Who: Washington Huskies (6-5, 16-7 overall) at Cal Bears (7-4, 15-8 overall)
When: Thursday, 6:00 PM
Where: Haas Pavilion
How to Watch: ESPN2
Huskies 101: UW has won four straight, and six of its last eight games. The margin of victory for the Huskies during that stretch is over 25 points.
This is game #4 of the Huskies’ “Ten and Your In” portion of the season. The task is no easy feat, but it’s nearly impossible to argue that the Huskies wouldn’t earn an NCAA bid — conference champs or not — if they can win the final ten games on their Pac-10 schedule. So far, so good.
The Huskies have not won outside of Hec Ed all season. A pair of wins in the Bay Area would likely change the Huskies’ perception in the national media from “out of the tournament” to “on the bubble.”
Since Cal is in first place at 7-4, and the Huskies are one of five teams in second at 6-5, this game gives the Dawgs the opportunity to earn a share of the conference lead.
Quincy Pondexter has played out of his mind during this four-game winning streak, averaging 25.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2 assists, and shooting 61% from the field.
Projected lineup: G – Abdul Gaddy, G – Isaiah Thomas, F – Justin Holiday, F – Quincy Pondexter, F – Tyreese Breshers
Last time out: The Huskies dominated Cal at Hec Ed, 84-69. Quincy Pondexter has 25, and Isaiah scored 20. Matthew Bryan-Amaning had a quietly efficient game with 10 points, seven rebounds, and a not-so-quiet blocked shot that wound up on Sportscenter.
UW held a 19-point halftime lead and cruised the rest of the way on a day when Cal’s “big three” of Jerome Randle, Theo Robertson, and Patrick Christopher, were simply a “big one.” Christopher scored 28, but no other Bear made an impact on the game
Bears 101: Cal has lost two of their last three, all on the road, and try to keep their hold on first place in the conference.
Jerome Randle (19.1 ppg, 4.7 apg) leads the way for the Bears, who also get double-figure scoring from Patrick Christopher (16.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg), Theo Robertson (14.2 ppg, 45.5% 3-pt. FG), and Jamal Boykin (11 ppg, 6.2 rpg).
Last time the teams played, guard Jorge Gutierrez, one of the Pac-10′s best defenders, was out. This time, the Dawgs will not be so lucky.
Projected lineup: G – Jerome Randle, G – Jorge Gutierrez, G – Patrick Christopher, F – Theo Robertson, F – Jamal Boykin
The Huskies will win if: The Dawgs will win the game if they can somehow, some way, conjur up the level of energy on the defensive end that they have in spades at home, but never on the road. It’s clear that this is a team driven by turnovers and running off of missed shots. Can they make it happen in Berkeley?
The Dawgs will win if they can get some outside shooting (paging Scott Suggs) and open the game up for Quincy Pondexter to work inside and Isaiah Thomas to penetrate.
The Huskies will lose if: They forget to try to get their big men going. Cal is now starting four players 6’6″ and under and a wily-but-not-tough center, Boykin. MBA was effective last time, and he and Tyreese Breshers should not be left out of the offensive gameplanning.
The Huskies will lose if Cal plays its best game. I hate to say it, but I think we’re at a point with this Husky team that we’ve gotta hope for a little bit of luck. I’ve seen nothing to say we can beat a good team on its home floor unless it has an off night. It’s noble to hope for the Huskies to beat Cal at their best, but I’ll settle for just escaping with a win.
A humble suggestion: Abdul Gaddy has had an up-and-down freshman season, and it’s clear now that he’s going to be a sophomore before we see more progress out of the talented point guard. I’m cool with Gaddy starting, but once Venoy checks in, let’s have Overton and Isaiah handle the point guard duties, leaving more minutes for shooting (Scott Suggs, Elston Turner) or defense (Justin Holiday, Darnell Gant). Personally, I don’t need to see Gaddy late in games anymore during this critical stretch of the season.
Prediction: I want so badly to pick the Huskies that I’m afraid my heart (and my fingers) won’t let me type what I really believe is going to happen.
The way we played against Cal at Hec Ed, we could’ve beaten anyone in the country. But, we haven’t seen those Huskies out on the road all year. The Dawgs will come out pumped, but they’ll be playing a good Cal team that’s only lost once at home all year.
Cal wins a heartbreaker, 83-80. The Huskies pull off the upset and win, 79-73. (See, I couldn’t do it!)
Thanks for coming!
Tags: Cal, game preview
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Great writing Josh. Love the humerous ending.
I think the key to the game will be Overton’s first couple of minutes on the court. If the refs allow him to harass Randle without some quick whistles then we have a good chance. If Randle is loosey goosey because Overton and Thomas get called then we are in trouble.
Randle averages 7 three attampts a game and at 39% can be a game breaker or maker. He was 6-12 against both Ohio State and USC and 7-12 against WSU but 0-7 against Iowa State, 1-8 UCLA, and 1-6 against us. Randle also averages 3.7 turnovers a game. VERY unlikely to happen but Holiday on Randle might be interesting.
IMO the key matchup is Thomas/Overton vs Randle.
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Thomas did a great job last time on Randle. Make the extra pass, we win.
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‘A pair of wins in the Bay Area would likely change the Huskies’ perception in the national media from “out of the tournament” to “on the bubble.”‘
The Huskies are 16-7 against the 40-somethingth-rated schdele. Their RPI is 55, and they’re 2-2 against the top 50, 7-5 against the top 100. They’re on the bubble right now, by all measures that the selection comittee uses.
I don’t really understand why people seem to think that the Dawgs have to win out. They don’t. I would think that 5 more wins, plus maybe one in the conference tournament would put them safely in. It would be great to win in Berkely, but it’s not necessary. We NEED to win in Palo Alto.
In fact this attitude kind of worries me. I hope the team doesn’t take the attitude that they absolutely have to win tomorrow. Because if they do, I could see another Saturday let-down like we saw in the games at Arizona and SC. I’d love to win on Thursday, but if we don’t, there are still plenty more opportunities to get into the NCAA Tournament. If we lose both games, then we really are starting to run out of chances.
I do, however, agree w/ most of your game analysis. We need to play w/ tremendous energy and intensity on D, and we need to feed the post. Especially w/ Breshers in. As for Gaddy, I’d let his play determine his minutes. After all, most of his best games so far have been on the road.
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Really enjoy the site–new posts are a welcome repreive(from work.) Started following the Huskies when the Sonics left so, I am just a newbie–but–was wondering if a post about which teams in the running have a difficult stretch ahead. It would seem, that the Cal game is the hardest game we have left–and that we should be able to pick up the Oregon games remaining. What is left for the other teams–just a thought. Thanks.
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I agree with you dawgiedaddy, was thinking about it last night (during the Duke/UNC game…while rooting for Duke w/ the logic being that a UNC loss removes one more team off the bubble which may end up being important to Huskies) and came to the exact same conclusions you did.
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If North Carolina gets in, it would be a miracle. They have so many turnovers. I agree we do not have to win out. One game at a time.
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NC vs Duke was an interesting game. Duke throws up so many threes and they had a ton of offensive boards as pointed out by the Shulman and sidekick. Had me wondering if anyone keeps a stat on offensive boards on threes vis a vis offensive boards on twos or all shots. Really gives me an opportunity to include vis a vis in this post :>)
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Romar’s comments about lack of road energy and Qpon’s comments about being a candy junkie …hmmm maybe the whole team needs to consider healthier road snacks.
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I too was rooting for duke just to free up a tournament spot. In a normal year I would agree that we don’t need to win out, but this is not a normal year. The national media thinks that the pac-10 is so weak that it’s only gonna get one bid. That means the winner of the pac-10 tournament gets in and there are no at large bids. We start making a run and win 5 or 6 of our last seven games it opens up the conversation to the possibility of us getting an at large bids. I think 22 wins is the magic number.
On a side note, Josh I think you’re doing a great job, but I really liked all of the player interviews you were doing. I’m guessing during the season it’s probably hard to do that, but do you think you could do some interviews with some former huskies. I think Ryan Appleby would be really interesting since he helped Pondexter improve his form, I wonder if any current huskies are going to do the same.
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If the Huskies want to repeat as conference champions (their stated goal) then they absolutely have to win tonight, and it will go a long ways towards strengthening their NCAA resume. Can they get in to the dance without a win tonight? Yes, but doing so would be more of an uphill battle than it already is. Winning at Cal would give them an RPI top-50 road win. The Huskies only have two RPI top-50 wins thus far, and besides USC the rest of the schedule is against teams with 100+ RPIs.
The Huskies could easily get squeezed out of an at-large by a team like Oklahoma St, who are projected right now as one of the last four teams in with a 12 seed. They have the exact same record as the Huskies at 16-7, but have three RPI top-50 wins already (one on the road) and still face four more top-50 teams.
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