USC enters this game with a miserable 6-17 record highlighted by a 1-8 conference record. If not for the miraculous blowout of Utah, USC would be 0-9 in conference and on an 11 game losing streak. Instead the Trojans enter Saturday’s game on a 1 loss streak, losing by 7 to WSU on the road. Not bad for a team with only 6 scholarship players available. Five different USC players have suffered season ending injuries, leaving USC heavily undermanned. Maurice Jones is so important to this team that USC Coach Kevin O’Neil stated before the season that “if Maurice Jones gets hurt, don’t come to our games.” Rough talk, but an honest statement. Maybe not one I would make publicly as a coach, but perhaps it needed to be said to fire up the team. Last week O’Neil was also quoted saying something about a van falling on his head would not be unexpected.

The Trojan line-up is overall, very short, but they do have 7-1 260lb James Blascyzk who is impressively size, but completely underwhelming in terms of skill and production. Out of the 8 players who took the court against WSU (remember, they have only 6 scholarship player), the tallest player outside of Blascyzk is 6-6 Garrett Jackson. Their guards vary in height from 5-7 Jones to 6-5 Byron Wesley. Jackson and Blascyzk are the only active players not listed as guards on the USC roster.

Maurice Jones is essentially the entirety of this team. He leads the in points (14.2), assists (3.4), steals (1.7), free throw percentage (technically he is second, but had 3 times the makes the the highest), and 3-pointer percentage (same thing, technically not first, but has made many more). If not for Aaron Fuller and the fact he is only 5-7, Jones would probably fight his way into first on the team in rebounding as well.

Aaron Fuller was the only other Trojan averaging double digit scoring, but suffered a shoulder injury resulting in season ending surgery. Fuller is joined by 7-footer Dwayne Dedmon, the most recent victim of a season ending injury, Jio Fontan (who was coming off a very successful junior season), Evan Smith, and Curtis Washington on the sidelines.

These injuries leave Byron Wesley as the next highest scorer and the highest active rebounder on the team with 7.6 points and 4.8 boards a game. Wesley is also second in assists (1.9), steals (.8), and turnovers (2.1). Wesley is only 1 of 7 from range and 21 of 43 from the foul line. Much like the rest of the USC squad, he is not an offensive threat despite his decent scoring average.

This image says all you really need to know about this year’s Trojan squad. In not one major offensive statistical category is USC ranked above 300. That is rough. Thank god the Trojan fans have football to look forward to.

The Trojans do one thing well: slow the ball down and play defense. The opposition has only scored more than 70 points in only 2 games this season. On the other side, the Trojans have only scored more than 70 one time in an 83 point explosion against TCU. The Trojans have been held to 50 or less points 9 times, including a season low of 36 against Cal Poly.

With all the injuries, USC loses nearly 20 points of their already disgustingly low 54 point average as well as 11 rebounds from their 28 board average. That is absolutely devastating no matter which way one looks at it.

It’s hard to know what this battle-worn USC team will bring to the table. Greg Allen has the potential to do a ton of damage as he showed against WSU when he dropped 17 on them, including a 5-11 performance from deep. On the other hand, Allen could be completely shut down. Allen did not play in 6 games this season and tallied 0 points on 8 separate occasions. He has only reached double digits three times this season. Out of everyone on the team, Allen’s 3-pointer has the best chance of catching fire. Allen is only 6-3 180lb and is thus a favorable match-up for guys like Terrence Ross or Tony Wroten.

Starting Line-Up Predictions:

USC:
Maurice Jones 5-7 155lb
Alexis Moore 6-2 180lb
Byron Wesley 6-5 210lb
Garrett Jackson 6-6 225lb
James Blascyzk 7-1 260lb

Washington:
Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
Tony Wroten 6-5 205lb
Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb (I think he replaces Simmons who has been slow as of late)
Aziz N’Diaye 7-0 260lb

Keys to the Game:

• Control the Pace - The Trojans will look to slow the game down to the point that their malignant offense can stand a chance. They will do this by using up the clock, pulling guys back on free throws, and clogging the middle with a zone defense. I’m sure many Husky fans recall this last season and, personally, this is the worst type of basketball in the world. The shot clock was introduced because guys like Kevin O’Neil play sloooooowwwwww basketball. I love the fast paced style that the Huskies thrive on. It is exciting and produces highlight reel plays every night.
• Free Throws - In slow paced games, every point counts. The Huskies continue to struggle as a whole to convert shots at the line. We need to get guys like Ross, Wilcox, and dare I say it, Wroten to the line. They have converted the highest percentage of freebies as of late. N’Diaye needs to do some work on his shot to get to the level of free throw shooting that makes fouling him a poor choice versus a decent choice.
• Get Hot From the Start - If the Huskies can get a lead early in this game, the lack of bench for USC will prove to be the death of them. The problem is that the Huskies have been a second half team this season and have not been successful in getting their scoring going until they have started shooting on the opposite side they started from. Maybe the view is nicer on one side than the other. Whatever it is, it has to change and the Dawgs need to figure out how to put together a full 40 minutes of play. The Trojans are not a team that will be dropping 70-80 points, nor do they normally allow more than 70. Even Kansas, ranked 11 the time, was only able to put up 63 on the Trojans.

Final Thoughts:

This is a game the Dawgs should not struggle with but the Huskies have been unpredictable. Coming off back-to-back emotional wins against Arizona and UCLA has the Dawgs feeling high and mighty and they cannot let this go to their heads and fall apart by playing down to USC’s level. This win is monumental in continuing our charge towards the league title and an at-large bid, should the Dawgs fall in the post season tournament. We have a chance to go 16-2, but it all hinges on playing this type of basketball the rest of the season. By this I mean the final 4 minutes where the Bruins only scored 4 more point. Tough defense, hardcore offense, and a strong, collective team effort.

Go Dawgs!

Once a tough game for any team, this year’s version of head coach Herb Sendek’s team is definitely struggling. At 6-13 (2-5) this year, the Sun Devils are 288th and 289th in scoring and rebounding nationally, respectively. That’s really bad. On top of that, they only scored 43 points against another poor team in Utah last Saturday. I almost feel bad for them… almost.

Their leading scorer, Trent Lockett (13.9), has been out for the last two games and is questionable for the game against the Huskies. He was a real breakout player last season and it can be nothing but good news if he’s out.

Their second leading scorer this season, Kaela King (13.7), has left the team entirely. It’s just not the Sun Devil’s year. At guard, that leaves Carrick Felix (10.7 ppg), Chanse Creekmur (5.4), and Chris Colvin (5.7) holding down the fort. Like I said, it’s just not the Sun Devil’s year.

Felix is an explosive athlete at 6-6 and, without Lockett in the line up, is their best scoring option. Look for him and Ross to go one-on-one almost the entire night. Colvin is their default point guard averaging a 3.1:3.0 assist/turnover ratio. Creekmur scored 24 points against Oregon State when he caught fire from deep shooting 6/7. In the two games since then he has scored zero points while playing 66 minutes. I’m not too worried about him.

In the post it doesn’t get much better. Ruslan Pateev, the seven footer from Russia, will square off with Aziz at center in an international clash of the ages. Pateev has struggled this year averaging only 14 minutes a game at 4.8 points and 3.4 rebounds. Alongside Pateev will be sophomore Kyle Cain and freshman (from Denmark) Jonathan Gilling. Cain was a highly touted recruit who has under performed and I have never even heard of Gilling before.

Projected Starters:

ASU

Chris Colvin – 6-2

Chanse Creekmur – 6-5

Carrick Felix – 6-6

Jonathan Gilling – 6-7

Ruslan Pateev – 7-0

UW

Abdul Gaddy, 6-3 

Tony Wroten Jr., 6-5 

Terrence Ross, 6-6 

Desmond Simmons, 6-7 

Aziz N’Diaye, 7-0 

Note: I’m assuming that Trent Locket is not starting, if that wasn’t obvious.

Keys to the Game:

• Pace – It doesn’t get more different than between these two teams. The Huskies lead the conference with 62.7 field goal attempts per game and the Sun Devils are dead last with only 46.5. ASU will look to slow down the game to a snail’s pace and limit possessions. UW needs to get out on the break and run.
• Rebounding – Perhaps this needs it’s own post, but the Huskies are DOMINATING the boards this season. They are first in the conference in RPG and 8th in the nation. It was a real concern of mine to begin the season and now it has become the biggest strength of this team. ASU is 10th in the conference in rebounding so the Huskies need to assert their dominance.
• 3-point Shooting – ASU and Sendek love the zone and without Wilcox, this team is limited in perimeter scoring options. Look for ASU to be in a lot of zone which means Ross/Gaddy/Gant need to be on point from deep. Tony, please notice how I did NOT mention your name.

by: John Chase

Sorry for a lack of game review following the humiliating and embarrassing loss to SDST, but I just couldn’t bring myself to relieve that experience. Arguably one of, if not thee, worst loss in the last 10 years and possibly in program history.

The only players I thought played a truly complete and solid game were Desmond Simmons and Darnell Gant. Simmons is a workhorse who’s attitude the entire team should emulate. Simmons had 11 boards, 7 offensive, and scored 8 points. Gant put up 10 rebounds, 5 offensive, and dropped 15. Outside of them, it was a lot of bad basketball and underachieving play.

On to Cal State.

Cal State is 3-6 on the year coming off two straight wins against Pepperdine and Pacifica (who the beat by 41). In each of their wins they have scored at least 73 points, with two games in the 90′s. Their losses have featured scores of 67 or less with a low of 49. On the year the Matadors are averaging just under 70 points and 37 boards per game. The are shooting 37% from the field as well.

The Matadors receive solid contributions from a number of players and are led in scoring by Stephan Hicks, a 6-5 190lb guard, who is averaging over 17 points per game and a team high 8.7 rebounds per game. He is a do-it-all, hard working player that is an extreme threat in all aspects of the game. Hicks is a fantastic free throw shooting who drains nearly 90% of his attempts from the line. What I wouldn’t do to have him coach Tony Wroten….

Five other players average over 8 points per game, with three of those players scoring double digit averages. Michael Lizarraga is third in scoring with 10 points per night and second in rebounding with 7 boards on average. Lizarraga stands at 6-7 240lb and is a very strong inside threat. Hopefully Aziz N’Diaye will be returning tomorrow as the game against SDST showed a glaring weakness in post defense without him on the court. Lizarraga is 0-3 from the FT line and 0-1 from outside. He does most of his work next to the rim and can be contained by keeping his touches outside the paint. Lizarraga has played in only one game this season so while his stats seem impressive, its hard to judge his abilities from a single outing.

Josh Greene leads the team in assists with 3.6 per game and is second in scoring, averaging 10.6 per outing. Greene is a 6-0 180lb guard with a sweet, sweet FT touch shooting 90.5% on the season and some great defensive abilities as well, leading the Matadors in steals. His outside shot is still being developed and has only made 16 of his 59 attempts on the year. Greene is second only to Vinnie McGee who is 17 of 91 on the season. As a team the Matadors are shooting a bit over 26% from outside, but are 78% from the FT line. Clearly this is a team that thrives on their inside game and getting to the foul line, where they average 22 attempts per game.

Vinnie McGee is a 5-10 170lb guard with 9.7 ppg on the year. He is second in assists with 2.7 per game, but is also averaging 2 turnovers per game.  He is a 75% free throw shooter and like the rest of his team does most of his work inside the paint. McGee does lead the team in 3-point makes, but with a 28% shooting average from deep, he is not a huge threat from outside.

Frankie Eteuati is their starting center and is build very similar to UW’s own Jernard Jerreau. Eteuati stands 6-10, but weighs in at only 190lb. He is not a big contributor averaging only 1.4 points and 2.1 rebounds in his 8 games thus far. The Matadors do not possess a true big man threat, something the Huskies would be good to attack.

Predicted Starting Line-Ups:

Cal State:

G – Vinnie McGee 5-10 170lb
G – Josh Greene 6-0 180lb
G – Aqeel Quinn 6-4 190lb
F – Stephan Hicks 6-5 190lb
F – FrankieEteuati 6-10 190lb

Washington:

G – Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
G – C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
G – Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
F – Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
C – Aziz N’Diaye 7-0 260lb (If N’Diaye is still out, I’d bet on Desmond Simmons starting)

Keys to the Game:

• Attack the Rim - Only Tony Wroten has been doing this as of late. While I commend him for this, he has no right hand and this often leads to terrible lay-ins that clunk off the rim. I appreciate him drawing fouls, but he is still a terrible foul shot. Ross and Wilcox need to get aggressive and start taking shots inside. Wilcox has been better than Ross at this, but he all to often draws up short of contact, missing out on easy free throws. With the Matadors lacking a strong inside presence, UW can really affect the game by getting in the paint and attack them at their weakness.
• Defense - This may seem vague, but after the horrendous defense UW put out against the Jackrabbits I feel like it has to be said. Too many players are not getting the lateral movement they need to stay in front of their man and in turn preventing them from driving the lanes. The Dawgs need to communicate better on defense to ensure rotations lead to tight man coverage rather than open shots.
• Rebounding - This is something the Huskies can do either very well or very poorly depending on the game. Recently its been on the up-and-up with Simmons and Ross leading the way behind the ever constant N’Diaye. It’s all about controlling the offensive glass to give our shooters opportunities and maintaining the defensive glass to prevent second chance shots by the opposition. I think a big part of tomorrows game will be how well UW can use its superior size to eat up rebounds.

Final Score Prediction: - UW-85 CSN-70

I truly hope Romar watches the tape from our last game and begins to appreciate just what kind of work Simmons does for our team. He is one of the toughest, hardest working players I’ve seen since Jon Brockman was rocking the number 40. He needs more play time and a bigger role in the team’s game plan.

I also hope Romar begins to coach Wroten on how to use his right hand and begins to hold him more responsible for his wild plays and passes. He has to learn that this is college, not high school, and players are much more aware and capable of stopping his plays form happening.

If Ross and Wilcox and finally begin to deliver inside and develop into the players they should be, this team will greatly benefit from it. At this point, UW needs to win the conference title with at least 14 wins to secure an at-large bid, but I will not feel comfortable unless we secure the Pac-12 auto bid by winning the conference tournament.

I hope this team can turn things around because at this point the season has been a huge bust of wasted potential.

Go Dawgs!

South Dakota State comes in with a 9-4 record, 2-0 in conference. They lost to the University of North Dakota 89-70 on the road in their last outing. SDST played UND 5 days earlier and won 92-54. Not sure the last time I’ve heard of a team playing two games against a team in less than a week. Not sure I’ve seen a team win by 40 then lose by 20 to the same team a week later either. Not sure what to think of that…

The Jackrabbits of SDST are a high scoring bunch. Their season average is 77 points, but they have 4 games of 92 or more points, including a 97 point game in OT. The Jackrabbits held their opposition to 60 points or less in two of those games. This is a team capable on both ends of the court and average nearly 38 rebounds a game. Second chance points are huge and SDST averages a bit under 12 offensive boards per game. The Huskies need to be more consistent in allowing 10 or less offensive boards. Many 3-point shots come after grabbing an offensive board and against a high scoring team like SDST that is a very real and very dangerous possibility. 6 players have over 10 3-point makes on the year and Griffan Callahan leads the team with 38 makes on 73 attempts.

One of the most dangerous aspects of the SDST team is their ability to get to the line. The Jackrabbits average nearly 24 free throw attempts per game and make around 16 per game. UW will need to play tough defense by sealing the lanes to prevent the type of penetration that often leads to free throws. With the Dawgs possibly rolling out the four guard line-up this could be a lot easier as our guards are much more mobile than some of our big men. Desmond Simmons and Darnell Gant move pretty well, but Martin Breunig and Shawn Kemp are not very quick on defense at times.

Nate Wolters leads the team in scoring with 20.2 points per game, while also adding 5 rebounds and nearly 6 assists. Wolters is also picking up almost 2 steals per game and a bit over 2 turnovers per game. He is also a preseason pick for the Summit Player of the Year. Wolters is a 6-4 190lb guard who is extremely dangerous and I fully expect Terrence Ross or C.J. Wilcox to take on this duty after controlling UCSB’s star pretty well in the second half. Wolters is an prolific scorer who had a career high of 36 and already a 32 point game on the year. Containing and controlling Wolters is a huge key to winning this game.

Griffan Callahan is another tough body who is averaging over 11 points per game as well as a team high 6.2 boards per game. His 39% 3-point shooting is also a team high and he looks to be a very dangerous player as well. Callahan has three 20+ point games this season, but is on a streak of five games of 11 or less. His season high of 25 included 7 of 11 from deep. Callahan is a streaking shooter who is definitely looking to break out of a resent slump. Callahan clocks in at 6-4 200lb, meaning C.J. Wilcox, or even Tony Wroten, will likely draw this assignment as he is a superb shot blocker on the perimeter and knows how to read a 3-point specialist like himself.

Brayden Carlson rounds out their starting guards and also stands at 6-4 and 186lb. Unlike Wolters and Callahan, Carlson is not a high scoring guard, averaging only 6 points and 3 boards per game. Carlson also dishes out 3 assists and 2 turnovers per game. He has a season high of 11 points, but is on a streak of two straight 3 point outings.

Chad White comes off the bench as a 6-6 198lb guard and is third in scoring at 9 points per game, grabbing around 4 boards as well.

Jordan Dykstra and Tony Fiegen start in the frontcourt for the Jackrabbits. They stand at 6-8 222lb and 6-7 215lb respectively and combine for 15 points and 8 boards. The tallest player on the roster stands at 6-9, which is great for UW who will be without 7-0 Aziz N’Diaye until conference play. The Jackrabbit offense starts with the backcourt and is filled out by the frontcourt, similar to how UW itself operates.

Predicted Starting Line-Ups:

South Dakota:

G – Brayden Carlson 6-4 186lb
G – Nate Wolters 6-4 190lb
G – Griffan Callahan 6-4 200lb
F – Tony Fiegen 6-7 215lb
F – Jordan Dykstra 6-8 222lb

Washington:

G – Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
G – C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
G – Tony Wroten 6-5 205lb
F – Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
F – Darnell Gant 6-8 225lb

Keys to the Game:

• Free Throws - Wolters is a fantastic free throw shooter and went 7-7 in his last game. He gets to the line and usually makes about 3/4 of them. The Huskies can be a great free throw shooting team depending on who gets to the line. I give Wroten a ton of credit for working hard to the rack to get foul shots, but he needs to convert them at a higher rate. Wilcox and Ross need to take a page out of our point guards’ books and get to the line. Drive hard, create space with a cross over, fake pass, something…It’s easy enough to pump fake a shot and then jump into contact. UW could have pulled away from UCSB in the final minutes, but four straight free throws misses by UW made it a 3 point game rather than a 7 point game.
• Rebounding - The biggest difference between SDST’s two games against UND was the rebounding. In the win the Jackrabbits pulled down 42 boards, in the loss only 27. Limiting the 3-point shooting starts by preventing second chance opportunities. UW did a fairly solid job last game without N’Diaye on the court, getting three players with 7 or more boards, but they allowed 14 offensive boards and 40 total boards. The Huskies need to do a bit better screen their guys and boxing out to grab the defensive boards.
• Ball Movement - While it’s pretty impressive that we scored 87 points with only 8 assists, I don’t like how much our players are having to create on their own. This comes down to Romar and staff not drawing up solid plays. The movement and press options have improved, but are still a work in progress. Our players also need to understand how to give their shooters more opportunities. I love that Wroten is taking 20 shots and scoring 27 points, but when our two best shooters have less shots combined than Wroten, that is a bit strange and unacceptable. Drive and dish is a fantastic way to get some open looks on the perimeter as it collapses the defense.

Final Score Prediction: UW-88 SDST-75

I think this is a good match-up for the Huskies. The Jackrabbits play an uptempo game with similarly sized players. I think our line-up is more well rounded and we have a bit better post players in Gant and Simmons. Our guard play should be superior as well, but the Jackrabbits are not exactly scrubs themselves. Controlling Wolters will be a big priority and in turn the Dawgs need to keep on eye on sharpshooters like Callahan. If the Huskies can come out quick and put some pressure on SDST, they will be doing themselves a huge favor. I’d like to see some aggressiveness from Ross and Wilcox to compliment Wroten and Gaddy. If all four can show they are legitimate threats in the paint, our outside shots will open up and we could have ourselves quite a show.

Go Dawgs!

UCSB comes in with a 5-2 record, both losses coming in overtime. Their most recent game was a 65-61 win over USD. This game had a chance to turn into a loss when a few Santa Barbara fans threw tortillas on the court with .6 seconds remaining. Rather than assess the Gauchos with a technical, the refs opted to give the fans a formal warning and let play continue. A technical would have meant two free throws and possession of the ball. Making both free throws and sinking a quick shot could have given USD a 1 point win instead of a 4 point loss.

The Gauchos are a pretty solid offensive team averaging nearly 80 points and over 40 rebounds per game. They are also dishing out 16 assists per game and hitting around 46% from the field. Their defense is fairly proficient as well, allowing only 66 points and 33 boards per game.

Santa Barbara is only forcing 12 turnovers per game but are committing only 11 per game themselves. They have very solid point guards who know how to handle pressure situations and make the smart decision nearly every time. The Husky defense will need to bring the pressure hard to force the UCSB guards into uncomfortable situations.

Orlando Johnson is a superstar for the Gauchos. He leads the team in every major statistical category. He is averaging over 22 points, almost 7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and over a steal per game. Johnson has been absolutely stellar thus far and the Huskies will need to work their defensive magic to control his impact on the game. At 6-5 205lb, Johnson is a bit of a mismatch for both guards and forwards. I suspect C.J. Wilcox or Terrence Ross will draw this assignment as they have the length and athleticism to stay in his face and play more preventative defense.

James Nunnally is another strong player for Santa Barbara. At 6-7 205lb, Nunnally is a bit small for a forward, but taller than your average guard. He is averaging 18 points and nearly 6 boards per game. He is a fantastic free throw shooter with 31 makes on 38 attempts. He also has decent range with 11 makes on 33 attempts from deep. I suspect Desmond Simmons will draw this assignment should he take Aziz N’Diaye‘s starting position. Simmons has the speed, mobility, and tenacity to play tight D on Nunnally anywhere on the court.

Jamie Serna rounds out the tough UCSB back court. He is listed at 6-9 and 235lb. He is the only other double digit scorer with 11.6 points per game. He is also third in rebounding at 4.9 boards per game. Serna is not an outside shooter, but he does do a solid job of drawing fouls and has attempted 30 free throws on the year.

Santa Barbara also features 7-2 245lb Greg Somogyi from Hungary. Somogyi averages only 12 minutes, 3 points, and a bit under 4 rebounds per game.

Predicted Starting Line-Ups:

Santa Barbara:

G – Nate Garth 6-2 180lb
G – Christian Peterson 6-3 219lb
G – Orlando Johnson 6-5 205lb
F – James Nunnally 6-7 205lb
F – Jamie Serna 6-9 235lb

Washington:

G – Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
G – C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
G – Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
F – Desmond Simmons 6-7 220lb
F – Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb

Keys to the Game:

• Defensive Pressure - With a strong UCSB frontcourt and the absence of N’Diaye, the Huskies will have their work cutout for them when it comes to containing the oppositions scoring in the paint. Simmons and Gant will need to step up their games and the Husky bench will need to rise to the occasion. This means Shawn Kemp and Martin Breunig need to shake off the freshman jitters and establish themselves as contributing members of the team on a consistent basis.
• Rebounding - The Gauchos know how to rebound and so do the Dawgs. After watching Duke take apart the Huskies on long rebounds, it’ll be interesting to see how UW bounces back and if they can bang down low with Nunnally and Johnson. The Husky backcourt needs to go back to what they were doing to start the year by collapsing on the boards and picking up the mid range stuff outside the grasp of our frontcourt.
• Free Throws - If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times. Free throws win ball games, plain and simple. Ross and Wilcox are simply not doing enough to get to the line. So much so that Wilcox has not attempted a free throw in 5 games. Tony Wroten has more makes than anyone else on the team has attempted and his free throw shooting, while seemingly improving (thank god), is still terrible on the season. The UW backcourt, and even the frontcourt, can and needs to do much more to draw shooting fouls. Play through the contact, go strong to the hoop, pull of some dribble moves to get the defender off balance and make it happen.

Final Score Prediction: UW-86 UCSB-76
 
This is the first of 5 straight home games for the Huskies who have sorely missed the confines of Hec-Ed. The terrible road woes continue to be an issue, but something that must be corrected immediately if they want to get back the NCAA.

I think this is a winnable game for the Dawgs as they have a better backcourt and a decent enough frontcourt to content with the Gaucho big men. The key is playing a solid 40 minute rather than the 25 or 30 they have been the past few games. 4-4 is a bad place to be, especially considering they have lost the last 4 of 5.

These guys know how to win, they just need to execute and not give up early. Wroten has been tough these past few games and is really proving how valuable he is to this team. Yes, the turnovers are maddening and against Duke he went from a point guard to a shooting guard since no one else was attacking the rim. He may very well continue to develop this role if Wilcox and Ross refuse to draw fouls. While I appreciate the nice inside shots Wilcox took and made against Duke, he stopped well short of contact that could have had minimal effect on his shot and drawn a foul as well. UW needs to do everything it can to get Johnson into foul trouble early. This means a fast, motion offense with plenty of screens and players running hard and tight off of those screens.

So if you haven’t heard the news yet, Scott Suggs will be redshirting this season following a surgery in mid October on his foot to repair a broken bone. He was projected to return this week for the games in the Big Apple, but continuing foot pains slowed his recovery and places him more at a mid January return, leaving only 16 regular season games. Rather than play only a small section of his senior season, Suggs has opted to return next season. This could work out great in the long run, especially if Terrence Ross leaves early for the NBA. Right now, it sucks. We needed Suggs’ senior leadership on the court, especially in crunch time situations where a cool head and sweet shot are critical. Anyways…on to Duke.

The Blue Devils are coming off a big loss to Ohio State and a more recent win over Colorado State. Duke enters the game as the Number 7 team in the nation with an 8-1 record. UW and Duke have not played each other since 1989 so all previous games between the two squads are essentially null and void. The only common thread between then and now is Mike Krzyzewski.

To say Duke is going to be a tough match-up is an understatement. There is a good reason why they are in the top 10 and why many people projected a win over Marquette, but a loss to Duke. Duke has a very potent line-up from top to bottom and their frontcourt is just as strong as their backcourt.

Five players are averaging double digit scoring for Duke thus far in the season (Andre Dawkins is averaging 9.6 ppg so I’m including him). Austin Rivers, son of Doc Rivers, leads the team with nearly 16 ppg. Four players have hit 10 or more 3-pointers this season led by Andre Dawkins with 20 makes on 43 attempts.

The Plumlee brothers, Mason and Miles, dominate the glass for Duke with Mason clearly the superior ball player. Mason is averaging 9.8 boards per game and has four double-doubles on the year. Miles is averaging a second best 5 board per game. The two account for nearly 50% of Dukes 33 rpg average. Mason is also averaging over 2 blocks per game and is as much of a threat on defense as offense.

Duke is rounded out by a pair of more than capable shooters in Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly. Each average over 12 ppg and 3 rpg. Curry is the assist leader with 3.3 per game, while also committing 2 turnovers per outing. Overall, Duke is averaging just as many assists as turnovers (13).

As with Marquette, Duke plays a pretty similar style of basketball. The differences come in a much better frontcourt than Marquette and a slightly better backcourt. The Duke perimeter players are all deadly play-makers, but are not as skilled in the rebounding or assist category.

Keys to the Game:

• Rebounding: If there is one category UW can capitalize on to keep themselves in the game or possibly win it, it is rebounding. Duke averages a very low 33 boards per game and two players make up half that number. Mason will not be shut down. As strong defensively Aziz N’Diaye may be, Mason is quicker and more skilled and N’Diaye will likely struggle to keep him contained. What this means in terms of UW’s strategy is containing the rest of the Blue Devil squad and our backcourt crashing the glass hard. Keeping Duke’s sharpshooters from getting a second chance at the hoop is going to be huge in limiting the number of open shots they get. There is no better time to take a 3-pointer than after an offensive rebound. At that point the defense has likely collapsed, leaving the perimeter open for easy jumpers.
• Ball Control: Abdul Gaddy gave up the last possession against Marquette with 34 seconds on the clock and the game tied at 75. Instead of UW taking the game winning shot, Gaddy threw a terrible pass that was deflected and recovered by Marquette. We cannot afford those types of situations ever. Our turnovers in general have been much higher than they should be, due to not only Tony Wroten’s usual antics, but lately the unusually poor play of Gaddy. If UW wants to have any chance at an upset, they need to limit their turnovers and not give Duke extra possessions.
• Pressure the Backcourt: As good as Mason Plumlee is, he can be contained by limiting the touches he receives. The happens by containing the backcourt and forcing them to stay near the top of the key rather than on the wings where they can work the ball inside. Backcourt pressure will also help limit the number of 3-point attempts that Duke can take. If N’Diaye can somehow manage Mason and Miles, the backcourt will be able to breathe a little easier.

Projected Starting Line-Ups:

Duke:

G – Tyler Thornton 6-1 195lb (Andre Dawkins is having back problems and is doubtful to play Saturday)
G – Seth Curry 6-2 180lb
G – Austin Rivers 6-4 200lb
F – Mason Plumlee 6-10 235lb
F – Ryan Kelly 6-11 230lb

Washington:

G – Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
G – C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
G – Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
F – Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
C – Aziz N’Diaye 7-0 260lb

Final Thoughts:

Darnell Gant will likely draw the assignment on the tall, mobile, and sharp shooting Ryan Kelly. Wilcox will hopefully be put on shut down duty against Seth Curry, while Terrence Ross takes on Austin Rivers. Without Dawkins on the court, UW may stand a better chance of containing the perimeter shooting Duke is well known for.

All things considered this is another tough, but perhaps winnable game for the Huskies. An upset here would go a long ways towards calming the fan base and establishing some confidence in the teams ability to get it done on the road. It will also give UW and the Pac-12 a marque win that will be extremely important in March for the selection committee.

At this point, at least two projections leave out the Huskies from the NCAA and the highest seed they received in any projection is 10th. Unfortunately, a loss is a loss and a win is a win come selection time so while the close loss to Marquette may be a sort of moral win it does nothing for our record and chances at a fourth consecutive NCAA berth. The Huskies need to be firing on all cylinders, rotations on defense need to go smoothly, and shots need to drop.

Final Score Prediction: UW-78 DUKE-84

The skill level of the Duke frontcourt is going to be extremely difficult for UW to match, giving them a great advantage they will be sure to exploit every chance they can. It should be a close game thanks to our perimeter players, but if our starters cannot get to the foul line we will be hurting. Thank god Tony Wroten draws fouls, if only he could make his shots. We need high percentage shooters like Ross and Wilcox stepping to the line to convert the easy baskets. I’m still quite pessimistic about our chances against Duke, but I’m hopeful they can at least make it a competitive game. While this may not exactly be a “must win” game for UW, it will certainly make their lives easier to just go out there and win.

Go Dawgs!

Marquette. The name brings back memories. Quincy Pondexter sealed the deal in a 15 point come back in the first round of the 2009-2010 NCAA Tournament. Live it again here. This year it brings a little more to the table, namely an 11th ranked team in the top 11 for 3 of the 4 main offensive categories (PPG, APG, and FG%). With 84 points a game, Marquette plays a high octane offense in a very similar style to UW. Darius Johnson-Odom leads the team in scoring with nearly 20 points per outing. Jae Crowder follows closely behind with 17 points a game. Both players are 14-33 from range and are deadly accurate with the ball. Crowder also leads the Golden Eagles in rebounding with 6.7 boards per game.

Their offense produced 90+ points in the first 4 games. Not only can the Eagles score, but their defense is vicious as well. Marquette is allowing under 60 points a game and has an average margin of victory nearing 30 points. They are also holding their opponents under 35% shooting from the field.

Marquette is dishing out around 19 assists per game while committing only 13 turnovers. With 51% field goal shooting and 37% from the 3-point line, Marquette will prove to be an extremely tough team to defend. With 6 players averaging over 7 points a game, they have the tools to attack relentlessly and the UW defenders cannot afford to double team players or otherwise cheat on their defensive assignments.

The majority of Marquette’s offense comes from inside the arc with the team averaging only 4 or 5 3-pointers per game and most of those come from their top two scorers. What this means for the Huskies is that their outside scoring can be somewhat contained. This is again similar to UW where Terrence Ross and C.J. Wilcox provide the majority of the 3-point shooting, but others have show the ability to drain from outside.

Norfolk and Wisconsin managed to hold Marquette to 61 points or fewer, but the Golden Eagles prevailed none the less. In all reality there is little chance of this being a low scoring game as both the Dawgs and the Eagles love to push the tempo.

Predicted Starting Line-Ups:

Marquette:

G – Derrick Wilson 6-0 215lb 
G – Darius Johnson-Odom 6-2 215lb
G – Vander Blue 6-4 200lb
F – Jae Crowder 6-6 225lb
F – Chris Otule 6-11 265lb

Washington:

G – Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
G – C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
G – Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
F – Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb (I would agree in favor of Desmond Simmons getting a starting position until Gant can prove to be more consistent on the court)
C – Aziz N’Diaye 7-0 260lb

Keys to the Game:

• Rebounding - With the high volume of shots that will likely be going up tomorrow night, cleaning the glass will be crucial. If UW can keep Marquette off the offensive glass, while grabbing their own misses, the Dawgs will be doing themselves a huge favor in keeping the game manageable.
• Offensive Movement - This was and has been a huge problem for the Huskies not only this season, but in years past as well. When the Dawgs are forced to run a half-court offense, they often find themselves taking poor shots and turning the ball over. I’m hoping Romar gets some X’s and O’s drawn up should they find themselves slowed down once more. When UW can move the ball they find the most success.
• Ball Control After Friday’s 11 turnover in 11 minute debacle, UW doesn’t have to do much to improve. With such a great backcourt it is frustrating to see the Huskies commit so many silly errors by forcing unnecessary passes. Offensive movement should help solve the turnover problem immensely and ball control will tighten the reigns even more.

Final Thoughts:

This is a tough one. UW matches up well in personnel and tempo, but the Eagles have proven themselves to be a far more consistent and successful team. The Dawgs will have to scratch and claw their way to a victory.

If the Huskies can get some shots dropping early and don’t throw the ball away, they’ll be a few defensive stops away from a huge marque win that will do wonders for their confidence and post-season aspirations.

After the terrible performances UW has had on the road thus far, I’m hard pressed to call a Husky victory in the Big Apple. If there is one they will win though, I’d bet on this game rather than Duke.
Prediction: UW-74 MARQ-84

I just can’t see UW pulling off this one or the Duke game, for that matter. These are top 10 teams with great offensive and defensive ability that prove game in and game out to be tough, tough opponents. It’ll take just about everything going right to pull out the W. I’m holding my breathe, but don’t be surprised if UW gets tossed around a bit.

Go Dawgs!

Washington hits the road for the next few weeks, stopping first in Nevada for a match-up against the Wolf Pack. Nevada is having an up and down season with a 4-3 record thus far. Their biggest struggles are a result of their ball handling (or lack thereof). Big man Dario Hunt, 6-8 230lb, is averaging 4 turnovers a game. Olek Czyz and Deonte Burton are also averaging over 2 turnovers per game, though Burton is also dishing out nearly 4 and a half assists per game, accounting for a third of the teams total assists.

The Wolf Pack has a very dangerous shooter in Malik Story, their leading scorer with over 15 points per game. He is shooting 53% from range with 23 makes on the season. For reference, C.J. Wilcox is shooting 55%, but only has 16 makes. At 6-5 and 225lb, Story will have a bit of a size advantage making it even tougher to keep him out of the lane. With three starters at 6-7 or 6-8, Nevada will be a tougher team to defend.

Outside of his turnover issues, Hunt is a very solid contributor for the Pack. With 8 points and 8 boards a game, he is shoring up the middle quite well. Add in his 2 blocks and 1.4 steals a game and you find yourself up against a complete player who can do damage on both ends of the court. Thankfully he matches up size wise quite well with Darnell Gant. I would honestly expect Aziz N’Diaye to draw this assignment, however, as Hunt is not an outside shooter as opposed to fellow 6-7 forward Olek Czyz who has attempted 15 shots (2 makes) from the arc. 6-8 forward Jerry Evans has taken 20 from 3point land and made 5. All things considered we will likely see Gant on Evans and either Wilcox or Terrence Ross against Czyz.

Statistically, Nevada has played eerily similar to their opponents. Look at their numbers. Nevada averages 64.3 ppg, while surrendering 64.7. They dish out 13 assists and allow 14.6. 38 boards per game for Nevada and 35 for their opponents. The Wolf Pack is shooting 40.4% from the field, while opponents are shooting 41.3%. This could be a good or bad thing for the Huskies depending on how the tempo of the game plays out.

If UW can push the tempo the game will be easier as the Huskies average about 8 possession more per game than Nevada. The Huskies are averaging 1.1 points per possession while Nevada is averaging around .96 points so every extra possession the Dawgs can manage gives them another step up towards a victory.

What Nevada is doing best at is rebounding and preventing the opposition from cleaning the glass. The Pack has 3 players averaging 6 or more boards this season, something I wish our squad could get to. I won’t complain too much as the Huskies are averaging 43 boards per game (third in the nation), but if we could notch up a third rebounder to help N’Diaye and Ross I would be one happy camper.

Predicted Line-Ups:

Nevada:
G: Deonte Burton 6-1 185lb
G: Malik Story 6-5 225lb
F: Olek Czyz 6-7 240lb (by the way, can someone buy this dude a normal vowel, or perhaps a consonant, for his last name?)
F: Jerry Evans 6-8 188lb 
F: Dario Hunt 6-8 230lb

Washington:

G: Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
G: C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
G: Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
F: Darnell Gant 6-8 240lb
C: Aziz N’Diaye 7-0 260lb

Keys to the Game:

• Rebounding - This could be a tough game for UW in terms of rebounding. Nevada sizes up pretty well against our wings, a place where we find a lot of rebounding success. This is also the category where Nevada finds its biggest positive “disparity” from their opponents, which to me reads as a strong point. UW is far from a poor rebounding team, but they have also been known to give up far too many offensive boards. As much as it pains me to think so, I kind of expect Nevada to out rebound the Huskies on Friday. The key to avoiding this is shutting down Hunt and containing his movement.
• Frontcourt Pressure - Normally I am a big proponent of backcourt pressure to deny the big men rather than tougher defense on the block, due to our bigs’ foul troubles, however, with Hunt playing sloppy with the ball and having such a well rounded game I believe it will be important to not only ride him tight on defense, but also offensively by working the ball down low to draw fouls.
• Ball Control and Tempo - I hope Romar continues to be tough on his players, pulling them when mistakes are made. It seemed to get through to Tony Wroten Jr. and helped him play a more calm and collected game. Let him make some risky passes, but also hold him accountable when it gets out of hand. Abdul Gaddy continues to be one of the best ball handlers in the conference, if not the nation. With an assist/turnover ratio of 2.9 he is on his way to another fantastic season. The Wolf Pack is turnover prone, as I stated earlier, and UW needs to take advantage of that with tough, man-to-man defense. I know this wish will never be granted under Lorenzo Romar, but for god’s sake, please can we start the game with a press? I’ll even settle for a 3/4 court press or a half court press.

Final Thoughts:

The Huskies blew out Nevada at home last season 90-60 and if not for garbage time and bench substitutions, UW could have won by 40 (they lead by 39 at one point in the second). UW is a much different team from last season, as is Nevada, but I highly doubt the combined difference is worth 30 points. This will likely be a closer game as UW traditionally struggles early on the road as the SLU debacle showed.

UW has the advantage of a deeper bench and some taller players. We also possess an array of sharpshooters at every position outside the 5. I’m excited to see if Desmond Simmons can continue to supply the occasional 3 point shot with extreme accuracy. So far he is 3-3 on the season.

I think the late start, 8pm, will benefit the Huskies as they have more time to prepare watching tape and warming up. This should prevent the terrible start that occurred against SLU and will hopefully allow the Dawgs to get up early rather than having to claw their way up from a deficit.

Final Score Prediction: UW-80 NEV-68

I think UW will have their hands full, but with the SLU defeat in mind and the recent HBU win supplying some good feelings, the Huskies should be able to pull off a solid win and make them a little more confident heading to the Big Apple. A loss could send the Huskies spiraling downward for what will definitely be tough games against Marquette and Duke.

Go Dawgs!

The Pilots return to Hec-Ed once more following a 20-12 season, 7-7 in the West Coast Conference. Last season UW beat Portland 94-72 with Justin Holiday and Isaiah Thomas leading all scorers with 20 points. MBA added 15 and Scott Suggs dropped in 13 of his own. Nemanja Mitrovic led the Pilots with 15, followed closely by departed senior Luke Sikma with 14.

It’ll be two very different line-ups taking the court on Monday as the game’s top four scorers for the Huskies and two of the top three scorers for the Pilots have either graduated or are injured. Sikma had dominated the glass as well with 16 rebounds accounting for nearly 60% of his teams rebounds, four times as much as his next teammate and twice as much as anyone on the UW squad.

Coming into the 2011-2012 season, Portland looks to be rebuilding their frontcourt. Losing 3 starters from last years squad is tough enough, but the Pilots lose their top two rebounders in Luke Sikma and Kramer Knutson who were responsible for almost 50% of the teams total rebounds. That is even tougher to overcome and 6-11 freshman Thomas van der Mars will be asked to help fill that void. Luckily for Portland, their backcourt seems stable and skilled, which will help alleviate the absence of experienced talent in the post.

Nemanja Mitrovic is one of the top 3-point shooters in the nation, hitting 93 shots on 201 attempts last year, slightly better than highly touted 3-point shooter Jared Stohl who graduated this past season. He returns as the Pilots leading scorer after averaging just under 14 points a game. At 6-5 and 200lbs Mitrovic matches up well against the UW defense and will definitely be able to compete. The Dawgs will need to throw their top defenders at Mitrovic to keep him contained.

Another returning (semi)starter for the Pilots is 5-10 160lb Tim Douglas. Douglas led the team in assists last season, but also led in the turnover category. Portland also brings back a starter in Eric Waterford, 6-1 180lb, who had the best assist to turnover ratio at 1.9.

UP posts some decent size with Riley Barker at 6-10 and van der Mars at 6-11. Both have a lot of work to do before they can match the productivity of Knutson or Sikma, but it’ll have to happen if the Pilots want to compete this season.

Predicted Starting Line-Ups:

Portland:

G – Tim Douglas, 5-10 160lb
G – David Carr, 6-3 170lb
F – Nemanja Mitrovic, 6-5 200lb
F – Ryan Nicolas, 6-7 235lb
F  -Riley Barker, 6-10 225lb

Washington:

G – Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
G – C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
F – Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
F – Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
C – Aziz N’Diaye 7-0 260lb

Keys to the Game:

• Rebounding - Just like the past two reviews, and the rest of the season, I will continue to stress the importance of rebounding. Alongside free throws, nothing decides games more than how a team attacks the glass. With the loss of two extremely proficient rebounders, the Pilots will be looking for new players to fill the rebound column. UW can take advantage of this by using their more experienced rebounders to dominate the glass on both ends of the court. By boxing out their men in both the paint and the perimeter, UW can prevent missed shots turning into extra opportunities for the Portland sharpshooters.
• Perimeter Pressure - With a vast majority of Portland’s talent coming from their backcourt, UW will need to push their defensive efforts out. I would be vastly surprised to see UW run a zone defense as that type of defense is prone to 3 point attacks. Man-to-Man is the way to go and it is where the Huskies always excel. Portland matches-up much better against the Dawgs than the other two teams in the tournament and as such, the Huskies should expect a much better performance out of the Pilots than the other two squads.
• Get in the Paint - The Dawgs face another inexperienced frontcourt, making them susceptible to sloppy fouls and easy buckets. By getting our tall guards and wings to pressure the lanes, we can open up a lot of opportunities for the smooth shooting of guys like C.J. Wilcox on the perimeter. This is a great chance for our big men to play against players with a little more height, though the strength aspect still appears to be less tested. N’Diaye should have a solid 40 pounds on his defender and can use his weight to back down his man for the easy lay-in or dunk.

Final Score Prediction: UW-90 UP-70

While the Pilots have more talent than either Georgia State or Florida Atlantic, they do not possess the scoring talent and rebounding ability to compete with the Huskies. UW should take over fairly quickly with an aggressive rebounding attack to maximize second shot chances as well as preventing those for the Pilots.

Mitrovic will likely have some success from range and the Huskies need to limit these shots as much as possible. If I am Romar, Wilcox is my go to man for the defensive assignment in this game. He has great athletic abilities that allows him to block shots with authority. In my mind, Wilcox has shown the ability to change shots on the perimeter nearly as effectively as N’Diaye does in the paint.

All in all, UW should find themselves with another comfortable game in which Romar can learn a bit more about his team and which players really have chemistry together on the court.

Florida Atlantic is the returning Sun Belt champion, posting a 22-11 record, 13-3 in conference. With 4 returning starters and a line-up with 5 juniors and 3 seniors, the Owls have the experience and skill necessary to take the Sun Belt conference again.

Joe Lunardi currently has FAU in one of the four play-in games as a 16 seed. The Owls return 3 of their top 4 scorers including leading scorer, Greg Gantt, at 14 points per game. Their top two scorers, Gantt and Raymond Taylor, are also their top returning 3 point shooters, each hitting about 33% with 60 or so makes.

FAU does lose their top rebounder, a category they definitely struggle in at only 33 boards per game. With their tallest player standing at 6-8 and Taylor at 5-6 it is no surprise that the Owls have trouble on the glass. This is an area where UW can gain a HUGE advantage using their clearly superior size. FAU will add a 7-1 transfer next season to their roster as he is currently sitting out his transfer year as per NCAA regulation.

Predicted Starting Line-Ups:

Florida Atlantic:

G – Raymond Taylor 5-6 145lb
G – Alex Tucker 5-11 165lb
G – Greg Gantt 6-2 205lb
F – Jordan McCoy 6-6 185lb
F – Kore White 6-8 245lb

Washington:

G – Abdul Gaddy 6-3 185lb
G – C.J. Wilcox 6-5 190lb
G – Terrence Ross 6-6 195lb
F – Darnell Gant 6-8 230lb
C – Aziz N’Diaye 7-0 260lb

Keys to the Game:

• Rebounding - Washington should and will dominate the glass in this match-up. With such a ridiculous size advantage we can expect the Dawgs to come out with a +15 or more rebounding margin. This is the type of game where N’Diaye and Ross could both go for double doubles with points and rebounds as well as guys like Gaddy and Tony Wroten could possibly double-double with points and assists.
• Push the Post Option: - This is a great time for UW to get some serious points in the paint, valuable experience for later in the season against bigger frontcourts and tougher match-ups. With N’Diaye having a 4 inch and 20lb advantage and Gant with 2 inches and 50lbs on his man, its tough to see either of them struggling significantly with posting up their man. Ross, Wilcox, and especially Gaddy will also have significant size advantages that will allow them to drive the lane as well as elevate for some nice three point attempts.
• Force the Backcourt Pressure: - With our frontcourt having definitive size and skill advantages, the Dawgs can afford to push their backcourt defense a bit harder and cheat a little more on cutting off passes. The Owls scoring also finds most of its success on the perimeter so shutting down their guard play with tough, in-your-face defense will prevent many opportunities.

Final Score Prediction: UW-94 FAU-60

As bad as GSU looks, FAU is a much better match-up for the Huskies. Not only is our backcourt anywhere from 4 to 12 inches taller than theirs, our frontcourt also has a huge advantage in size and strength. FAU is similar to UW in that their frontcourt is their weakness and the backcourt is their strength and our strength is much stronger than theirs by any stretch of the imagination. UW should have another dominate victory, but one in which our scoring in the paint will prove to be much more decisive than usual.