Quick Wednesday Polls

I think with how weak the Pac-10 is, the Huskies need to win both the Georgetown game and the A&M game to earn a 4 or 5 seed. Last year the team’s only “resume” non conference win was the Oklahoma St win, but the strength of the conference (ranked 5th in the RPI) was good enough to get the Huskies a 4 seed. This year, with the conference ranked 9th in the RPI (behind the A10, CUSA, and MWC) so the best way for UW to earn its seed is by winning in non-conference.

I think if UW only wins the A&M game, they get a 6-7 seed depending on the Pac-10 record. If they win neither, they get a 8 or 9 seed. Remember, Creighton was the best team in the MVC last year (the #9 RPI conference) and ended up in the NIT. BYU was the best team in the MWC (the 7th best conference) and ended up with an 8 seed.

I agree if the Pac-10 gets 4 or 5 teams into the tourney and UW wins the Pac-10, then a split with G’Town and A&M should be good for a 4 or 5 seed. But, I just don’t see how that’s likely with the remaining non-conference games on the schedule:

Stanford has the best chance to improve their stature with upcoming games vs #36 OK St. and at #28 Northwestern and #15 Texas Tech. Win the OKST game, one of the two road games and do well in conference to avoid being a bubble team.

Arizona can also help themselves with games coming up hosting #10 NC. State, #85 BYU and at #42 San Diego St. They probably need to win two of these games and do well in conference to feel safe about a tourney bid.

Cal really needs to beat Kansas on Dec 22, but that’s not too likely. Still, they should be in as long as they take care of business in conference.

ASU – Hosts San Diego St. Needs to finish top 3 in the Pac to make it in.
WSU – Hosts #72 LSU. Also needs to finish top 3 to make it in.
ORE – Hosts #48 St. Mary’s. Probably needs to finish top 2 to make it in.
OSU – Doesn’t play another Top100 RPI team besides UW or Cal.
USC – Hosts #31 Tennessee. Win that game and finish top 3 to get in.
UCLA – Hosts #54 Mississippi St. and goes to #51 Notre Dame, but who are we kidding…this team is toast. Probably needs to win the league tournament to get into the NCAAs.

So, by my count, the league should get at least 3 at-large bids: UW, Cal, and possibly Stanford, ASU, UA, or WSU. If someone else wins the league tourney, that’s 4 bids. There’s still time for the league to bring the number of at large bids to 4, but I think it’s unlikely. Call me a pessimist, but I don’t see Stanford winning any of those significant non conference games. Arizona has a shot at an at-large if they win their OOC games, but my money would be on either ASU or WSU at this point being the third team.

I do know this: the parity in the middle of the conference will make for a crazy Pac-10 season, especially since a top 5 finish is the only way a team will be taken seriously for a tournament bid.

The Pac-10 should be good enough to have 2-3 NIT teams this year though. In the end, I think every team save the bottom feeder will play in the post season.