After 3 straight road losses, dropping from first to third in the Pac-10, and 18th to 28th in the polls, the Huskies are coming home to Hec Ed to right their ship and get their winning ways back. Cal is coming in with some momentum, losing by 2 to Arizona in triple overtime 107-105. Before the loss they were on a 4 game win streak. Cal is 13-10 on the season, 6-5 in conference.

The Golden Bears are lead in scoring by Harper Kamp at 15.1 points per game. Jorge Guitierrez is second with 13.2 points per game. Two other Cal players are scoring 10+ a game. Allen Crabbe is scoring 12.4 per game. Markhuri Sanders-Frision comes in at 10.8 points per game. All four of these players have increased their scoring averages since the last match up of the two teams. Crabbe increased his points per game by 2, not an easy feat in only 7 games. He has been hot from the field lately and is by far the leading candidate for Freshman of the Year.

• Cal rebounds pretty well. MSF leads Cal with 7.6 boards per game. Kamp is picking up 5.7 and Crabbe is grabbing 5.7 boards per game.
• Cal is averaging 15 assists and 14 turnovers per game. Jorge Guitierrez is leading Cal in both categories with 4.5 assists and 2.8 turnovers per outing.
• Cal runs a 9 to 10 man rotation with 7 players getting 15+ minutes per game and 5 significant point contributors (8+ pts per game)

Frision is an undersized center at 6-7, but he weighs 265lbs. Much like Jon Brockman, Frision is able to get position and use his strength to get the boards. At 7.6 rebounds per game he is a threat MBA and Aziz will have to deal with. His rebounding average has dropped by a little over a half board per game since UW played Cal on the road.

Gutierrez has had to step up his game after Cal lost 4 of their 5 starters and something like 90% of their scoring from last season. He went from 5.5 points to 13.2 by necessity and opportunity. Recently he was switched from point guard to shooting guard as he was unsuccessful at the 1. Brandon Smith has stepped in as the starting point guard. He is much more successful at the 2.

Two players on Cal’s team have made 20 or more 3 pointers this season. Jorge Guitierrez is leading in percentage at 26 of 71. Crabbe has the most makes at 43 of 113 attempts. Gary Franklin would make this list, but transferred to Baylor earlier this season.

Starting Line Ups:

California
G – Brandon Smith – 5-11, 185
G – Jorge Guitierrez – 6-3, 195
F – Allen Crabbe – 6-4, 205
F – Harper Kamp – 6-8, 245
C – Markhuri Sanders-Frision – 6-7, 265

Washington
G – Isaiah Thomas – 5-9, 185
G -Venoy Overton – 6-0, 185
F – Justin Holiday – 6-6, 185
F – Matthew Bryan-Amaning – 6-9, 240
C – Aziz N’Diaye – 7-0, 260

Keys to the Game:

Rebounding: The Huskies have been a much better rebounding team. A lot of this has to do with MBA stepping up his game. Aziz comes and goes a bit, but it starting to edge more towards being a significant rebounder. UW needs to continue this trend in force. It is what kept us in the WSU and UO games despite our poor ball handling and defensive efforts.

Interior Defense: This is why UW has been losing its games more than any other factor. Our interior defense and defense overall has been atrocious. Teams have been having their way with us inside and it needs to change now. We have two strong post players and three of the top defenders in the league in I.T., Holiday, and Overton. Though, admittedly, both Holiday and Venoy have been weaker on defense than they are traditionally known for. For Holiday it is understandable, he is being asked to do more on offense and that means less energy on defense. For Overton, injuries have plagued him this entire season and his mind has not been in the right place for some time. He showed signs of returning to his former glory in the UO game.

Ball Handling: We have to pass well and control the ball. Against WSU we had 24 turnovers, against OSU we had 12, against UO we had 15. We need to stay below 12, preferably around 10. Our assists count needs to be 18 or higher. This starts with Isaiah playing smart basketball, penetrating when it is there and looking elsewhere when it isn’t. I.T. needs help from Holiday, Ross, Suggs, and who ever else plays the wing positions to open the middle and create plays. Our wings don’t move enough to create the shots we should be taking. Quincy Pondexter did a fantastic job of moving on the wings and as such created a lot more shot opportunities for himself and his teammates.

Force the Middle: This falls under the same category as ball handling. Getting the ball into the post is very important. MBA should be taking 15+ shots a game. His accuracy and shot selection has gotten better and he is missing less of the gimme’s. I.T. needs to drive a bit. Overton has the speed and agility to take it to the hoop. This will open up good outside shots that are hopefully open and will go in.

Free Throw Shooting: Normally home games mean more free throws for the home team. This has not been the case for a majority of the UW home games. Regardless of home or away, free throws are very important and need to be hit. They are free. Take ‘um and make ‘um.

Final Thoughts:
It’s time to wake up and step up. Big teams with big players play big in the face of adversity. UA could go 2-3 or 1-4 in their next 5 game. They could also go 5-0, 4-1, or 3-2. They control their own fate atop the Pac. They have a 1.5 game lead on UCLA and a 2 game lead on UW. If we want to get to the top we first have to win and win them all. We beat Cal on the road quite easily. You can bet they want revenge. They are playing well and we have not been. We are at home and have been completely dominate there, but anything is possible. UW will need to bring everything that much is certain.

Final Score Prediction: UW-88 Cal-75
Not sure what to think about this game. We beat them on the road by 21. Our margin of victory at home is nearly 20. We have lost three games in a row by 5, 7, and 12. Anything could happen. I think UW comes out with purpose and drive. With the home crowd behind them, UW should get back to proper basketball play and defensive intensity.

The Huskies came out with a bit more energy than in recent road losses, but ran out of steam late in the first half. Cal went on a run and led by 15 or more during most of the rest of the game. The Huskies made a semi-run late, but it wasn’t nearly enough and the game was never in question.

Recapping this game isn’t really necessary—and frankly, I can’t recap it because I will vomit.  If you didn’t see it, you lucked out. But, if you did catch either of the Huskies’ games in the desert, or the beat-down against USC, then you know what happened in this game because it was a déjà vu Huskies road loss:

1. We don’t play team basketball and take crazy shots while running, spinning, or falling backward.  I think I saw Venoy try to shoot one while dancing. We share the ball at home; we hog the ball on the road. We attack the basket at home; we fade away from it on the road.
2. We don’t play with enthusiasm or aggressiveness on the road. We look terrified.
3. Somebody on the other team has the best game of their career during every road loss. (In this case, it was Randlel, who was nothing short of UNBELIEVABLE.)
4. We start to play well when we look up at the scoreboard and realize we are no longer close enough to win the game.

I want to make sure I say something positive for all you fans that are hurting out there. So here it goes: Matthew Bryan-Amaning played a really good game. Not only was he physical in the post, he actually made some shots and was one of the few Huskies who seemed to play hard every minute he was in the game.

Quincy Pondexter always gives 100% effort and is fearless, but he didn’t have it tonight. The rest of the Huskies played tentative basketball, waiting for someone to bail them out, but nobody did. The following are the negative thoughts in my head right now. I put them in italics for all you “on the ledge” Husky fans. Don’t read the italics if you don’t want to feel even worse than you do right now.

Tyreese Breshers was a non-factor. Justin Holiday laid brick after brick. Scott Suggs was Scott Suggs circa 2008. Isaiah Thomas played well offensively, but played lazy defense. He was completely outplayed by Randle, who scored 33 and is the most impressive player I have seen in the Pac-10 this year, not named Quincy Pondexter. Abdul Gaddy was horrible—this was his worst game: bad decisions offensively, lost on defense, and I hold him personally responsible for the 8-0 Cal run late in the first half. Abdul turned it over, took a wild shot, and lost his man on three consecutive possessions. And THAT run was the one the Huskies never recovered from. Venoy shot well from the line again, but was horrible defensively. Somebody needs to tell him that defense is not entirely about selling out for the steal. He lets up so many easy baskets—it drives me crazy. For every steal he gets, he gives up an uncontested layup, or forces a teammate to help on his guy, leaving someone else open—usually for a three.

After the last four games, I was suckered into believing in these guys again. I really was. I still love this team, but have to vent after these road losses. If I never saw them play at home, I would watch these road games, cheer on our guys and move on. But I have seen this team play at such a high level that I just can’t stomach the way they play during these road games. Ugh!

Well, I guess these are your 2009-2010 Washington “Jekyll-and-Hyde” Huskies: a top twenty team at home and an absolute mess on the road. Which brings me to the really sad part of this post. . .

What does this loss mean?: Most significantly, we lost the Pac-10 regular season title tonight, barring an absolute miracle and a collapse of monumental proportions from Cal (who plays three of their last six games at home). Cal now has a two game lead and there just aren’t enough games left for us to catch them.

Pac-10 Tourney aside, I don’t think that anything short of winning out the regular season schedule (at Stanford, vs. USC, vs. UCLA, at Washington St., at Oregon, and at Oregon St.) is going to be enough to punch us a ticket to the Big Dance.

Do I think we can do it? Maybe. . . but it will begin (and potentially end) at Stanford on Saturday. A road win would go a long way for our confidence, and give us a chance to make a run.

Who:

When: Thursday, 6:00 PM

Where: Haas Pavilion

How to Watch: ESPN2

Huskies 101: UW has won four straight, and six of its last eight games. The margin of victory for the Huskies during that stretch is over 25 points.

This is game #4 of the Huskies’ “Ten and Your In” portion of the season. The task is no easy feat, but it’s nearly impossible to argue that the Huskies wouldn’t earn an NCAA bid — conference champs or not — if they can win the final ten games on their Pac-10 schedule. So far, so good.

The Huskies have not won outside of Hec Ed all season. A pair of wins in the Bay Area would likely change the Huskies’ perception in the national media from “out of the tournament” to “on the bubble.”

Since Cal is in first place at 7-4, and the Huskies are one of five teams in second at 6-5, this game gives the Dawgs the opportunity to earn a share of the conference lead.

Quincy Pondexter has played out of his mind during this four-game winning streak, averaging 25.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2 assists, and shooting 61% from the field.

Projected lineup: G – Abdul Gaddy, G – Isaiah Thomas, F – Justin Holiday, F – Quincy Pondexter, F – Tyreese Breshers

Last time out: The Huskies dominated Cal at Hec Ed, 84-69. Quincy Pondexter has 25, and Isaiah scored 20. Matthew Bryan-Amaning had a quietly efficient game with 10 points, seven rebounds, and a not-so-quiet blocked shot that wound up on Sportscenter.

UW held a 19-point halftime lead and cruised the rest of the way on a day when Cal’s “big three” of Jerome Randle, Theo Robertson, and Patrick Christopher, were simply a “big one.” Christopher scored 28, but no other Bear made an impact on the game

Bears 101: Cal has lost two of their last three, all on the road, and try to keep their hold on first place in the conference.

Jerome Randle (19.1 ppg, 4.7 apg) leads the way for the Bears, who also get double-figure scoring from Patrick Christopher (16.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Theo Robertson (14.2 ppg, 45.5% 3-pt. FG), and Jamal Boykin (11 ppg, 6.2 rpg).

Last time the teams played, guard Jorge Gutierrez, one of the Pac-10′s best defenders, was out. This time, the Dawgs will not be so lucky.

Projected lineup: G – Jerome Randle, G – Jorge Gutierrez, G – Patrick Christopher, F – Theo Robertson, F – Jamal Boykin

The Huskies will win if: The Dawgs will win the game if they can somehow, some way, conjur up the level of energy on the defensive end that they have in spades at home, but never on the road. It’s clear that this is a team driven by turnovers and running off of missed shots. Can they make it happen in Berkeley?

The Dawgs will win if they can get some outside shooting (paging Scott Suggs) and open the game up for Quincy Pondexter to work inside and Isaiah Thomas to penetrate.

The Huskies will lose if: They forget to try to get their big men going. Cal is now starting four players 6’6″ and under and a wily-but-not-tough center, Boykin. MBA was effective last time, and he and Tyreese Breshers should not be left out of the offensive gameplanning.

The Huskies will lose if Cal plays its best game. I hate to say it, but I think we’re at a point with this Husky team that we’ve gotta hope for a little bit of luck. I’ve seen nothing to say we can beat a good team on its home floor unless it has an off night. It’s noble to hope for the Huskies to beat Cal at their best, but I’ll settle for just escaping with a win.

A humble suggestion: Abdul Gaddy has had an up-and-down freshman season, and it’s clear now that he’s going to be a sophomore before we see more progress out of the talented point guard. I’m cool with Gaddy starting, but once Venoy checks in, let’s have Overton and Isaiah handle the point guard duties, leaving more minutes for shooting (Scott Suggs, Elston Turner) or defense (Justin Holiday, Darnell Gant). Personally, I don’t need to see Gaddy late in games anymore during this critical stretch of the season.

Prediction: I want so badly to pick the Huskies that I’m afraid my heart (and my fingers) won’t let me type what I really believe is going to happen.

The way we played against Cal at Hec Ed, we could’ve beaten anyone in the country. But, we haven’t seen those Huskies out on the road all year. The Dawgs will come out pumped, but they’ll be playing a good Cal team that’s only lost once at home all year.

Cal wins a heartbreaker, 83-80. The Huskies pull off the upset and win, 79-73. (See, I couldn’t do it!)

Thanks for coming!

Scroll down for our game story, but here’s some more thoughts and observations on Saturday’s big win:

Not to start off on a negative, but Venoy had zero steals again against Cal… He’s only got two in his last five games, and seems generally less active on the defensive end. Not sure if this is the result of more focus on playing under control or what. But, I miss the peskiness a bit.

Also, Venoy almost got Quincy killed when he overthrew him on an alley-oop that (thankfully) turned out fine, especially since Quincy got the foul call. Quincy’s dad did not look thrilled at the play either — an interesting reminder of how much trust is put in the passer on a play like that to lead his man to the hoop safely.

It’s so easy to take Isaiah for granted — he piles up 18- and 20-point games like they’re nothing — but when he plays defense the way he did this week, there isn’t a better guard in the league.

I don’t mind 29 fouls in a game like this. The Huskies are committing themselves to a “no easy baskets” approach, which I like. They’re working hard, and if it’s going to mean more fouls, fine. I just wish we had another reliable post player so we don’t wind up with Clarence Trent, who’s just not ready yet, on the court at crunchtime of a big game.

That said, the Pac-10 refs have been atrocious so far. One example: Scott Suggs got called for an intentional foul with the team up more than 20 in the second half. Call it a flagrant if you must (which it wasn’t), but when there’s absolutely NO reason for an intentional foul, nor had the game gotten chippy, you can’t call that.

Gaddy and Overton combined Saturday for a nice point guard performance: eight points (four each), eight assists (five for Gaddy, three for Venoy), two turnovers (both by Gaddy).

Matthew Bryan-Amaning had a bit of a bounce-back game with 10 points and seven rebounds. But a lot of his production was against beanpole Max Zhang. I want to see MBA do it against a tough opponent, when the chance to get hit in the post actually exists. I’ll take what I can get from Matthew, but felt like he was taking advantage of a terrible defender more than really changing his game.

The lineup looks set for now, and Coach said he didn’t see any reason to tinker at this point: Gaddy, Isaiah, Holiday, Quincy and Tyreese start. MBA, Suggs and Venoy are the key reserves. And Darnell Gant, Elston Turner and Clarence Trent seem destined to see ten or less minutes per game for the time being unless a specific situation calls for them to see more.

Coach Romar mentioned after the game that he didn’t really think UW matched up well with Cal, and it’s true. Our starting five against their big scorers is a big minefield of defensive mismatches, but today only one of Cal’s big guns ever got going.

This could easily go the other way when we go down to Cal, but if the Huskies play with this much emphasis on defense the rest of the way, they’ll win the conference — no question.

The least you should know:

Very similar start to Thursday night’s game — the Huskies came out and dominated early, taking a 33-12 lead in the first 11 minutes, never looking back, and cruising the rest of the way.

The Huskies had their most complete defensive effort of the season, forcing Cal into 22 turnovers, and holding them to 33% shooting. Cal’s biggest star, Jerome Randle finished with five points and eight turnovers.

Quincy Pondexter scored 21 of his 25 points in the first half, and led the Huskies to a 50-31 halftime lead.

To read the rest of the game post (for free, of course), please click here to go over to UDubSports.com.

I’m also trying to streamline and experiment a little bit too with these previews, so I can spend more time on the stuff readers seem to respond to. Please let me know what you think about the new format, and thanks for coming:

Who: Washington Huskies (2-3, 11-5 overall) vs. Cal Bears (3-1, 11-5 overall)

When: Saturday, 11:30 AM

Where: Hec Ed

Huskies 101: Despite the rough start, it’s not inconceivable to imagine a Husky run, eventually resulting in a 10- or 11-win season. But, it all starts here. This is critical game for the Dawgs, as they try to get back to .500 in the Pac-10 and prove they can beat the conference’s best team.

Quincy Pondexter got back on track Thursday vs. Stanford, scoring 27 points in the 94-61 win.

Justin Holiday is expected to start again for the Huskies after propelling the team to a terrific defensive performance on Thursday.

Projected lineup: G – Abdul Gaddy, G – Isaiah Thomas, F – Justin Holiday, F – Quincy Pondexter, F – Tyreese Breshers

Cal 101: The Bears have won five of their last six, defeating Washington State, 93-88, on Thursday.

The Bears are not as deep as the Huskies, but have four talented seniors. Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, Theo Robertson and Jamal Boykin all have multiple 20 point scoring efforts this season, and average in double figures.

The Bears shoot almost 38% from beyond the arc, while the Huskies shoot just 30.5%.

Player-of-the-Year candidate Randle is coming off his career-high in points – he scored 39 in Cal’s victory at Wazzu.

Projected lineup: G – Jerome Randle, G – Patrick Christopher, F – Omondi Amoke, F – Theo Robertson, F – Jamal Boykin

The Huskies will win if: They play with the same intensity on the defensive end that we saw against Stanford.

We’ll win if they hit the boards and prevent big man Jamal Boykin from allowing Cal to engage in a truly inside-out offense.

We’ll win if they successfully employ Venoy Overton to keep Jerome Randle in check. This could be the game’s critical matchup, and a chance for Venoy to earn his spot on the all-defensive team.

The Huskies will lose if: They play sloppily with the ball. Against a talented team like Cal, there’s not going to be enough leeway to have wasted possessions. The Dawgs must be efficient and exacting in their execution.

We’ll lose if our big men continue to play like dogs. I don’t think this is a contest that can be won without someone on the inside stepping up. Cal is too good a one-dimensional Husky attack to be successful.

A humble suggestion: Tyreese Breshers can’t defend without fouling, nor is he looking super adept offensively; Clarence Trent is not ready; and Darnell Gant doesn’t make enough of an impact. Give Matthew Bryan-Amaning his starting job back, and just accept what he doesn’t do well. No one – fans, media, coaches, even teammates – seems very happy with the production the Huskies have gotten out of MBA so far, but it’s time to start focusing on what we have in MBA, rather than what we don’t. There simply isn’t a better option in the post right now.

Predictions: The way I see it, there’s two questions to answer when scouting this game:

1.  Which Husky team will show up? Thursday’s top-25 level squad, or the Huskies that showed up in Arizona?

I’m willing to bet we get the good Huskies against Cal. Guys play their whole lives for big games like this, and I don’t see effort being the problem Saturday. But the more pressing question is:

2.  Are the Huskies, at their best, capable of beating this experienced Cal team that’s shown they can win on the road?

This is the one I have trouble with. Texas Tech, Georgetown, A&M, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State are the six best teams the Dawgs have played this season, and we’re 1-5 in those games (0-5 in the ones that didn’t involve a freak, horrific accident to an opposing player).

My heart says the Huskies will play with the heart they showed against Stanford. But my head is saying, da’ Bears. Sadly, I’m picking Cal in this one, 84-79.

If Breshers can be that big presence and give us 15 minutes (or more) of toughness per game, I believe our frontcourt can go from being the team’s weakness to, at least, an area of less exposure.

I caught up with Tyreese for a quick chat this afternoon and he was kind of enough to answer a few questions. Here’s some of our discussion:

MontlakeMadness: How’s the health? Are you back into playing shape?

Tyreese Breshers: My health is good, but at this point I’m not quite back in playing shape. But, I am on the road to getting back into shape.

MM: Glad to hear you’re heading in the right direction. A lot of fans are hoping you’ll be able to contribute to filling the hole left by Jon Brockman. How would you compare your game to his, style-wise?

TB: I can say, physically, I am just as strong as him and I’m good around the basket… And, like him, I like to rebound.

MM: Fantastic. Is the whole team working out together yet? Or are guys still away doing their own things for the summer?

TB: Yeah, we all have been working out together a couple months now.

MM: Nice. Anyone who’s been particularly impressive as far as improvement from last season to now?

TB: Honestly, I can see an improvement in everybody, and I’m not just saying that ’cause it sounds good.

MM: From a fan’s perspective, that’s great to hear. How do you guys handle the idea of competing for minutes on such a deep team alongside the idea of keeping team morale and unity high? Do the coaches encourage competition, or try to keep questions like ‘who’s going to start?’ out of the discussion?

TB: I think that team being so deep is only going to bring out the best in everybody, because we all know that the best players will play.

MM: Other than the Huskies, which team in the Pac-10 is the toughest?

TB: Well we aren’t going to take anybody lightly, but I would say Cal because they beat us twice and they are returning their top 3 guys.

MM: I agree with you. On paper, you guys look so much stronger, but they brought their best last season when they played UW. Tyreese, thanks for your time, man. Before you go, can you tell the fans something they don’t yet know about Tyreese Breshers?

TB: The team calls me “Chuck,” for Charles Barkley.

MM: That’s a very intriguing notion, Tyreese. Thanks so much for your time. I look forward to catching up as the season gets closer.

TB: Anytime.

Thanks for coming!