Staff Writer Alex Tuttle takes a look at who’s leaving the Pac-10, and who’s coming, for the 2010/2011 season. Alex also takes an early shot at ranking the 10 teams going into next year.
Sure, it’s a little early, but here at Montlake Madness we’re already counting the days. (In case you were wondering, if the Huskies play their first game on the same day next season, we’re just a mere 216 days away from tip-off. The fact that I (Themod) will be a father by then is freakier than I can convey in a short intro.
by Alex Tuttle - Staff Writer
(1) Washington
What to expect: The emergence of Justin Holiday and Matthew Bryan-Amaning down the stretch in 2010 means that the bulk of the Dawgs’ rotation will be filled with solid, experienced upperclassmen in 2011. If a few things go right (the team gels quickly in the Maui tournament, Abdul Gaddy makes big off-season improvements, help comes on the recruiting recruiting front), UW may be able to turn their attention to even bigger aspirations than this year’s oh-so-Sweet 16 finish.
(2) Arizona
What to expect: The Wildcats look like the team most ready to take the leap next season. Nic Wise is a huge loss for Arizona, which hasn’t recruited particularly well in the backcourt. (cue chant: Who’s your Gaddy?) But Olson/O’Neill/Pennell/Miller have recruited a lot of size, and if forward Derrick Williams eschews the NBA for a year, the Wildcats will present difficult matchup problems for a small conference next season.
(3) U$C
What to expect: The USC team I saw this season was a long, athletic, talented squad that can afford a couple of losses to graduation. Immediately after the sanctions were announced, Kevin O’Neill’s team hit a big skid. But before that, and then again toward the end of the season, the Trojans looked like they could compete for the Pac-10 title. Certainly there are two big pairs of shoes to fill with the loses of Gerrity and Lewis, but in comparison to the rest of the conference, the Trojans will be relatively experienced. Plus, 2011 will be their second season in O’Neill’s system.
(4) UCLA
What to expect: The Bruins will be a new team in 2010-11, with a lot of new faces. Reeves Nelson, Malcom Lee, and Tyler Honeycutt form a new core around which coach Ben Howland can build. But no matter how talented their newcomers may be, the Bruins will need to eventually get back to their suffocating man-to-man defense to have any chance at the conference title. And incoming JC transfer Lazeric Jones will need to learn quickly for the Bruin backcourt to get back to where it needs to be. Enjoy your four months of Josh Smith, Bruin fans.
(5) Arizona State
What to expect: The surprise darlings of the 2010 Pac-10 season won’t be so fortunate in 2011. Yes, the Sun Devils have a top-notch coach and some returning talent, but they have lost four quality players to graduation and the NBA in two years. At some point those losses will catch up with them. Meanwhile, the rest of the conference is growing up. That’s not to say ASU can’t possibly make an NCAA tournament appearance, but they are under-talented compared to the top four teams in the conference.
(6) California
What to expect: Picking the bottom half in this conference next year is not easy. But coach Mike Montgomery usually finds a way to get more out of his teams than most coaches, and he has a strong incoming recruiting class to offset their heavy losses to graduation (the Bears only returning rotation player is G Jorge Gutierrez). I bet Monty will keep the Bears respectable while they rebuild.
(7) Washington State
What to expect: The Cougars will probably be the trendy media pick for making a move up in the conference next year (how’d that work for Oregon State in 2009/10?) and with the quality of some of their returning players (DeAngelo Casto, Klay Thompson), that may be justified. But making the transition from Tony Bennett’s style of basketball to Ken Bone’s is going to take more than one season. WSU has no choice but to replace their outgoing transfers with more youth and inexperience. Next season will be a nice step up from the cellar, but the Cougs are at least another year from returning to the bubble discussion.
(8) Oregon State
What to expect: The Beavers have made huge strides under coach Craig Robinson, but they still lack the overall depth of talent on the roster necessary to compete every week in the Pac-10. Losing Tarver and Schaftenaar means another year of rebuilding, unless true freshman Devon Collier and sophomore Roberto Nelson come along really quickly.
(9) Stanford
What to expect: Landry Fields was statistically the best player in the Pac-10 in 2010, and his graduation is crushing for a team that was already lacking talent in its surrounding role players. The Cardinal’s recruiting class is deep, but lacks the impact players that could help them climb up the standings immediately.
(10) Oregon
What to expect: There really isn’t any way to know until the Ducks name a coach. Oregon will return a lot of players in 2011, including a few with real talent, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them as high as sixth after it’s all said and done. But this team didn’t exactly rally around Ernie Kent, so it’s tough to predict that they will gel quickly in a brand new system in 2011.
Thanks for coming!
Tags: Alex Tuttle
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Hey Alex,
I thought Polee hadn’t decided on a school, but I see that you have him down as going to USC. I looked on his profile on espn.com (http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recruiting/tracker/player?recruitId=44013&season=2010) and they still have him as undeclared as well. Did you hear he had declared for USC or was it a typo?
Thanks
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USC needs to find someone who can put the ball in the basket before I’d be comfortable with them in the top 5.
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Great piece Alex. Please do another one after spring signing and the NBA Draft Deadline. Here are some corrections that you may appreciate and I don’t mean to minimize all of the great research that you must have done here.
USC: Polee is not signed and doesn’t have USC in his top favorites. We are hearing that he is leaning to UNLV or UNM.
ASU: Rohde and Thompson are gone too.
Oregon: Joevan Catron was a senior and played this past year. The rumor is that he stands a very good chance of getting a medical red-shirt, but nothing official has been stated on the matter to confirm that.
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USC has a pretty decent recruiting class coming in. I think they’re still a borderline top-5 team (3-6 range imo) because of what they’re bringing back and who they’re getting:
PG – Maurice “Pookie” Jones is a midget (5’6) pure point guard who should help a lot in that area for them. Could be exposed guarding bigger Pac-10 guards though. He’s a tough kid from Michigan who can also score. (He put up 49 against MichSt bound Keith Appling’s defending state champion Detroit Pershing team in a loss in December and was the best player on the floor)
SF – Bryce Jones is another one of those NBA-type USC athletes “The 6-5 Jones has a NBA body and explosion. Former NBA standout and Atlanta Hawks assistant Larry Drew told [Jones' coach] that Jones has better explosion than many NBA guys now. …”
Plus a couple other solid players in Portland’s Garret Jackson (6-6 195 SF 3-star) and a 6-9 215lb C from Kentucky named Curtis Washington.
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Total tangent here, but I have been tossing and turning over this all weekend:
Calipari is currently going after three highly touted PF’s: CJ Leslie, Terrence Jones, and a new target, Marcus Thorton.
What kind of message is Cal sending to his recruits as he is offerring a schollie to three guys that will be competing for the same spot? I realize he needs depth for his thin lineup, but how can a recruit justify going to play for a guy that is really not fully vested in your talents? It’s like fishing with three fishing poles to see which one bites first.
Quite frankly, Jones ought to be enamored with Romar as he is recruiting Jones…. and only Jones… for that PF spot.
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Re: Polee… Scout has him as committed to USC. To keep things simple, I just relied on one site for consistency. I am definitely not the last word on PSAs.
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Cassino – You may be right, but I could say the same thing about ASU and fUCLA. Plus, I didn’t want to totally rip off your predictions
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I agree that the bottom half (heck, 3-10) of the league are hard to predict this year.
I’d be really surprised to see the golden bears at #6. Maybe they’ll find a way, but the talent they have is no better than 7th.
Oregon should finish way better than 10th. Too bad they don’t have a coach, because I think they have the talent to finish in the top half.
Stanford on paper looks pretty thin, but they do bring back a number of experienced players and those teams tend to do better than you’d expect.
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Scout is wrong, as they are often about west coast kids that are not on UCLA’s radar. Polee is down to UTEP, Georgia and UNLV, per an update with Dwayne today in Rivals.
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unconfirmed reports are coming in about Aziz N’Diaye possibly comitting to the Dawgs from Scout.com. Cross your fingers peeps.
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Thanks for the head’s up Craiger.
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Heres the preliminary teaser story. Still waiting on final confirmation from Aziz or his coach, but all signs point to a commitment so far:
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Very good news for us. Our fast break will be awesome.
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In many ways this coming year will be like last year. The best players on the really good teams are graduating. In 2009/2010, this meant that UCLA, WSU and Arizona crashed. OSU did not do as well as I expected (although they still improved) while ASU did a great job and UW came together just in time. This next year will again be a challenge, as the Dawgs lose their best player. Fortunately, unlike like year, they won’t lose their second best player. I’m not sure if Arizona will do as well as predicted. They have a very young team, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they get good, but too late to make the tournament. It wouldn’t surprise me if UCLA does at least as well as predicted, I really don’t think they are losing much talent, just a lot of players (I was amazed at how well they did this year).
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In many ways this coming year will be like last year. The best players on the really good teams are graduating. In 2009/2010, this meant that UCLA, WSU and Arizona crashed. OSU did not do as well as I expected (although they still improved) while ASU did a great job and UW came together just in time. This next year will again be a challenge, as the Dawgs lose their best player. Fortunately, unlike like year, they won’t lose their second best player. I’m not sure if Arizona will do as well as predicted. They have a very young team, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they get good, but too late to make the tournament. It wouldn’t surprise me if UCLA does at least as well as predicted, I really don’t think they are losing much talent, just a lot of players (I was amazed at how well they did this year).
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