Comments on: Plus/Minus Stats from Cal State Northridge Game http://www.montlakemadness.com/plusminus-stats-from-cal-state-northridge-game/ The Fan Site for UW Husky Basketball Fri, 10 Feb 2012 22:40:46 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: uwhoop http://www.montlakemadness.com/plusminus-stats-from-cal-state-northridge-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2083 uwhoop Tue, 08 Dec 2009 22:21:16 +0000 http://www.montlakemadness.com/?p=2637#comment-2083 Using the adjusted +/- stat would be a lot more useful. Simply having the raw data is, I think, a bit misleading. For example, if there were one player who played the entire game without being substituted, yet his team lost by 2 points at the end, he would have a -2 rating. However if his teammate played only the last 5 minutes of a game and was present when the team went on a big run to make the game close, he might end up with a +12 or something, even if he finished with 2 points while the player who played the whole game finished with 35. However, because college basketball players play so few games compared to NBA players it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to try to calculate adjusted +/- for the sport. Even accurately calculating scores for the NBA takes data from multiple seasons into account. Using the adjusted +/- stat would be a lot more useful. Simply having the raw data is, I think, a bit misleading. For example, if there were one player who played the entire game without being substituted, yet his team lost by 2 points at the end, he would have a -2 rating. However if his teammate played only the last 5 minutes of a game and was present when the team went on a big run to make the game close, he might end up with a +12 or something, even if he finished with 2 points while the player who played the whole game finished with 35.

However, because college basketball players play so few games compared to NBA players it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to try to calculate adjusted +/- for the sport. Even accurately calculating scores for the NBA takes data from multiple seasons into account.

]]> By: Themod http://www.montlakemadness.com/plusminus-stats-from-cal-state-northridge-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2075 Themod Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:26:09 +0000 http://www.montlakemadness.com/?p=2637#comment-2075 The numbers <em>do </em>reflect the Huskies' performance with a player on the court (+25 means the team was 25 points better than CSUN with that player on the court). There's a reason, though, that pro teams use "adjusted plus/minus," which tells a more complete story. I'm working on my own understanding of the adjusted stat, and seeing if we can work it into Montlake Madness. Sorry I don't have a better explanation for now... I love the stats -- always have -- but am far from an expert at this point. Thanks, Josh The numbers do reflect the Huskies’ performance with a player on the court (+25 means the team was 25 points better than CSUN with that player on the court). There’s a reason, though, that pro teams use “adjusted plus/minus,” which tells a more complete story. I’m working on my own understanding of the adjusted stat, and seeing if we can work it into Montlake Madness.

Sorry I don’t have a better explanation for now… I love the stats — always have — but am far from an expert at this point.

Thanks,
Josh

]]> By: quack http://www.montlakemadness.com/plusminus-stats-from-cal-state-northridge-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2069 quack Tue, 08 Dec 2009 09:46:42 +0000 http://www.montlakemadness.com/?p=2637#comment-2069 i agree with magglio... is this the amount the huskies were up or down by for the time each player was on the court? i agree with magglio… is this the amount the huskies were up or down by for the time each player was on the court?

]]> By: Magglio http://www.montlakemadness.com/plusminus-stats-from-cal-state-northridge-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2067 Magglio Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:58:11 +0000 http://www.montlakemadness.com/?p=2637#comment-2067 im confused. can you explain what these stats tell us again? im confused. can you explain what these stats tell us again?

]]> By: A-Dub http://www.montlakemadness.com/plusminus-stats-from-cal-state-northridge-game/comment-page-1/#comment-2066 A-Dub Tue, 08 Dec 2009 04:51:45 +0000 http://www.montlakemadness.com/?p=2637#comment-2066 Josh, First off, I want to say that I love your blog, and I really like that you're attempting some more in-depth statistical analysis. It looks like the plus/minus is becoming a recurring feature. In the spirit of helping you improve your product, I have a piece of constructive criticism. The claim that a +12 rating for the last game is average is misleading. The true average is "+12 pts per 40 min played." The "expected" plus/minus for any given player should be the score differential (+12 in this case) times the fraction of the game played by that player. Josh,

First off, I want to say that I love your blog, and I really like that you’re attempting some more in-depth statistical analysis. It looks like the plus/minus is becoming a recurring feature. In the spirit of helping you improve your product, I have a piece of constructive criticism. The claim that a +12 rating for the last game is average is misleading. The true average is “+12 pts per 40 min played.” The “expected” plus/minus for any given player should be the score differential (+12 in this case) times the fraction of the game played by that player.

]]>