November 2009

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Elaine Thompson / AP

Elaine Thompson / AP

Click here for our full game story from last night’s 63-59 victory over Montana.

Here’s some further thoughts and observations from the game:

I like the move to start Tyreese Breshers. Having his rebounding and scoring on the floor more often will only be good for the Dawgs. The shame of it for Darnell Gant is that he’s losing his starting spot after being no less productive than last season. But, with Matthew Bryan-Amaning playing inconsistently (he had a quiet eight points, and eight rebounds last night), Coach needs more out of his frontcourt.

6’11″ center Brian Qvale had his way with the Dawgs last night. If not for four fouls limiting him to 26 minutes, this one could’ve gone differently. He finished with 13 points, 14 rebounds, and made me very concerned about how the Huskies will handle playing against even better big men (read: Georgetown’s Greg Monroe).

Abdul Gaddy is shooting 8-29 from the field this season. His play has been up and down — not surprising for a freshman. He’ll be a major factor as he continues to develop, but what’s clear at this point is that he shouldn’t be counted on as the third scorer the Huskies are looking for behind Quincy and Isaiah.

Gaddy looks better on defense every game. He forced Montana point guard Will Cherry into turnovers on the first two possessions last night during Gaddy’s best stretch of the game.

We’re going to see nights when Elston Turner scores 20 and nights when he scores four. Turner had 11 points last night, but it took him 26 minutes to do it. Coach Romar won’t always be that patient with his streaky shooting guard.

For those of you who enjoy the Vegas side of things. The Huskies are now 1-4 against the point spread this season. The 56-point victory over Portland State was the only spread (18.5) the Huskies have covered. Last night, the Dawgs were favored by 19.5 against Montana.

I know I write about this all the time, but Scott Suggs managed one three-pointer and one rebound in 16 minutes. He missed another four shots and played unremarkable defense. I’m still of the mind that he should be the last man off the bench once the rotation is firmed up.

It shouldn’t be missed after they only won by four, and had but one blocked shot, that the Huskies played very good defense last night. They forced 19 turnovers and held Montana under 40% shooting in the second half.

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Ryan Petitt / UDubSports.com

Ryan Petitt / UDubSports.com

The Washington Huskies defeated the Montana Grizzlies, 63-59 Sunday night at Hec Edmundson Pavilion, raising their record to 5-0 in advance of their first road trip of the season.

The least you should know:

The Huskies never got going offensively against Montana’s matchup zone defense, shooting 24.2% in the first half, and 30.8% for the game.

Elston Turner was the closest thing the Huskies had to an offensive star tonight, scoring 11 points on 4-8 shooting, but only hit 2-6 from beyond-the arc.

To read the rest of the game post (for free, of course), please click here to go over to UDubSports.com.

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UW Montana preview copyThe Huskies (4-0) will play the Montana Grizzlies (4-1) on Sunday night at Hec Edmundson Pavilion at 6:00 PM.

The game will be broadcast on Fox Sports Northwest and KJR-950 in Seattle, or your local Husky radio affiliate elsewhere (click here to find yours). Tickets are still available through GoHuskies.com and start at $20 each.

What you need to know about the Huskies:

The Huskies come into the game at a perfect 4-0, having defeated San Jose State, 80-70, in their last game on Friday, November 20. While the final result of the game was rarely in doubt, the Huskies didn’t play their best against the Spartans, who employed a zone defense.

The Huskies are ranked #14 in the nation in both the AP poll and the Coaches’ poll.

Quincy Pondexter has put together a start for the ages, averaging 24 points and 12 rebounds so far.

Freshman Abdul Gaddy is coming off his best game yet (seven assists, four points, zero turnovers), and looks more confident with each passing day. His 3.5/1 assist-to-turnover rate is tops among Huskies averaging 15+ minutes per game.

This will be the 51st meeting between the Huskies and Grizzlies, with UW winning 41 of the first 50 games in the series. They last played last season, with the Huskies winning, 75-53.

Projected lineup: G – Venoy Overton, G – Isaiah Thomas, F – Quincy Pondexter, F – Darnell Gant, F – Matthew Bryan-Amaning

Husky to watch:

Freshman forward, Clarence Trent: After not playing on opening night, Trent played eight minutes in the second game, and 13 in each of the last two. As Coach Romar has said several times, Trent “makes things happen” when he’s in the game. If Clarence continues to make so much impact with every appearance, he’ll move himself up the depth chart, and will need to be considered for a regular rotation spot as the season progresses. He’s averaging four points and almost four rebounds in 11.3 minutes per game.

What you need to know about Montana:

Montana comes into the game at 4-1, most recently picking up an impressive road win over Oregon, 68-55, on Monday night.

The Grizzlies went 17-12 last season overall, and 11-5 in conference play, finishing in a second-place tie in the Big Sky Conference. Montana was picked to finish second in the Big Sky coaches’ poll, and third in the media poll.

Head coach Wayne Tinkle enters his fourth season at Montana and returns four of his top six performers, including his two best players, from last season.

The most dangerous Grizzly is last season’s Big Sky newcomer of the year (and all-conference selection), guard Anthony Johnson. Considered by many to be the best player in the conference, Johnson was named last week’s Big Sky player-of-the-week, and is averaging 22 points, 4 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game.

Kirkland native, senior guard Ryan Staudacher, led the Big Sky in three-point percentage in 2008/2009, and averages more than five long-range attempts per game. 6’11″ center, Brian Qvale averages 11.6 points, 7.6 boards, and two blocks.

Projected lineup: G – Anthony Johnson, G – Ryan Staudacher, G – Will Cherry, F – Jack McGillis, C – Brian Qvale

Grizzly to watch:

Senior guard, Anthony Johnson: Johnson is adept at penetrating and drawing fouls, getting to the line 15 times during the upset at Oregon. When defenses collapse on him, he can dish to backcourt-mate Staudacher in the corner. In last year’s meeting, the Huskies held Johnson to 11 points on 4-13 shooting, and only sent him to the line four times. The Dawgs will need to throw a mix of defenders (Overton, Holiday, and Pondexter) at him and hope for a similar result this time around.

A QUICK word from the opposition:

Montana head coach Wayne Tinkle was pressed for time when I got in touch but was able to fire off some quick-hit responses to a few questions. Here’s what we discussed:

Montlake Madness: Please give me the capsule scouting report on your team as you see it at this point — style of play, strengths, weaknesses, etc.

Coach Tinkle: We are a balanced team inside and out and play multiple defenses.

MM: What’s your strategy for beating Washington?

CT: We need to play at our pace and take good care of the ball.

MM: You were an assistant coach when Montana shocked Nevada in the 2006 NCAA Tournament. How much extra meaning do your regular season games against bigger conference schools take on, knowing there are so few opportunities before tournament time to test yourselves against those schools likely to get the high seeds come tournament time?

CT: It’s important to gain confidence.

MM: Can you give me your brief scouting report on the Huskies?

CT: The Huskies are very deep and dangerous.  We must find a way to slow them down.

MM: You’ve got a few players from the Puget Sound area on your roster. Describe what it means for a local player to come compete in a game close to home.

CT: It’s important to bring players back to their homes and play in areas that we recruit.

MM: What’s your coaching philosophy? How do you approach being a basketball coach and also being a role model to your players?

CT: My focus offensively is solid, balanced scoring inside and out.  I’ll change tempo’s depending on our opponents strengths and weaknesses.  Defensively I like to mix things up to keep our opponent from getting into a rhythm.

The path to victory:

Pressure defense: The Grizzlies turned the ball over 19 times against the Ducks pressure on Monday and still won by 13 points. If Montana thought Oregon’s defense was annoying, the Dawgs have the capability to be downright stifling. If young point guards Will Cherry (freshman) and Shawn Stockton (sophomore; John Stockton’s nephew) leave Hec Ed wondering what in the world just hit them, the Huskies should be in good shape.

Beating the zone: We wrote a longer post on this Wednesday. Montana shut down Oregon’s offense, holding them to 33% shooting, using a matchup zone. While the Huskies didn’t look good against San Jose State’s zone, they managed to grind the game out and win. Montana is a better team than San Jose State, and this will be a good opportunity for the Huskies, especially Isaiah Thomas, to gain more experience. Some day soon, an opponent will be too good for the Huskies to beat without playing their best, and facing the zone cannot be an excuse for mediocre execution.

What I expect:

I  expect a confident Montana team will show up, fresh off the victory at Oregon. Coach Tinkle has scheduled two tough road games each year for his team since taking over, and many of these Grizzlies are veterans of games at Duke, Gonzaga, and UW. They won’t be in awe of the #14 Huskies.

I expect Abdul Gaddy to see as many minutes as Venoy Overton as the freshman’s play continues to improve. I also expect Tyreese Breshers to continue eating into Darnell Gant’s time on the floor.

I expect the Huskies to come out swinging after the so-so performance last time out. I’m picking the Dawgs by 20, 86-66.

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Later today, a preview of the Huskies’ game against Montana on Sunday. But, first:

Watching this makes me not so sad about losing Josh Smith or waiting on Terrence Jones. Plus, Desmond’s a heck of a nice kid and I can’t wait to root for him. Enjoy. . .

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UW turkey copy I’m back east celebrating Thanksgiving. But, I still wanted to say a quick Happy Thanksgiving to you:

As those of you who have been reading since early on know, Montlake Madness has grown from nothing (our first couple of posts were read by nearly nobody) to become what I hope is a lively, fun and engaging community for Husky basketball fans.

All of that growth has come from you, the people who drop by every day, or a few times a week, or maybe just before or after games to get the very basics on the Huskies.

It’s a very satisfying thing waking up each morning, taking a look at comments and emails from readers, and thinking about what to write about.

For you, the Husky faithful that have deemed my little site worthy of your time, I truly am most thankful.

Wishing you all the best on my favorite holiday of the year,
Josh

Zone defense 2-3 copyWatching last week’s game against San Jose State, it’s apparent that the Huskies are going to see a lot of zone defense this season. I’m a little concerned about how effective the Spartan defense, employed by clearly less talented players, was so effective in keeping the Dawgs’ offense leashed last night.

Zone defenses will neutralize one of the things the Huskies do best: an up-tempo attack with plenty of guard penetration, and it will force them into more outside shooting, still a question mark for the team.

The good news is that this idea of teams trying to beat the Dawgs with a zone has been apparent since training camp, and the Huskies have been preparing for it. Coach Lorenzo Romar mentioned yesterday that Quincy Pondexter quickly becomes scoring option #1 when teams drop out of man-to-man defense. Quincy’s big game last night (including the first 13 Husky points of the second half, all against a zone) was a big part of the reason San Jose State’s upset dreams never came closer to fruition.

While Quincy will continue to find success working out of the high post against the zone, Isaiah may have his difficulties at times, particularly if his jumper isn’t falling.

In my opinion, there is a lineup the Huskies can employ that’ll be set up for dismantling the zone. However, it will at times require Lorenzo Romar to shorten his bench and take a leap of faith with his three best defensive players (Overton, Holiday, and Gant) all on the bench for certain stretches.

The “Zonebuster” squad looks like this: Abdul Gaddy, with his precision passing and more controlled tempo is necessary when the Huskies find themselves playing against a defense that neutralizes their athletic advantage. Isaiah Thomas is too good not to find a way to be successful against the zone, but will need to temper his urge to drive, and look more to dish once the defense has collapsed on him. Elston Turner is the perfect wing to receive these passes. Clearly more comfortable without a defender in his face, Turner could shoot 40%-45% from deep if most of his shots were the open ones often earned against the zone. Quincy Pondexter moving freely between the high post, or making back door cuts along the baseline, gives the Huskies a zonebusting specialist. And, Tyreese Breshers, who can receive the ball and get a shot up even against double coverage, rounds out my Zonebusters lineup. Breshers is enough of a presence not to get swallowed up even when outnumbered in the post.

What do you think? What will the Huskies do to combat the zone this season? Are you concerned? Let me know below, and thanks for coming.

Which of these best describes your thoughts about the Huskies' ability to run their offense against a zone defense?

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wroten dunkHere’s a quick link to The Times’ Mason Kelly, who wrote about Tony Wroten’s knee injury today.

I’d heard a tiny bit of buzz that Wroten may be attempting to get back in time to play at least some of his junior year, despite the initial appraisal on his injury having him out 7-9 months. (Wroten was injured in mid-September.)

Kelly spoke briefly to Wroten’s coach, who said that, at this point, he was planning to be without Wroten for the entire season.

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Enes Kanter copyThanks to everyone who emailed, commented, texted or called to let me know about the report that Enes Kanter had given a verbal commitment to play for the Huskies in 2010.

I’ve actually wondered for a while what might happen if some big Husky news happened while I was indisposed, and got my answer today. You are all awesome, and I appreciate all the heads-up.

Kanter indeed has, according to several reports and quotes from his coach, given his verbal to the Huskies. This is amazing news. Here’s what we’ve got on Kanter:

Vital stats:

  • Kanter was born in Switzerland, but is of Turkish descent.
  • He’s about 6’10, 245 lbs., and 17 years-old.
  • He’s currently playing for Stoneridge Prep, and played with Turkish professional team Fenerbahçe Ülker before that, however he did not accept payment for playing.
  • ESPN calls him the #9 center in the 2010 class, and Scout.com projects him as the #7 center.
  • Purely based on his skill, size and age (not anything Enes has actually said), Kanter is considered a candidate to be a “one-and-done” player by the two most authoritative sites on the matter, NBADraftnet and DraftExpress.
  • Kanter dominated the under-18 European Championships, averaging 18.6 points and 16.4 rebounds per game.

Scouting report (courtesy ESPN/Scouts, Inc.):

I’ve never seen Kanter play, but here’s the most thorough scouting report I’ve read:

Kanter is a fundamentally sound basketball player with a high basketball IQ. Enes scores the basketball all over the floor and is an efficient player in the post. When in the post, Enes is patient and reads what the defense is giving him. He does a great job of establishing deep post position and loves to create contact with his opponent. Enes uses a drop step or step through move in the post, as well as, two dribble drop baseline moves from both sides of the floor. He is always on two feet when going to finish and keeps the ball chinned while completing his moves in the post. Enes finishes his lay-ups above the rim; occasionally, he will dunk. Enes is comfortable knocking down the three-point shot as the trail post or picking and popping in the half court offense. He will rebound the basketball at its highest point and goes outside of his body to grab a number of rebounds. His physical traits plus his feel for the game will allow him to be an excellent player at the high major level.

What this means for the Huskies:

After losing out on Josh Smith, and not getting Terrence Jones in the early signing period, this is huge for the Dawgs.

Kanter is ranked nearly as high as Smith is by many of the scouts that follow high school hoops closely. The big thing I’m reading that Kanter may have above Smith is his versatility, and ability to face up to the basket. For all we know, Kanter could be a better fit than Smith for the Huskies.

There is a chance, depending on a forthcoming ruling from the NCAA, that Kanter would be ineligible for a number of games next season.

This puts the Huskies in a great position for next season, as their perceived weakness from this year will be much addressed. Assuming Tyreese Breshers continues to show the same level of promise, he, MBA, Gant and Kanter could be a force in the post in 2010/2011. Add that to another year of Isaiah, Abdul and Venoy in the backcourt, and a combo of J-Hol, Elston, Desmond Simmons, C.J., and Scott Suggs should be (at least) serviceable on the wing.

What this means for Terrence Jones:

This makes the Huskies pursuit of Terrence Jones more interesting, as it projects to leave them without room for him. If no one leaves the team before then, the Huskies will return 11 scholarship players next year. With the addition of Simmons and Kanter, they’ll be at the maximum of 13 scholarships. If Jones signs with Huskies, something will have to give. A few possibilities:

  • Sad as it would make me, Isaiah Thomas could wind up leaving for the NBA.
  • Someone could choose to (or be asked to) transfer.
  • A player could choose to (or be asked to) pay his own way.

Anyhow, this is the special “Romar Math,” that people talk about, and things ultimately seem to work out, so I’m going to continue to view the concept of landing Terrence Jones as a 100% good thing.

Extra reading:

The Zagsblog story on the signing with plenty of praise for Kanter.

Here’s Percy Allen’s article on the signing for the Times.

An ESPN profile of Kanter, called “Meet Enes Kanter,” focusing on his Euroleague debut.

Another ESPN article from today about Kanter’s impressive performance at the Impact Basketball Academy Classic.

Video clips of Kanter:

Thanks for coming!

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Pac 10 floor smallThe Pac-10 came into this season being derided as weaker than usual, with many national experts predicting a “down year” for the conference. It’s hard, as a UW fan, to see it that way because all is well on Montlake. Expectations are high, and the team is playing well to start the year, even being called a darkhorse by one of Sports Illustrated’s writers to compete for a spot in the Final Four.

But so far, the conference’s performance as a whole has mostly lived down to the not-so-great expectations, even when the games have resulted in wins. A few examples:

Bears’ blunders: Ranked #12 in the most recent ESPN/USA Today poll, the Bears were blown out by Syracuse and defeated by Ohio State in two games in New York. Yes, they played without Theo Robertson (who should be back soon) and Harper Kamp (who probably won’t), but the co-favorites to win the Pac-10 did nothing good for the league during the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic.

Brobama’s beatdowns: Along with Cal and UW, the most buzzed-about Pac-10 team during the preseason, Oregon State, has dropped three of its first four games, one of them to Texas A&M – Corpus Christi, and another at home to Sacramento State, after which Coach Craig Robinson called his team’s first-half performance, “a complete embarrassment.”

Cupcake wins: It’s only been a week-and-a-half, and six of the conference’s teams have suffered at least one loss. Worse, though, of the 23 wins by teams from the conference this season, all have been games in which the Pac-10 team was favored. The four contests league teams have played without being the favorite have all been losses.

Vegas doesn’t lie: While the conference’s overall record stands at 23-10, the Pac-10′s record aganst the spread so far is 14-17-2.* This means that the conference’s teams are often not living up to bettors’ expectations either, all the while playing what should be subpar competition. Even UW, which looks like the Pac-10′s best team at this point, has gone only 1-3 against the spread.

Of course, it’s early. Most teams in the country will be better in two months than they are now. However, time will run out by then for the conference to improve its reputation, which means even teams that dominate during the Pac-10 schedule will be looked at skeptically come Selection Sunday.

There’s only one way to make up for the bad perception of the conference, which is almost surely even worse now than it was before the season tipped off. The Pac-10 schools must collectively rack up a few impressive wins over the final six weeks of 2009, before the perception of each conference’s strength is essentially locked. A quick look at the key games, though, makes me concerned that so many of these contests seem like longshots for the conference:

Arizona St. at #8 Duke (11/25) -  Projected winner: Duke

Washington St. at Gonzaga (12/2) – Projected winner: Gonzaga

USC at #3 Texas (12/3) – Projected winner: Texas

Oregon at Missouri (12/5) – Projected winner: Missouri

Washington St. at Kansas St. (12/5) – Projected winner: Kansas State

USC at #19 Georgia Tech (12/5) – Projected winner: Georgia Tech

Arizona at #17 Oklahoma (12/6) – Projected winner: Oklahoma

UCLA vs. #1 Kansas (12/6) – Projected winner: Kansas

UW vs. #20 Georgetown (in Anaheim, 12/12) – Projected winner: UW

UCLA vs. Mississippi St. (12/12) – Projected winner: UCLA

UCLA at Notre Dame (12/19) – Projected winner: Notre Dame

USC home vs. #11 Tennessee (12/19) – Projected winner: Tennessee

Cal at #1 Kansas (12/22) – Projected winner: Kansas

UW vs. Texas A&M (12/22) – Projected winner: UW

Washington St. vs. LSU (12/22) – Projected winner: WSU

Analysis: Several of the games that might be winnable for the conference otherwise (WSU/Kansas State, Oregon/Missouri, UCLA/Notre Dame) have the Pac-10 school on the road, which is a shame. And, many of these are nearly impossible to imagine winning, including all eight of the games against ranked opponents, except for UW’s game against Georgetown on December 12th.

Somehow, though, the conference’s schools are going to need to win at least some of these fifteen games to make a case to the selection committee that more than two or three Pac-10 teams belong in the field of 65 in March.

Otherwise, regardless of the improvement that may be coming down the pipe for teams that have struggled early like Oregon State, UCLA and Cal, even a dynamic conference season will likely not be enough to save the Pac-10 from poor representation and low seeding come tournament time.

Much as it may pain you to root for Wazzu or UCLA, keep in mind that their wins will be good for UW down the road. So, try it Wednesday: hold your nose and root for Derek Glasser and his Sun Devils to shock Duke. It won’t be easy, but it may be the only hope we have for anything better than a #4 seed for the Dawgs this March.

Thanks for coming!

*Not every Pac-10 hoops game was put up on the board for betting. For seven of the eight that weren’t, determining whether the result would’ve gone for or against the spread was pretty obvious. The one iffy assumption I made was that UCLA would’ve been favored by less than 12 in their victory Friday night against CS – Bakersfield (based on their opening night loss and the absence of Nikola Dragovic).

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Basketball box score circa 1921 / courtest: Duryea, PA

Basketball box score circa 1921 / Courtesy: Duryea, PA

I really enjoy pouring over the multitude of stats available for college basketball at two sites in particular: StatSheet.com and Kenpom.com.

The non-traditional stats that are prevalent on these two sites (particularly Kenpom.com) can be daunting, but give a much better picture of a team’s play than just looking at the typical points, rebounds, FG%, etc.

I’ll admit to having to look for explanations of the different stats to refresh my memory whenever I’ve been away for a few days. But now, I’m just going to bookmark this great primer from UW Dawg Pound’s post “Your Guide to Tempo-Free Statistics.”

If you’re a stathead at all, check this out, and then pour over the stats at StatSheet and Kenpom.

Thanks for coming!

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