I just get a sense that the answer has always been UCLA, and, for whatever reason, Josh has held off announcing.

Why I don’t think we’ll get Jones: I think we have as good a shot to land Jones as any of the other schools on his list. Despite his looking glum and unexcited at UW’s Midnight Madness event, I believe he truly considers UW a distinct possibility. But, we’re one of five — that’s 20%. If I’m betting, I’m betting on the field at 80%.

Why you shouldn’t think we’re getting these guys either: Wouldn’t you rather be pleasantly surprised than bitterly disappointed? No one (read: NO ONE) really knows anything, particularly since both recruits have played things very close to the vest. The “truth” won’t exist until these kids announce and make something true. So, until then, wouldn’t you rather be excited about Desmond Simmons coming in 2010, and the fact that every player on the Dawgs, except Quincy Pondexter is likely to come back? That way, you have nowhere to go but up.

Since, like everyone else, I know absolutely nothing, that’s my mindset. What’s yours? Would love to hear whether you agree or not, so please vote in the poll above.

Thanks for coming!

Lucky 13 and picks galore: It’s easy to deride the polls when they don’t give your team enough credit, especially since the only number that really matters in college basketball is whether you’re number 65 (the last team into the NCAA Tournament) or number 66 (the first team out). But, since UW was ranked 13th in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches’ Poll, and 14th by the Associated Press, I’ve got nothin’ but love for the polls this week.

It also seems that this was the week a lot of sites ran their conference and team preview articles. I enjoyed Rivals.com’s preview, which called Quincy Pondexter the most underrated player in the league. We decided to wait, and you’ll see our big Pac-10 season preview next week.

Walk-on by: The Daily at UW got the scoop on the walk-on situation, which may be a non-factor to the viewing fan, since there’s been no indication yet whether Rudy Sharar and Brendan Sherrer (really? Sharar and Sherrer?) will dress for games.

@LoRo Shhh! This scrimmage is closed: The only information available about last weekend’s closed door scrimmage at St. Mary’s was from Tweets from some of the Dawgs’ players. We, like, totally felt like we’d reached a new low by trying to decipher some of what read.

Pac-10 holds Media Day and reveals that media <HEARTS> Arizona: The Pac-10 asks its regular beat writers (including the Times’ Percy Allen) to submit their 1-10 predictions for order of finish in the league. Arizona, which brings in a strong freshman class, but no one who projects to be a from-day-one impact player in the league, is inexplicably picked fourth. No idea how that makes sense.

Here’s Percy’s first and second post from Media Day. And, if you’re super-interested, watching this video of the event is the best way to hear it all. (As of this writing, though, the video link was not working, although I assume they’ll get it fixed shortly.)

Josh Smith torture show continues: Despite a huge chorus of media calling him a done deal to UCLA, Josh Smith is on his official visit to Washington this weekend. Truly, I hope the kid does what’s best for him, which could be UW and could be UCLA. But, this has reached a whole other level as far as fan investment in a single recruit, and the B of A faithful are not likely to forget this roller-coaster ride in the event Josh’s only college games in Seattle are played in a Bruins uniform.

Shameless: In case you missed them, here are our interviews with Desmond Simmons and Elston Turner.

Big week ahead: This week will mark your first chance to watch the Dawgs play a game, and even though it won’t count, Montlake Madness will be incredibly relieved to have actual basketball to write about.

The exhibition game is Wednesday night at 7 PM against Central Washington at Bank of America Arena. We’ll run a game preview that morning and get you familiar with the opposition, along with pointing out some things to watch for. If you’d like to be there in person (the game isn’t on TV), get your tickets here for only $10.

Thanks for coming!

Finally, this looks to be winding down, as all had been quiet on the Josh Smith front for about a week before this news.

There are a lot of people who think Josh is a lock to choose UCLA, including Sports Illustrated’s Seth Davis and much of the local media covering the team. I just don’t know, but I take heart in the fact that he hasn’t announced yet. Hopefully, the coaches and players can make some major headway next weekend and convince Josh that playing at home for a year or two is the way to go.

Thanks for coming!

The story reports that they’ve let Oklahoma know that Smith won’t be taking a visit there, but will visit UW in the next few weeks, and announce his decision shortly thereafter.

This has been the story of the off-season for Husky fans, with a lot of back and forth on message boards and websites, and an awful lot of will he?/won’t he? rumors. I’ve enjoyed watching this unfold and sharing what we know with you. This, after all, is college basketball’s version of the hot stove, and what better to occupy our minds with during the (too) long off-season? Anyone feeling fatigued by the ups and downs of waiting to see if Smith will come play at UW should consider the alternative: nary a prized recruit even considering the Huskies.

Yes, the buzz I’ve heard definitely tends to lean in the direction of UCLA. Examples pointing to this abound, like this one after his official visit to LA: Josh’s current Facebook status (from Monday) is “had the best weekend of life. shout out to my ucla family.” (sic)

One of the interesting points I’ve read now and then is that Smith, a potential one-and-done player (although this is purely speculation), would be a bad addition for UW. Some point to Spencer Hawes setting back the program (which I disagree with), and think Smith will be a similar example. Others point to the 6’9″, 270 pound Smith being a player who will fit poorly into Coach Romar’s run-and-gun offense.

I’m not going to argue that Terrence Jones (recruiting story #1B of the off-season), a long and athletic forward might be a better fit style-wise, but can anyone really make the case that one of the top big men in the country coming to UW would be a bad thing? Really?

I know a lot of the sources out there covering the team think Josh Smith to UCLA is a done deal. But, we’re here to bring you the fan’s perspective, shamelessly. And what does a fan do? Die hard.

So, we’ll keep covering the recruitments of Josh Smith and Terrence Jones until they declare elsewhere, because getting either of them would put the UW program in a position to enter the national championship discussion. Can you even imagine getting both?

Thanks for coming! What do you think? Is the recruiting roller coaster tiresome for you? Why? Let us know!