Alex Tuttle

Staff Writer Alex Tuttle takes a look at who’s leaving the Pac-10, and who’s coming, for the 2010/2011 season. Alex also takes an early shot at ranking the 10 teams going into next year.

Sure, it’s a little early, but here at Montlake Madness we’re already counting the days. (In case you were wondering, if the Huskies play their first game on the same day next season, we’re just a mere 216 days away from tip-off. The fact that I (Themod) will be a father by then is freakier than I can convey in a short intro.

What to expect: The emergence of Justin Holiday and Matthew Bryan-Amaning down the stretch in 2010 means that the bulk of the Dawgs’ rotation will be filled with solid, experienced upperclassmen in 2011. If a few things go right (the team gels quickly in the Maui tournament, Abdul Gaddy makes big off-season improvements, help comes on the recruiting recruiting front), UW may be able to turn their attention to even bigger aspirations than this year’s oh-so-Sweet 16 finish.

What to expect: The Wildcats look like the team most ready to take the leap next season. Nic Wise is a huge loss for Arizona, which hasn’t recruited particularly well in the backcourt. (cue chant: Who’s your Gaddy?) But Olson/O’Neill/Pennell/Miller have recruited a lot of size, and if forward Derrick Williams eschews the NBA for a year, the Wildcats will present difficult matchup problems for a small conference next season.

What to expect: The USC team I saw this season was a long, athletic, talented squad that can afford a couple of losses to graduation. Immediately after the sanctions were announced, Kevin O’Neill’s team hit a big skid. But before that, and then again toward the end of the season, the Trojans looked like they could compete for the Pac-10 title. Certainly there are two big pairs of shoes to fill with the loses of Gerrity and Lewis, but in comparison to the rest of the conference, the Trojans will be relatively experienced. Plus, 2011 will be their second season in O’Neill’s system.

What to expect: The surprise darlings of the 2010 Pac-10 season won’t be so fortunate in 2011. Yes, the Sun Devils have a top-notch coach and some returning talent, but they have lost four quality players to graduation and the NBA in two years. At some point those losses will catch up with them. Meanwhile, the rest of the conference is growing up. That’s not to say ASU can’t possibly make an NCAA tournament appearance, but they are under-talented compared to the top four teams in the conference.

What to expect: Picking the bottom half in this conference next year is not easy. But coach Mike Montgomery usually finds a way to get more out of his teams than most coaches, and he has a strong incoming recruiting class to offset their heavy losses to graduation (the Bears only returning rotation player is G Jorge Gutierrez). I bet Monty will keep the Bears respectable while they rebuild.

What to expect: The Cougars will probably be the trendy media pick for making a move up in the conference next year (how’d that work for Oregon State in 2009/10?) and with the quality of some of their returning players (DeAngelo Casto, Klay Thompson), that may be justified. But making the transition from Tony Bennett’s style of basketball to Ken Bone’s is going to take more than one season. WSU has no choice but to replace their outgoing transfers with more youth and inexperience. Next season will be a nice step up from the cellar, but the Cougs are at least another year from returning to the bubble discussion.

What to expect: The Beavers have made huge strides under coach Craig Robinson, but they still lack the overall depth of talent on the roster necessary to compete every week in the Pac-10. Losing Tarver and Schaftenaar means another year of rebuilding, unless true freshman Devon Collier and sophomore Roberto Nelson come along really quickly.

What to expect: Landry Fields was statistically the best player in the Pac-10 in 2010, and his graduation is crushing for a team that was already lacking talent in its surrounding role players. The Cardinal’s recruiting class is deep, but lacks the impact players that could help them climb up the standings immediately.

Staff writer Alex Tuttle takes a look at Saturday’s game against New Mexico. I think it’s safe to say that this is one of the more important games of the Lorenzo Romar era at UW. What’s more, a win against the Lobos sets up a chance to advance further than the Huskies have since Tippy Dye took the 1953 Dawgs to the Final Four.

by Alex Tuttle – Staff Writer

Who: Washington Huskies (25-9, 11-7 Pac-10) vs New Mexico Lobos (30-4, 14-2 Moutain West, #8 AP, #10 ESPN/Coaches)

When: Saturday, March 20, 2010, 2:50 PM PDT

Where: San Jose, CA

TV/Radio: CBS/KJR 950 AM

Breaking down the Lobos: In their first-round match-up, the third-seeded Lobos knocked off the 14 seed Montana Grizzlies for their first NCAA tournament victory since 1999.  It was an ugly affair for the Lobos, who trailed at halftime, and found themselves in a one-possession game with under a minute to go.

And, in a late-game plot twist, Lobos’ leading scorer Darrington Hobson injured his left wrist and was left questionable for Saturday. An X-ray this morning, though, revealed no break and Hobson is expected to play.

Last night aside, the Lobos have experienced tremendous success this season.  They rolled through the Mountain West conference behind an explosive offense (Ken Pomeroy’s ratings rank the Lobos as the 24th most efficient offense in the nation), and beat Texas A&M and Cal in non-conference play.  To win, the Huskies will need to finish what they started last night and find a way to defend a team with multiple offensive weapons.

The Lobos are long and athletic (only one starter shorter than 6’5″), the type of team that can be a difficult matchup for anyone.  Six players receive the bulk of the Lobos’ minutes, but they have gone eight or nine deep at times this season, not unlike the Dawgs.

Starters & rotation:

Darrington Hobson (6’7″ junior swingman) is the Lobos leading scorer and best player, as well as the media darling of ESPN’s robotic name-memorizer Jay Bilas.  Hobson fills up the stat sheet, averaging 16.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.2 steals, and shoots 35.8% from behind the arc in over 33 minutes per game.

To beat New Mexico, UW must hold Hobson in check.  In the Lobos’ loss to San Diego State in January, Hobson shot 4-17 and finished with 12 points.  In their loss at Oral Roberts, Hobson was 5-14 with 11 points and 5 turnovers.  And when they lost to UNLV, Hobson was held to 14 points on 5-8 shooting.  You get the picture.  If his wrist injury has him playing at anything less than 100% tomorrow night, it could impact the game.

Dairese Gary (6’1″ junior point guard) is the Lobos’ floor general, capable of scoring (12.8 ppg), and also dangerous from behind the arc (career 38.0%).  He averages a steal and 3.9 assists.  Gary has saved his best for last, scoring 19 points per game over their last six.  As the Lobos’ shortest starter, this important defensive assignment will likely fall to Venoy Overton.

Phillip McDonald (6’5″ sophomore guard) is primarily a three-point weapon who helps to stretch an opponent’s defense.  Averaging 10.6 points, McDonald has made 71 treys this year (career 38.6%), and has put up games of 27 and 25 points this year.  But he seems to disappear against stronger competition.  It took him 12 attempts from three to score 15 points against Cal in December, and he scored 10 or less in wins over Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UNLV, and San Diego State (twice).

A.J. Hardeman (6’8 soph. forward) is an efficient interior presence. Although he averages just 7.1 points, Hardeman shoots nearly 54% from the field (but only 48.9% from the line) in anout 22 minutes per game.  He can also be an imposing force defender and rebounder, averaging 1.3 blocks and 5.5 boards.

Roman Martinez (6’6″ senior forward) is a classic wing player who cannot be left open from outside.  He shoots 41.6% from deep, averaging 14 points for the Lobos in just over 30 minutes.  He also grabs 1.5 steals.  He played all 40 minutes against Montana last night, notching 19 points. My guess is that this assignment belongs to Justin Holiday.

Will Brown (6’8″ sophomore forward) is a banger who gives the Lobos an interior presence off the bench.  In just 18 minutes per game, Brown is good for 4.3 points and 3.5 boards.  He also blocked 31 shots and amassed 90 fouls (a Breshers-ian rate of one every six minutes) this season.

The rest of the rotation is primarily a stable of younger guards who come off the bench sporadically and provide more mixed results.  Sophomore guard Nate Garth might be someone to worry about, as he shoots 35% from three in 15 minutes per game this season.  But he has played just 34 minutes and scored just four points since the regular season ended two weeks ago. Freshman guard Jamal Fenton also sees minutes off the bench (11.7 mpg) as an aggressive defender (1.3 fouls, 0.6 steals).

Strengths: When the Lobos are going well, they’re making threes, keeping opponents off the glass, and taking care of the basketball.

As a team, the Lobos shoot 37.1% from behind the arc, with several individual threats that may play together on the floor simultaneously.  The Dawgs were able to neutralize Marquette’s three-point shooting in the second half of their first game, but the Lobos will have more inside presence to work with.

The Lobos’ offensive turnover percentage is good for tenth in the nation (16.2%).  Even in their four losses, the Lobos “only” turned it over a combined 43 times.  And they box out on defense, surrendering the 9th lowest offensive rebounding percentage in the country.

But what stands out about the Lobos most is their balance and versatility, as only one of their primary six rotation players is under 6’5″.  And they can add Brown off the bench to go with Hardeman and two tall wings.  Or they can go heavy on guards.  With Gary, McDonald, and Martinez all on the floor together, they can sub in Garth or Fenton to stretch the defense and add a spark off the bench.

Weaknesses: It’s tough to find many weaknesses in this New Mexico squad since they haven’t lost very many times this season.  But hiding in that sterling thirty-win record are a lot of mediocre victories over marginal opponents.  Seventeen of their victories came over teams outside the RPI top 120.  They have a good (but not amazing) 13-4 record against everyone else.

The Lobos can also be streaky shooters, they rank just 86th in the nation in effective field goal percentage, despite all of their shooters.  Teams that live by the three can also die by it.

And they don’t hit the offensive glass with authority (#72 in the nation), meaning that the Dawgs could have opportunities to get out in transition and set the pace if they can win the battle on the boards.

One thing that startled me when examining New Mexico was their overall size and length (reminiscent of USC).  But, upon closer inspection, the Lobos are nothing like the Trojans defensively.  They may be long, but the Lobos allow an effective field goal percentage of 49.3%, ranking 180th nationally.  By contrast, USC ranked 5th in the nation (43.2%).

And the Lobos do not force many turnovers on defense, which may play into the hands of UW’s guards. Their forced turnover percentage ranks just 158th in division one.

Huskies’ keys to victory:

Tempo: As we saw against Marquette (and Cal), when the Dawgs can set the pace, force teams into taking quick and/or poor shots, grab rebounds and get out in transition, they can beat high-quality opponents.  It’ll be no different against New Mexico.  The Lobos don’t play particularly fast normally, and any team that gets into an up-and-down battle with the Huskies will have a tough time keeping up.

Perimeter Defense: In March, a hot shooting team can be damn near impossible to stop.  UW got the tournament off to a good start by largely minimizing Marquette’s outside shooters on Thursday. They’ll have to continue to defend outside and get a hand in the face of nearby Lobos.

Win the Turnover Battle: New Mexico isn’t as pesky on defense as they are just solid.  They aren’t the ideal team to exploit our propensity for dumb turnovers, but they do protect the basketball.  This will be a clear test of strengths, since the Huskies would like to force turnovers themselves, and have been sloppy at times with the ball this season. Whichever team does a better job containing the other’s strength in this area will have the edge.

Get Tough: Does anyone remember that startling high screen that Louisville set against UW in the Sweet 16 five years ago? That pick set the tone for that game, as Louisville continued to push the Dawgs around all night. This season, we’ve seen our guys struggle when things got physical (against USC, Oregon at home, etc).

Lately, we’ve been the tougher team, playing through pain, taking the ball up strong to the hoop, buckling down on defense in the middle of games, and grinding out victories in crunchtime.  But with the size of the Lobos, it will be imperative for the Dawgs to come out swinging and set the tone themselves. We should expect Hobson to play a full game on Saturday, but a hard (clean) foul on him early on wouldn’t hurt — to show him who’s boss and set the tone.

Fearless prediction: UW’s draw looked a lot better before I took a closer look at the Lobos.  But then again, this Husky team looked a lot worse against Stanford three games ago than they did last night.  And New Mexico looked like a team happy to win a game in the tournament for the first time in 11 years, not like they were ready to win a second. I’m picking Washington, 81-78.

Associated Press

Here’s another guest piece, taking another look at last night’s semifinal win against Stanford in the Pac-10 Tournament. Thanks, Alex!

by Alex Tuttle

After a lackluster start to Thursday’s game vs. the Beavers, it was reassuring to see the “good” Dawgs come out to play against the Cardinal and put this one out of reach early on.  That said, the Dawgs left a lot of points on the board by missing layups and other easy shots in the early going.  Making a few more of those would have buried the Cardinal for good much earlier.

Let’s just get right to it: Although Matthew Bryan-Amaning’s dunk over Andrew Zimmerman was rated the 5th “Top Play” on SportsCenter, I wonder if it wasn’t actually one of the more dominant dunks we’ve seen in all of college basketball this season.  MBA absolutely crotch-shotted him.

Peaking at the right time: For all the talk about what it would take to make the tournament, seemingly lost in the discussion is the fact that the Dawgs have been playing their best basketball of the season over the last month and a half.  In fact, UW has now won 11 of their last 13 games, dating back to the LA road trip.  And if they beat Cal, their record away from
home will even out to 7-7.  Crazy how things can change in such a short time.

Fun to be a “Bubble Team”?: I wonder if it isn’t more fun to be on the bubble (albeit more terrifying as well).  Would we care that Georgia Tech beat Maryland, or whether Georgetown could get past Marquette?  Put simply, life on the bubble can be exhilarating and terrifying at the same time.  I
wouldn’t want to be here every year, but it sure as hell beats what was happening on Montlake a decade ago. . .

You gotta believe we’re in: It’s hard to believe that with this win, the Dawgs haven’t clinched a spot in the Big Dance.  Forget what the media is saying about the Pac-10 being a one-bid conference. . . no team with eleven Pac-10 wins in the regular season has ever failed to get an at-large invitation to the Big Dance (since the tournament last expanded to 64 teams).  Arizona State, on the other hand, is probably not feeling quite as comfortable.

Nightmare draw: Does any 5th, 6th, 7th, or 8th seeded-team in the NCAAs want to play these Huskies right now?  If this team gets lucky and gets placed in Spokane, they could be a dangerous Cinderella….

Big Shot Zeke: With all that said, things aren’t perfect.  For instance, how bad does this team need a consistent 3-point shooter?  Isaiah Thomas has become the team’s one big-balls outside shooter, always unafraid to take a
big shot.  But if he’s not on, the Dawgs’ postseason hopes could end at any time.

Streaky play: Also, this team still seems to struggle to put together forty complete minutes of basketball.  From this point on, the Dawgs will have to remain focused.  Sloppy turnovers and transition defense can be tolerated against Stanford, but not against the NCAA Tournament field.

Feels more like home?: Finally, the Dawgs seem to be more comfortable on a neutral court than on the road.  Maybe it’s the fact that the refs don’t call the game the same way they do on someone else’s home court, but it felt like the Huskies’ physicality tonight was more of an asset than it has been on the road this season.

Batten down the hatches: Saturday’s game against the Golden Bears is exactly the matchup we wanted, Dawg fans!  One final chance to land a knockout punch on the team that took our Pac-10 title.  Let’s hope the Dawgs come out swinging early and watch Selection Sunday from their recliners and not the edge of their seats. . .

Thanks for coming!

Thanks, Alex!