Staff writer Alex Tuttle takes a look at Saturday’s game against New Mexico. I think it’s safe to say that this is one of the more important games of the Lorenzo Romar era at UW. What’s more, a win against the Lobos sets up a chance to advance further than the Huskies have since Tippy Dye took the 1953 Dawgs to the Final Four.
by Alex Tuttle – Staff Writer
Who: Washington Huskies (25-9, 11-7 Pac-10) vs New Mexico Lobos (30-4, 14-2 Moutain West, #8 AP, #10 ESPN/Coaches)
When: Saturday, March 20, 2010, 2:50 PM PDT
Where: San Jose, CA
TV/Radio: CBS/KJR 950 AM
Breaking down the Lobos: In their first-round match-up, the third-seeded Lobos knocked off the 14 seed Montana Grizzlies for their first NCAA tournament victory since 1999. It was an ugly affair for the Lobos, who trailed at halftime, and found themselves in a one-possession game with under a minute to go.
And, in a late-game plot twist, Lobos’ leading scorer Darrington Hobson injured his left wrist and was left questionable for Saturday. An X-ray this morning, though, revealed no break and Hobson is expected to play.
Last night aside, the Lobos have experienced tremendous success this season. They rolled through the Mountain West conference behind an explosive offense (Ken Pomeroy’s ratings rank the Lobos as the 24th most efficient offense in the nation), and beat Texas A&M and Cal in non-conference play. To win, the Huskies will need to finish what they started last night and find a way to defend a team with multiple offensive weapons.
The Lobos are long and athletic (only one starter shorter than 6’5″), the type of team that can be a difficult matchup for anyone. Six players receive the bulk of the Lobos’ minutes, but they have gone eight or nine deep at times this season, not unlike the Dawgs.
Starters & rotation:
Darrington Hobson (6’7″ junior swingman) is the Lobos leading scorer and best player, as well as the media darling of ESPN’s robotic name-memorizer Jay Bilas. Hobson fills up the stat sheet, averaging 16.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.2 steals, and shoots 35.8% from behind the arc in over 33 minutes per game.
To beat New Mexico, UW must hold Hobson in check. In the Lobos’ loss to San Diego State in January, Hobson shot 4-17 and finished with 12 points. In their loss at Oral Roberts, Hobson was 5-14 with 11 points and 5 turnovers. And when they lost to UNLV, Hobson was held to 14 points on 5-8 shooting. You get the picture. If his wrist injury has him playing at anything less than 100% tomorrow night, it could impact the game.
Dairese Gary (6’1″ junior point guard) is the Lobos’ floor general, capable of scoring (12.8 ppg), and also dangerous from behind the arc (career 38.0%). He averages a steal and 3.9 assists. Gary has saved his best for last, scoring 19 points per game over their last six. As the Lobos’ shortest starter, this important defensive assignment will likely fall to Venoy Overton.
Phillip McDonald (6’5″ sophomore guard) is primarily a three-point weapon who helps to stretch an opponent’s defense. Averaging 10.6 points, McDonald has made 71 treys this year (career 38.6%), and has put up games of 27 and 25 points this year. But he seems to disappear against stronger competition. It took him 12 attempts from three to score 15 points against Cal in December, and he scored 10 or less in wins over Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UNLV, and San Diego State (twice).
A.J. Hardeman (6’8 soph. forward) is an efficient interior presence. Although he averages just 7.1 points, Hardeman shoots nearly 54% from the field (but only 48.9% from the line) in anout 22 minutes per game. He can also be an imposing force defender and rebounder, averaging 1.3 blocks and 5.5 boards.
Roman Martinez (6’6″ senior forward) is a classic wing player who cannot be left open from outside. He shoots 41.6% from deep, averaging 14 points for the Lobos in just over 30 minutes. He also grabs 1.5 steals. He played all 40 minutes against Montana last night, notching 19 points. My guess is that this assignment belongs to Justin Holiday.
Will Brown (6’8″ sophomore forward) is a banger who gives the Lobos an interior presence off the bench. In just 18 minutes per game, Brown is good for 4.3 points and 3.5 boards. He also blocked 31 shots and amassed 90 fouls (a Breshers-ian rate of one every six minutes) this season.
The rest of the rotation is primarily a stable of younger guards who come off the bench sporadically and provide more mixed results. Sophomore guard Nate Garth might be someone to worry about, as he shoots 35% from three in 15 minutes per game this season. But he has played just 34 minutes and scored just four points since the regular season ended two weeks ago. Freshman guard Jamal Fenton also sees minutes off the bench (11.7 mpg) as an aggressive defender (1.3 fouls, 0.6 steals).
Strengths: When the Lobos are going well, they’re making threes, keeping opponents off the glass, and taking care of the basketball.
As a team, the Lobos shoot 37.1% from behind the arc, with several individual threats that may play together on the floor simultaneously. The Dawgs were able to neutralize Marquette’s three-point shooting in the second half of their first game, but the Lobos will have more inside presence to work with.
The Lobos’ offensive turnover percentage is good for tenth in the nation (16.2%). Even in their four losses, the Lobos “only” turned it over a combined 43 times. And they box out on defense, surrendering the 9th lowest offensive rebounding percentage in the country.
But what stands out about the Lobos most is their balance and versatility, as only one of their primary six rotation players is under 6’5″. And they can add Brown off the bench to go with Hardeman and two tall wings. Or they can go heavy on guards. With Gary, McDonald, and Martinez all on the floor together, they can sub in Garth or Fenton to stretch the defense and add a spark off the bench.
Weaknesses: It’s tough to find many weaknesses in this New Mexico squad since they haven’t lost very many times this season. But hiding in that sterling thirty-win record are a lot of mediocre victories over marginal opponents. Seventeen of their victories came over teams outside the RPI top 120. They have a good (but not amazing) 13-4 record against everyone else.
The Lobos can also be streaky shooters, they rank just 86th in the nation in effective field goal percentage, despite all of their shooters. Teams that live by the three can also die by it.
And they don’t hit the offensive glass with authority (#72 in the nation), meaning that the Dawgs could have opportunities to get out in transition and set the pace if they can win the battle on the boards.
One thing that startled me when examining New Mexico was their overall size and length (reminiscent of USC). But, upon closer inspection, the Lobos are nothing like the Trojans defensively. They may be long, but the Lobos allow an effective field goal percentage of 49.3%, ranking 180th nationally. By contrast, USC ranked 5th in the nation (43.2%).
And the Lobos do not force many turnovers on defense, which may play into the hands of UW’s guards. Their forced turnover percentage ranks just 158th in division one.
Huskies’ keys to victory:
Tempo: As we saw against Marquette (and Cal), when the Dawgs can set the pace, force teams into taking quick and/or poor shots, grab rebounds and get out in transition, they can beat high-quality opponents. It’ll be no different against New Mexico. The Lobos don’t play particularly fast normally, and any team that gets into an up-and-down battle with the Huskies will have a tough time keeping up.
Perimeter Defense: In March, a hot shooting team can be damn near impossible to stop. UW got the tournament off to a good start by largely minimizing Marquette’s outside shooters on Thursday. They’ll have to continue to defend outside and get a hand in the face of nearby Lobos.
Win the Turnover Battle: New Mexico isn’t as pesky on defense as they are just solid. They aren’t the ideal team to exploit our propensity for dumb turnovers, but they do protect the basketball. This will be a clear test of strengths, since the Huskies would like to force turnovers themselves, and have been sloppy at times with the ball this season. Whichever team does a better job containing the other’s strength in this area will have the edge.
Get Tough: Does anyone remember that startling high screen that Louisville set against UW in the Sweet 16 five years ago? That pick set the tone for that game, as Louisville continued to push the Dawgs around all night. This season, we’ve seen our guys struggle when things got physical (against USC, Oregon at home, etc).
Lately, we’ve been the tougher team, playing through pain, taking the ball up strong to the hoop, buckling down on defense in the middle of games, and grinding out victories in crunchtime. But with the size of the Lobos, it will be imperative for the Dawgs to come out swinging and set the tone themselves. We should expect Hobson to play a full game on Saturday, but a hard (clean) foul on him early on wouldn’t hurt — to show him who’s boss and set the tone.
Fearless prediction: UW’s draw looked a lot better before I took a closer look at the Lobos. But then again, this Husky team looked a lot worse against Stanford three games ago than they did last night. And New Mexico looked like a team happy to win a game in the tournament for the first time in 11 years, not like they were ready to win a second. I’m picking Washington, 81-78.