How Do the Huskies’ At-Large Chances Look?

March 10, 2010 in Uncategorized | 8 comments

bracketBefore the Huskies play their Pac-10 Tournament game against Oregon State, here’s a look at how their chances for an at-large bid look at this point from another one of our new contributors. Thanks, DD, for the great piece.

by Dawg Diggler (formerly known as “Griffin”)

Let’s play…… THE BUBBLE GAME! (click for music)

It’s the game that’s taking the country by storm! You know the rules. You can only pick one of these bubble teams to go into the NCAA tournament and the rest are doomed to the NIT. Don’t cheat!

Team “X”:

Expected RPI (after this weekend): 49

Record: 21-9

Strength of Schedule (SOS): 61

Vs. top 50: 2-2

Vs. top 25: 2-2

Quality Wins (RPI): (11), (20), (53)

Bad Losses (RPI): (148), (147), 2 (110)

Team “Y”:

Expected RPI: 75

Record: 18-13

SOS: 41

Vs. top 50: 4-8

Vs. top 25: 3-4

Quality Wins: (16), (25), (22), (27)

Bad Losses: (155), (117)

Team “Z”:

Expected RPI : 51

Record: 23-8

SOS: 81

Vs. top 50: 2-5

Vs. top 25: 0-3

Quality Wins: 2(40), (57)

Bad Losses: (200), (160), (191)

You make your pick? If you picked team “X”, congratulations! That’s our Washington Huskies. As of now, they are the first team out in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology on ESPN. If you picked team “Y”, then you chose Illinois. And team “Z” is Memphis. Both of those teams are on Lunardi’s “last four in” list. Shame on you if you picked “Y” or “Z.”

If you want to compare and contrast your own teams, go to realtimerpi.com, or you can use rpiforecast.com.

Who to root for this weekend:

As we all know, the conference tournaments are sink or swim for bubble teams. If a bunch of Cinderellas win their league tournaments, the at-large bids start to evaporate. For the Huskies, we want to maximize the number of at-large bids, so we can have the best chance possible to make it, assuming we don’t win the Pac-10 Tournament. Conference by conference, here’s who you need to be rooting for this weekend.

ACC/Big East/Big 12: No real worries here. Each of these three conferences has seven or eight at-large bids locked up, so the only thing to root against here is a big underdog going on a run for the ages. And, of course, root against Duke. I hate Duke.

Atlantic 10: With Temple, Richmond, and Xavier already likely in the tourney, we need to be pulling for one of those 3 teams to win. Focus all of your hate towards Dayton, Charlotte, and especially Rhode Island.

Big 10: We need Illinois to lose against Wisconsin in the first round. This could be the single biggest game for the Dawgs going on outside of the Pac-10 Tournament. If the Illini win a game, they are most likely in, but if they lose their second game in a row, it’d be questionable. Another potential Husky-heartbreaker is Minnesota. They should lose to Michigan State in the second round, but if they win it could be trouble.

Big West/MAC/MEAC/Southland/SWAC: These conferences do not matter at all. They have zero at large bids, so the winner of their tournaments gets the bid and that’s that.

Conference USA: This is a muddy conference and resembles the PAC-10. UTEP is the best, with UAB and Memphis sitting on the bubble. Some believe that a potential UAB/Memphis semifinal match-up is potentially an elimination game, like many are predicting an ASU/UW game would be. Root for UAB or Memphis to lose early, and the other to win. I’m pulling for UAB because I loved Squeaky Johnson.

MWC: New Mexico, BYU, and UNLV look to have their at-large bids locked up. San Diego State must not beat New Mexico in their potential semifinal. The Aztecs are on the bubble with the Dawgs and a win for them would easily push them into the tournament and steal another at-large bid. Root for the Lobos all the way here.

Pac- 10: Root for the Huskies. You got that? I’m not making any assumptions. Another team to root for is Cal. Best case is a Dawgs/Cal final. Experts have thrown out the idea that if Arizona upsets Cal and then beats the Huskies in the championship game, a win over ASU in the semis may not be enough for UW.

SEC: Root against Florida. They seem to be on the edge of the tournament and a loss early to Auburn could push them all the way out. Other than that, it’s pretty cut and dry.

WAC: Root against Nevada. Root for Utah State. These two teams will very likely meet in the finals because they are easily the two best. Utah State has a case for an at-large bid even if they lose that game. Nevada, however, needs to win to get in. If the Wolfpack win the game and Utah State earns an at-large, the Huskies chances get even slimmer.

Have faith Husky Nation. We WILL make it to The Big Sance. I can feel it in my bones. If karma exists, we are due for the good kind. A couple prayers here and there wouldn’t hurt either.

Thanks for coming!

Tags:

What Lies Ahead for the Dawgs in the Pac-10 Tournament

March 10, 2010 in Uncategorized | 5 comments

Pac 10 floor smallHey there, team Madness. Here’s another piece by a new contributor. Hope you enjoy! Agree? Disagree? Please let Josh L. know what you think.

by Josh Liebeskind

Many question marks are swirling around Montlake, so let’s jump right in and take a look at what the Dawgs are facing in the Pac-10 Tournament.

First Round (vs. Oregon State): After beating the Beavers for the second time this season, the Huskies will immediately face Oregon State for a third time. This is not a game the Huskies should take lightly. It’s challenging to beat a team three times in one year, let alone back-to-back.

The 1-3-1 zone the Beavers deploy is another reason to worry.  It has proven troublesome for the Huskies at times this season.  If the Huskies cannot get out in transition, then they are liable to have an offensive breakdown.  If the Huskies can penetrate and shoot like they did on Saturday, though, I have no reason to doubt their ability to beat the Beavers for a third time.  Look for I.T. to have another big game, especially if Abdul Gaddy can penetrate the zone at will.

Second Round (vs. Arizona State/Stanford winner): Assuming they meet Arizona State, this game is going to test the Huskies mentally and physically.  If OSU’s zone causes fits for opposing players, then ASU’s zone causes chaos.  The Sun Devils are eighth in the nation in team defense, giving up only 58.1 points per game.  Since losing by 17 at ASU in the first matchup of the season, the Huskies offense has shown improvement against zone defenses and Justin Holiday has turned into the defensive catalyst.

With the mixture of offensive improvement and Holiday’s All-Pac-10 defense on Rihards Kuksiks, I am confident the Huskies can come out on top and play themselves into the championship game.

Finals: At this point, barring a major upset, the Huskies would advance to play Arizona or Cal.  Both would be a tough matchup for the Huskies outside of Hec Ed and may prove too much to handle after two straight tough games.  But the way the Huskies are playing, it’s hard not to be confident in the their ability to beat anyone in the conference.

What needs to happen: I firmly believe the Huskies do not need to win the Pac-10 tournament to earn a bid into the NCAA Tournament.  If they win two games and reach the tournament finals, they would finish with a record of 23-10.  Even in a down year, it would be difficult for the committee to turn down 23 wins from a Pac-10 team. And, it’s particularly hard to imagine with UCLA’s athletic director as the head of this year’s committee.

Thanks, Josh L.

And, thanks for coming!

Tags:

Q-POW, but not Q-POY?

March 9, 2010 in Uncategorized | 10 comments

This thief averaged less than a steal per game.

This thief averaged less than a steal per game.

In case you haven’t heard, the Pac-10 awards came out on Monday. Here’s a link to the results.

As you’ll see in another really great piece here by a new contributor, Quincy Pondexter came up short for the Player of the Year award, despite winning his fifth Player of the Week award (a record). A questionable choice accoring to WhoLetTheDawgsOut. . .

Agree with the sentiments below? Disagree? Let us hear you in the comments section!

by WhoLetTheDawgsOut

DATELINE: WALNUT CREEK, CA

Pac-10 Commissioner: “And the winner of Pac 10 Player of the Year (POY) is…”

(pause for suspense… opens the envelope)

Pac -10 Commissioner: “…not Quincy Pondexter.”

Jerome Randle pauses for a second, only to give the best Michael Strahan smile of his life and accepts the trophy with gratitude and enthusiasm.

Q-Pon graciously claps for his comrade and does not show an ounce of disappointment or jealousy.

As the ceremony concludes, Q-Pon makes his way toward the door as Roscoe consoles his son.

Pac -10 Commissioner: “Quincy, where are you going? You forgot your door prize. You won Pac 10 Player of the Week (POW). Come on up and get your Tootsie Pop.”

(end scene)

The coaches may as well have just given Q-Pon the Sportsmanship Award instead today. Sometimes, a consolation prize leaves a bigger scar than receiving nothing at all. Simply put, today was a kick in the face to the record-setting five-time POW recipient.

The Question: What prestigious fraternity do Sean Lampley, Sam Clancy, Luke Ridnour, Ike Diogu, Brandon Roy, and James Harden all belong to?

Answer:  Pac-10 Players of the Year who were not members of the Pac-10 champion that year.

The Takeaway: Past seasons have proven that Pac-10 coaches have recognized the best conference player based upon his merit, not just on the results on his team’s final position in the standings.

The Frustration: Why couldn’t they be consistent with that same assessment this year? Lorenzo Romar said it best today when he claimed that there “should have been a CO-MVP.”  Playing for the conference champion shouldn’t win you that much favor when coaches are selecting the best player.

We have heard a lot about both players’ stat lines today when trying to pick a winner. But in my eyes, the most blaring statistical comparison that was overlooked was something I picked up in the 2nd grade:  5  > 1. When coaches were asked to vote for the best player in the past week’s games, they voted for Pondexter FIVE times and Randle ONCE.

Not to mention Q-Pon is leading a team, as a lone senior, with only two prominent scorers (himself and IT), whereas Randle (one of four seniors) is leading a team that has three scorers (himself, Patrick Christopher, and Theo Robertson). No person, this writer included, can even fathom the rationale used to leave Pondexter out pf at least a share of the crown this year. Were coaches too spellbound from Quincy’s ballet performance in The Nutcracker that they forgot about his on court performance? Not likely, but that’s the only loophole I can think of.

And even more frustrating: Randle delivered a presumably decisive final blow in the POY race with his 33-point statement game against UW in February. Does this cancel out his five point, eight turnover performance earlier this season? And further, did the Oregon game, when Quincy went for a career-high 34 points, not being televised (nor any highlights) have any impact on the decision? One has to wonder.

The Rebound: As gracious as Quincy has been through today, bet your bottom dollar that he has something to prove. We all know the Dawgs are on the bubble, playing for one of the last tournament bids. But, Quincy will be playing for much more than that. Today’s news today should serve as fuel to help ignite his game to another level.

But is this chip that Quincy is sure to carry on his shoulders enough to carry the Dawgs to a Pac-10 Tourney title? Dawg Nation sure hopes so.

What do you think?

Thanks for coming!

Tags:

Panic Not! Methinks Terrence Jones Report Was Jumping the Gun

March 8, 2010 in Uncategorized | 1 comment

terrence jones on court copyThanks to EVERYONE who emailed or commented letting me know about Percy Allen’s post on the Times’ blog that one Oregon newspaper says Terrence Jones is expected to sign with Kentucky.

I checked out the article that Percy pointed to, but also found this one from Monday evening that speaks to Jones directly. Jones doesn’t say anything about Kentucky (or UW), but says that he’s not ruling out Oregon despite the reports swirling of Ernie Kent’s firing.

I think suggesting Jones had made a decision already was just a mistake by the original reporter at the Albany-Democrat Herald, and since an awful lot of us hinging on every piece of news about a highly touted prospect, it spread in the Husky-verse. In truth, I think this is a big hunk of nothing.

So, I say, fear not. I haven’t seen a thing about Jones making a final decision about Kentucky, UW, or anywhere else.

The signing period starts April 14th and goes through May 19th. And, since he’s taken his sweet time up to this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see TJ take every last minute of that time to make his choice.

Once he does, you’ll see it right here. Until then, we’ll keep guessing, just like everyone else. And, in case you were wondering, if I had to bet my life savings (sorry Mrs. Madness for even suggesting something so crazy with a baby coming!), I think Jones is indeed coming to UW.

Thanks for coming!

Glass Half Full/Glass Half Empty: UW Beats OSU

March 7, 2010 in Uncategorized | 23 comments

200458043-001Welcome to a new feature here at Montlake Madness called “Glass Half Full/Glass Half Empty.” We’ve asked two writers to do some analysis on the Huskies’ 82-70 win over Oregon State on Saturday night, one focusing on the positive, and one on the negative.

As I’ve written, you’ll be seeing some new voices on Montlake Madness in the coming weeks as I try to make the site more of a team effort and keep the information and opinion flowing, even as I have less time to personally devote.

Tonight, we welcome “Griffin” and “WhoLetTheDawgsOut,” both making their Montlake Madness debuts. Agree with their points, or not? Let them hear you in the comments section. And, thanks to both guys who we hope to see plenty more from in the future.

Glass Half Full, by Griffin:

Abdul Gaddy: He scored seven points on 3-4 shooting, had two assists, two rebounds, a steal, and only one turnover in 23 minutes. It’s not his box score that shined against the Beavers, but his on-court leadership, considering he’s still only a freshman. Early on, MBA scored and drew a foul and did his “mean-mug” where he gives us all two tickets to the gun show. Gaddy ran up to him, put his hand on MBA’s head and told him to calm down and get re-focused. His leadership skills and knowledge of the game may be second only to Quincy’s on this team. . . and he’s only 18.

Assist-to-turnover ratio against the zone: 17 assists and only seven turnovers on Saturday night. The Huskies will make it to the Pac-10 championship game if they can limit themselves to only seven turnovers when they see a zone defense. I realize that Oregon State’s zone isn’t as good as ASU’s, but the Beavers threw the kitchen sink at the Dawgs, with a 1-3-1, a 2-3, and I may have even seen a 3-2 at one point.

Isaiah Thomas: He shot 66% from the field and 2-5 from three-land. He got into the paint at will and abused the Beavers whenever a mismatch presented itself. If you consider his five assists and only one turnover, I would argue this was his best game in the last month.

MBA: What more can be said? 20 points and 11 rebounds against the Beavers tonight. “Domination” is my word of choice. He’s averaging 13.3 points and 8.1 rebounds in the last eight games. This is a completely different player. He’s like Claire from “Lost”. He started out as a horrible role player that backed away when things got tough. Now? He’s a beast, and everyone needs to keep an eye on him when he’s on the court. Is he the best big man in the Pac-10? Over the last eight games, there’s no question that he is.

Glass Half Empty, by WhoLetTheDawgsOut:

As a fan, it’s hard to be a Debbie Downer after UW’s fourth straight road win, but there’s always room for improvement.

The Dawgs looked like they were scrambling for defensive boards today as Roeland Schaftenaar, Seth Tarver and “Big Baby” Burton pounded away on the offensive glass getting 2nd and 3rd opportunities which kept OSU competitive. Our bigs need to do a better job of getting a body on their defensive assignments in order to go further into the Pac-10 Tourney.

So has been the story all year long, inbounding under our own basket continued to be our Achilles heel as we have been notorious for turning the ball over in these situations.  Today was no different with a turnover in the first half and a near-five-second call in the second. Coach Romar must develop a simple inbounds play to set a screen, freeing one of our guards. We don’t need anything flashy. We just need to get the ball in consistently.

The one particular sequence which had me on edge was mid-way through the first half when Romar went with a frontline of Tyreese Breshers and Darnell Gant. During this two-minute stretch, UW looked discombobulated on offense and struggled to find fluidity. Coach experimented with this combo for a couple of minutes, but didn’t repeat this mistake again in the game.

Last but not least, free throws continue to haunt Isaiah Thomas. His 1-3 from the line was the only damper on a brilliant game he played today.

The only other thing I can say for IT is not a hit on his game, but on his swag. We all love his confidence, but can’t quite seem to fall for his Kid ’n Play mini-fro, or the hand running through his hair at the end of the game.  Somewhere Will “Confident Not Cocky” Conroy is smiling.

***

Thanks to Griffin and WhoLetTheDawgsOut. Great job guys!

And, thanks for coming!

Tags: , ,

Huskies Defeat Beavers, 82-70

March 7, 2010 in Uncategorized | No comments

Joshua Trujillo / Seattlepi.com

Joshua Trujillo / Seattlepi.com

The Huskies defeated the Oregon State Beavers, 82-70, on Saturday night at Gill Colosseum in Corvallis.

Matthew Bryan-Amaning tallied 20 points and 11 rebounds, his largest scoring total since the second game of the season against Belmont. Isaiah Thomas scored 19 points and had five assists. And, Quincy Pondexter had 18.

The Dawgs for the nearly the entire game, and never let Oregon State cut significantly into their lead in the second half, despite a few moments when it looked like they might. Notably, the Huskies only turned the ball over seven times.

Coming up:

Pac-10 honors will be announced early next week, and Husky fans have plenty to root for. Among the possible award-winners: Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas for the All-Pac-10 team, Venoy Overton and Justin Holiday for All-Defensive team, and of course, Q-Pon for Player of the Year.

The Huskies’ win sets up a rematch with Oregon State in the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament at 6 PM on Thursday night.

Tags:

State of the Blog, Part II

March 6, 2010 in Uncategorized | 1 comment

What a great day today.

After yesterday’s post, I was so happy to hear from a bunch of readers who’d like to step up and contribute to the site.

If you’ve emailed, or left a note in the comments section, about wanting to write, please hold tight for a moment — I’ll be in touch soon.

If you’re reading, take heart — it sounds like I might get the help I need to keep the site going.

Stay tuned. Here’s to making Montlake Madness a team effort!

Big night tomorrow for the Dawgs. Big night. Check in for some post-game coverage after it’s over.

Thanks for coming!

State of the Blog

March 5, 2010 in Uncategorized | 8 comments

A bunch of readers have asked lately, so I want to give a better explanation than I did last time as to why you aren’t seeing as much here at Montlake Madness.

The short answer is that I simply haven’t got as much time at this point to write.

The longer answer is that I started the blog over a period of time when things were pretty predictable in most areas of my life. Building the site up from nothing, to single-digit readership, to hundreds, to over a thousand members of the Montlake Madness community is something I’m incredibly proud of. But, to every thing there is a season. . .

Without sharing more than you really want to hear, I haven’t got as much time lately, one of the reasons being the very happy development that I’m going to be a dad later this year.

I wish I could say that the daily, or more regular, coverage you’ve come to expect here would pick up again at some point, but I don’t know if that’s the case. The season will be over in the next few weeks, and by the time we tip again for the 2010/2011 season, I’m going to have a much more important pre-7-AM (my normal writing time) appointment than the blog.

On the other hand, I do love what I’ve built here and I don’t want it to evaporate into the ether. I truly love the community of readers we’ve built. I love hearing your thoughts in our comments section, and in the polls we sometimes put out there. And, I love that we’ve got another free site covering the most awesome college basketball team in the world.

So, here’s the deal: For the time being, I’m going to continue writing when I am able to. Moving forward, though, the best case scenario for the site would be for me to hand the daily care of Montlake Madness over to someone else, hopefully still leaving the door open for me to write when I get a chance.

If you think you might be the right torch-carrier for Montlake Madness, please get in touch with me and let’s talk: MontlakeMadness@gmail.com

If I’ve disappointed some of you recently, I’m truly sorry for that. It’s been a great time and if I have anything to say about it, we’ll keep it going here somehow.

As always, thanks for coming!

Huskies Defeat Ducks, 86-72

March 4, 2010 in Uncategorized | No comments

oregon sucksHard to analyze something I couldn’t see, but happy to report that the Huskies defeated Oregon tonight, 86-72, behind a career-high 34 points from Quincy Pondexter.

The Dawgs trailed by one at the half, but took over in the second, on a night when every Husky big man had at least three fouls.

Matthew Bryan-Amaning just missed his second straight double-double, finishing with eight points, ten rebounds. Isaiah Thomas had 14 points and Justin Holiday had 10.

Parting thoughts:

Really? In this day and age, we can’t get a late-season, key matchup on television? Unacceptable.

Sounds like Quincy played his way back into the Player of the Year discussion, huh?

The Dawgs need three more wins to dance, and then I believe we’re in a VERY good spot. Win at Oregon State, beat our first round opponent, beat ASU (or the team that beats ASU) in the second round, and WE ARE IN. That’s how I see it.

14-point victory aside, I don’t want Oregon in the first round. In fact, if you’re asking, I’d like to see Stanford.

I don’t want the season to end. I know we’re probably not going to be national champions, but each year is such a fun ride. Really hoping the Dawgs keep winning so we get to keep watching.

Thanks for coming!

Tags: ,

Huskies Salvage Thin At-Large Hopes with Win at Pullman

February 28, 2010 in Uncategorized | 14 comments

Isaiah drives vs. cougsGreat win for the Dawgs tonight in Pullman. The Huskies defeated the Cougars, 59-52, and kept a small amount of hope alive for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament field.

Matthew Bryan-Amaning (17 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks) has had games when he’s scored more points, but it’d be hard to argue with the assertion that this was his best game as a Husky. In the first half, the man from the U.K. looked as good as any player on UK, KU, or any other team in the country.

Isaiah Thomas had 13 of his 22 points in the second half and helped the Huskies overcome a big run by the Cougars early in the second half that briefly saw the Huskies lose the lead.

After dominating the first half, going into the locker room up 35-21, the Cougars started the half with a 25-9 run, whipping the Wazzu crowd into a frenzy.

As the Cougars took a 46-44 lead with about seven minutes left, the frenzied crowd celebrated the very real possibility that the night could end in a win for the hometown team. But, three-pointers by Scott Suggs and Thomas gave the Huskies a lead which they would never relinquish.

Observations and analysis:

Matthew Bryan-Amaning’s first 12 or so minutes tonight were the best stretch of his Husky career. Seeing him do it against DeAngelo Casto, the Pac-10’s most underrated player and a (future) legit pro prospect, was encouraging. MBA’s M.O. has so commonly been to play better against bad competition, so this was a true breakthrough for him.

Scott Suggs, minus his shooting, is a very mediocre ballplayer. He’s got the raw materials, but this is a big offseason for him. Lots of work to do.

We can’t turn the ball over 19 times if we’re going to try to win the Pac-10 Tournament.

Now that the Huskies are eliminated from the conference race, I say, root root root for Cal. The more comfortable the Bears feel with their at-large bid hopes, the less likely they’ll bring the heat to the Pac-10 Tournament.

If I’m voting for Pac-10 Player of the Year, I’ve got to pay some attention to the fact that Quincy Pondexter (seven points, seven rebounds tonight) only averages 14.4 points in road games, right?

I don’t mean to be negative, but you heard it here first (and I imagine you’ve thought this as well): Abdul Gaddy, Isaiah Thomas, Justin Holiday, Tyreese Breshers and MBA, with V.O. first off the bench, is not a Pac-10 championship lineup. We need Terrence Jones and another big body.

If the Huskies win their next two, they’d have to go into the Pac-10 Tournament as a semi-favorite. They’d be on a six-game winning streak, finally in possession of a legitimate third scorer, with the highest ceiling of any team competing in Staples that week not called the “Lakers.”

Next up, Oregon on Thursday at 7 PM. No TV, so be sure to get batteries for those transistor radios! (Am I the only one who still uses a transistor radio?)

Thanks for coming!

Tags: ,

« Older entries

Installed by SimpleScripts